Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally. This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued. Full Story
Wondering if it was just me, I recently sent an appeal to a what became a large number of my friends and fellow writers and analysts, asking for their graphic examples of this paranormal economic activity. Suffice to say, it is not just me who sees absurdities. I received so many responses that I may have to extend this letter another week or two. (Note: This letter will print long, as there are lots of graphs.) Full Story
"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months - to cover 12 months of expenses each year. Full Story
Governments, individuals, pension funds and corporations are increasingly financialized and dependent upon debt, central bank interventions and currency devaluations. Wages are less relevant in a financialized economy because wages rise slowly while debt, currency in circulation, and paper financial assets increase rapidly. Full Story
Alternative economist, John Williams of Shadowstats.com sees economic Armageddon on the horizon. Over $100 trillion in US obligations make maintaining the national debt, impossible. The actual inflation rate that most people experience is much higher than the official figure, which boosts revenues by hundreds of billions of dollars. Despite protests to the contrary, the real unemployment rate remains stubbornly elevated (Figure 1.1.). Full Story
Now, at the end of the day on Friday, many left for the weekend quite frustrated and dejected that the metals saw some downside action. But, as noted in the analysis above, the market has much whipsaw potential in the region within which we now reside. And, when it drops, you should learn to embrace and accept it with as much anticipation as you do when the market rallies. You see, with the market dropping a bit more, it allows the ABX, as one example of a leading stock in GDX, to complete this wave iii down, whereas it also brings the other products in this complex closer to the point from which it can begin a REAL rally, which will provide us with much needed clarity in the complex. Full Story
With total Comex silver open interest near the 200,000 contract level, we thought it would be enlightening to once again discuss the total volume of physical mine supply versus digital metal supply on this futures exchange. Full Story
The latest nonsense is to state market omens that have a terrible record of coming to pass are about to trigger a crash; ones odds are better if one looks at tea leaves, plays with skull bones or hires some monkey to throw darts at a board with the words up or down plastered on it. One has to determine the trend first and look at several underlying forces before one can attempt to predict where the market is headed. However, these fools read a book or two, memorise someone else’s theories and assume all of a sudden they are experts. Full Story
Before the middle of this century, the growth rates of our technology— which will be indistinguishable from ourselves— will be so steep as to appear essentially vertical. From a strictly mathematical perspective, the growth rates will still be finite but so extreme that the changes they bring about will appear to rupture the fabric of human history. That, at least, will be the perspective of unenhanced biological humanity. Full Story
Elliott Wave International recently put together a chart (click here or on the chart to watch the accompanying video) that illustrates a recurring theme of financial bubbles: When good times have gone on for a sufficiently long time, people forget that it can be any other way and start behaving as if they’re bulletproof. They stop saving, for instance, because they’ll always have their job and their stocks will always go up. Full Story
It’s hard to imagine the news getting much sunnier than it was for the earnings cycle just reported. What will Amazon, Apple, Google and the other FANG stocks do for an encore? More to the point, what will they do for the next three months? At these very high prices, the task of rotating institutional cash till January, when earnings are next reported, will be like juggling bowling balls. The task will be even harder because Wall Street doesn’t have much “story” left to sell, at least none that could conceivably top what we’ve just heard. Full Story
Even as the Bank for International Settlements was refusing on Tuesday to answer GATA's questions about the bank's activity in the gold market -- the bank's economic adviser and head of research, Hyun Song Shin, was addressing a conference at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, giving a speech titled "Can Central Banks Talk Too Much?" Full Story
A daily rally in gold, daily decline, daily turnaround and other daily price developments are both interesting and dangerous. Interesting, because nothing is as exciting as a big intraday move. Dangerous, because they can make one too emotional about a given trading position and lose the focus on the big picture (forgetting about the forest by focusing on individual trees). In today’s analysis, we feature two analogies to the previous situations in gold which should make it clearer what’s likely to be seen in the coming months, even if a lot of daily price swings in both directions are about to be seen shortly. Full Story
