Gold is currently getting a reprieve as it trades close to $1240 which is above important weekly support at $1200. It’s safe for the time being but we believe that Gold will ultimately break back below $1200 and below $1100 before the end of the already long in the tooth bear market. Because Gold is somewhat of an anti-asset, it’s important to chart its course against other asset classes. Gold performs best when its strong against all other classes. Moreover, prior to recent important bottoms Gold bottomed first against other classes before bottoming in nominal terms. It appears that could happen again. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 17 October, 2014
The world’s financial markets are changing dramatically with the Federal Reserve on the verge of ending its third quantitative-easing campaign. The Fed’s massive deluge of inflation drastically distorted markets, which are finally starting to normalize. The precious metals were crushed by the Fed’s artificial levitation of the stock markets, leading to extreme futures shorting. But that looks to have peaked, a very bullish omen. Full Story
Many experts hold dim views of the current state of the US economy—but what’s a prudent investor to do to make a profit? Find out what the blue-ribbon faculty of economists and investment pros at the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit thought. Full Story
Miles Franklin hosted a Webinar moderated by Media Director Andy Hoffman featuring top minds in the silver research community. Panelists included David Morgan, Harvey Organ, Steve St. Angelo, and Bill Holter of Miles Franklin. They discussed supply/demand of gold and silver, mining production, oil prices, trading, and the bullion industry. Full Story
The first round of QE began in March 2009 and after 5˝ years, the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program is coming to an end. Since the QE program boosted confidence, combated deflationary forces and sparked an epic bull market on Wall Street; it is hardly surprising that its end has brought about some turbulence in the stock market. Full Story
From a duration perspective, is the current uptrend in today’s stock market getting risky? Based on history, should one assume that a correction may be nearing? Our main consideration of the following charts of the S&P 500 is the duration of the turning points. Full Story
Since WW2 economic theorists have posited that demand in the economy could be stimulated by a combination of deficit spending by the government and by suppressing interest rates. Full Story
Allow me to share a simple sketch I drew that was part of an NFTRH interim update for subscribers last night. The black line is where we have been. The blue line is a projection of what a typical correction (whether a healthy interim one or a bear market kick off) might look like. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 17 October, 2014
The first primary silver miner in the industry just announced that it suspended sales of silver during the 3rd quarter due to the low market price of silver. First Majestic suspended sales of 35% of its Q3 silver production. This was a significant amount as it was nearly 1 million oz of its 2.7 million oz production that quarter. Full Story
Back in the summer of 2007, when I was working for Lehman Brothers, I had a vacation to the Bahamas planned. This was unusual for me. Up until that point, in six years of working for Lehman, I had taken about five vacation days—total. But my wife and I were going to a semi-primitive resort on Cat Island, the most desolate island in the Bahamas. Interesting place for a vacation. Suffice to say that it’s plenty hot in the Bahamas in August. Full Story
While it would be a stretch to say that you run on lithium, you may stand to benefit greatly from it. Human biochemistry is one of the most complicated systems in existence. Certainly, it’s the most studied of complicated systems. As the tools available to biotechnologists increase in power exponentially, the pace of discovery in all the biological sciences is increasing dramatically. The science of nutrition is no exception. In fact, it appears to be one of the biggest and earliest beneficiaries. Full Story
The Fed claims that signs of economic stress are very low, but savvy investors feel otherwise. With geopolitical unrest expanding and central banks doing the opposite of the right things, is a currency crisis barreling toward us? See what Mish Shedlock had