Of course Greenspan isn't the only former Fed chairman to express sentiments favorable to gold market rigging. His predecessor, Paul Volcker, reflecting on an international currency revaluation in 1973, wrote in memoirs published by the Nikkei Weekly in Japan in November 2004: "Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake." Full Story
Louis Navellier says investors should ignore the naysayers, US equities will continue to rally into Thanksgiving and the Holidays on typically positive seasonal-factors. With the real rate of interest at or below zero amid elevated corporate earnings, investors cannot shake their insatiable appetite for equities dividend payments, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of ever higher prices. The flattening yield curve suggests that the upcoming FOMC quarter point rate hike slated for December, will likely be the last of the cycle. Given the host's forecast of 24,000 by 2018 and Louis Navellier's growth estimate of 11%, the duo exam several stock upgrades from various sectors that recently climbed from a hold to a buy rating on the Navellier Rating Service. Full Story
In our example of this supposed quote by Greenspan proving manipulation, if one were to actually read the entire paragraph cited by the manipulation theorists, you would realize that Mr. Greenspan was not claiming that the Fed was actually leasing gold to manipulate the price. Rather, Mr. Greenspan was discussing a hypothetical methodology which MAY combat an attempt at market manipulation in the gold market. Full Story
As the Mainstream media reports about the next phase of the glorious U.S. Shale Oil Revolution, the financial carnage continues to gut the industry deep down inside the entrails of its horizontal laterals. The stench of fracking fluid must be driving shale oil advocates utterly insane as they are no longer able to see financial wreckage taking place in these companies quarterly reports. Full Story
The gold price didn't do much of anything in Far East trading on their Monday morning. It began to crawl unsteadily higher starting around 1 p.m. China Standard Time. It had rallied three bucks or so by shortly after 11 a.m. in London trading -- and after a slight down/up dip around the COMEX open, chopped equally unsteadily sideways for the remainder of the day.
The low and high ticks definitely aren't worth looking up. Full Story
The drunk in the above story is an idiot, of course. But no more so than modern economists who can’t find inflation because they’re looking only at the part of the economy covered by their government’s Consumer Price Index. But gradually, grudgingly, a handful of mainstream economists do seem to be figuring out that the soaring value of stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, collectibles and cryptocurrencies is a legitimate sign of a depreciating currency and future instability. Inflation, in other words. Full Story
It may be frustrating to watch the gold price remain dormant as stock markets continue to push higher. But while cryptos and Trump grab a lot of the headlines, you might be surprised to know there are significant forces behind the scenes that signal the gold market is not only strong but suggest something big is coming. Full Story
Bitcoin is monetary history in the making. But as Mike Maloney points out in this latest video, many of the investors in cryptocurrencies are new to the arena. Unfortunately, most have no idea how important monetary history is. The technologies may change, but the human emotions that power the markets - greed and fear - do not. Full Story
Gold bugs have incredible patience and intestinal fortitude. That’s necessary because debt-soaked governments will do anything and everything to avoid paying the piper. I’ve described the $23 - $18 price zone as a key accumulation zone for investors, and GDX is in the upper part of that zone now. Buying gold stocks value is vastly more important than predicting the price, and that value is here for the taking in this key accumulation zone! Full Story
Zero is an important number in the psychology driving demand for bullion. There are periods when investors find the argument that gold or silver prices “will never go to zero” compelling. The 2008 financial crisis and the years immediately following it are the most recent example. The fear of conventional securities and even the fiat dollar becoming worthless was palpable for many in the metals markets. Bullion demand hit record levels. Full Story
The Bank for International Settlements today refused to answer questions from the Gold Anti-Trust Anti-Trust Action Committee about the bank's activity in the gold market. On Monday your secretary/treasurer wrote to the bank's public information office calling attention to GATA consultant Robert Lambourne's latest analysis of the bank's October statement of account involving gold, which Lambourne construed to show a substantial increase in the bank's use of gold swaps. Full Story
This is my favorite time within any Cycle. Mostly because it’s one of three points within an Investor Cycle where the probability of getting it right is as favorable as it will ever be. If played correctly, it’s also the type of setup where your portfolio can be given a significant boost. In this case, I am of course talking about the final Daily Cycle top, where the move down into the Daily and Investor Cycle Lows is often the most powerful and convincing of events. Full Story
While the gold price is slowly crawling upward in the shadow of the current cryptocurrency boom, China continues to import huge tonnages of yellow metal. As usual, Chinese investors bought on the price dips in the past quarters, steadfastly accumulating for a rainy day. The Chinese appear to be price sensitive regarding gold, as was mentioned in the most recent World Gold Council Demand Trends report, and can also be observed by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premiums – going up when the gold price goes down – and by withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE which are often increasing when the price declines. Net inflow into China accounted for an estimated 777 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2017, annualized that’s 1,036 tonnes. Full Story
Writing over the weekend for the Sharps Pixley bullion dealership in London, market analyst Lawrie Williams confided that he increasingly believes that the gold market is being rigged. Williams wrote that he has been pushed to such a conclusion by the growing number of smashes to the market out of the blue. Full Story
It has been a rough year for many primary silver miners as two-thirds have suffered declines in production. Also, many high ranking silver producing countries are also experiencing a pronounced reduction in their domestic silver mine supply. According to the data put out by World Metal Statistics, Chile’s silver production is down 20% in the first eight months of the year, while Australia is down 19%, Mexico declined 2% and Peru lower by 1%. Full Story
The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports are nothing other than sentiment indicators, but as far as sentiment indicators go they are among the most useful. In fact, for some markets, including gold, silver, copper and the major currencies, the COT reports are by far the best indicators of sentiment. This is because they reflect how the broad category known as speculators is betting. Full Story
Last month the lovely Miss Puddy and I traveled to the UAE. Several friends thought we were crazy for traveling to the middle east. Looking back I was probably much safer there than here at home in Louisiana. Although things in the KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) next door seem a little shaky after their “night of the long knives” just a week after our return. More on that in a later article next month. Full Story
Some of you reading this might already be familiar with the “Parable of the Talents,” but it’s worth a brief retelling. The story, which appears in the gospels of Matthew and Mark, involves a master who entrusts three servants with some of his “talents,” or gold coins, while he’s away on business. Two of the servants take a risk by putting the money to work and end up doubling their master’s wealth. The third servant, however, buries his share to “keep it safe” and so doesn’t generate any returns. (Indeed it likely loses value because of inflation.) Full Story
I was honored to be a general session speaker at the recent New Orleans Investment Conference (NOIC), invited by convener, colleague, and friend Brien Lundin. NOIC is the longest-lived gold investment conference on the planet. It begins on Wednesday at midday and continues thru a banquet reception on Saturday evening. Full Story
Chicago will use the proceeds of the new bonds to pay off old, higher-coupon paper, thus cutting its overall interest costs for a little while. But since it runs a chronic deficit, it will soon be back in the market to borrow more, at which point it will have to pay up – since those AAA bonds are siphoning off so much money. Then the downward spiral will resume, with no more tricks available to delay the inevitable. Full Story
Of course a little attribution to GATA would have been courteous, but if The Gartman Letter can acknowledge the surreptitious involvement in the gold market by the BIS and its likely suppressive influence on the price of the monetary metal, the word is probably getting around pretty well these days, even if no financial journalist dares yet question the BIS about what it's doing and on whose behalf. Full Story
Summing up, it seems that silver is going to decline significantly in the coming weeks and months, but we should not be surprised by an interim corrective upswing (possibly triggered by a reversal in the USD Index when the latter moves close to the 96 level). The awareness of a specific turning point in the first days of December is something that will become particularly important once we get closer to this date - it will be very useful in connection with the direction in which silver will move in the final part of November. Full Story
Gold consumption in the world’s second biggest importer, India, is on track to hit a seven-year low after tax and regulatory changes dampened demand, according to the World Gold Council. Indian gold imports were also down 31 percent last month from the previous year. Factors hampering demand include increased purity standard, revised anti-money laundering act and an uneven monsoon season hurting income. Full Story
They finally did it. Since 2008, Central Banks have been desperately trying to generate inflation. They know they cannot produce growth (hence why both the Fed and the ECB abandoned this as a goal in their statements back in 2013)… so they have chosen to “target” inflation. To that end, Central Banks have maintained Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) as well as Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) for the better part of eight years. They’ve also printed over $14 TRILLION in new capital and funneled it into the financial system. Full Story
Over the past few weeks, we have looked at the effects of falling interest rates: falling discount applied to future cash flows (and hence rising stock and bond prices), and especially falling marginal productivity of debt (MPoD). Falling MPoD means that we get less and less GDP “juice” for each new dollar of borrowing “squeeze”. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
More recently, even with the Fed’s benighted lackeys in the news media blaring increasingly shrill warnings that inflation is about to return with a vengeance, no one seems panicked. Maybe it’s because American workers haven’t gotten a real pay raise in forty years. You can bet they’re not cheering for more tightening. Meanwhile, bond markets have been acting as though higher administered rates are certain. But if October’s CPI number comes in at 1.7% as expected — or, heaven forbid, a little lower — look for the Fed to amp up its warnings about how a supposed global economic boom is going to touch off an inflation spiral. Full Story
John Scurci, head of Corona Associates Capital Management, outlines his analysis of the cryptocurrency phenomenon. "Blockchain is here to stay and is truly innovative... only 4% of BTC owners control 90% of the market cap." Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente shares the hosts' enthusiasm for Bitcoin and related Altcoins. The blockchain revolution presents a key portfolio candidate for investors with a long-term focus. He outlines his personal Altcoin portfolio. Full Story
The Saudi Kingdom will fall, a longstanding Jackass forecast, an inevitable event The Saudi Kingdom will fall alongside the ruined collapsing Petro-Dollar The Saudi foundation has been the primary element to entire Petro-Dollar system This Saudi situation is loaded with intrigue, corruption, cunning, collusion, criminality The Saudi region will erupt in chaos ruin decay and gross destabilization Full Story
November traditionally marks the start of the best six months of the year for stock markets. At least, that is what the record shows. The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) has since 1950 had an average gain of 0.6% from May to October vs. an average gain of 7.5% from November to April. The period November to May has had over three times as many up periods as it has had down periods vs. the period from May to October which had only 1.5 times advantage in ups to down. Full Story
The information provided in the BIS monthly statement of account is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps, but it appears that the total exposure has risen above 570 tonnes of gold as of October 31. This compares to an estimate of close to 500 tonnes as of August 31 and an audited figure of 438 tonnes as of March 31. Full Story
So, I am certainly not suggesting that we have conquered the business cycle or that the stock market will rally forever, as I, too, expect another stock market crash years from now. Rather, I am suggesting that analysts need to be able to recognizing shifting paradigms which would cause them to change their models, especially if those models have failed them for years. We must demand more objectivity within the analysis world. Full Story
Yesterday the Financial Times continued its campaign to persuade the world that nothing deceptive is going on in the gold sector, publishing a long article lauding the German Bundesbank and its board member, Carl-Ludwig Thiele, for flawlessly arranging the repatriation of some of the central bank's gold from London, Paris, and New York. Full Story
When the next market crash occurs, global gold investment demand will likely overwhelm supply. When this occurs, we could finally see the gold price surpass its previous high of $1,900. Now, this isn’t mere speculation, as we already have seen this taking place in the past. When the broader markets crashed to the lows in Q1 2009 and the 10% correction in Q1 in 2016, these periods were to two highest quarters of Gold ETF investment demand. Full Story
This video explores the provocative possibility that the stock markets have entered a new secular bull market that could proceed for the next 10-15 years. If this is the case, current price movement is likely to continue higher in the form of a runaway move that will be characterized by steady appreciation with periodic mild corrections. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
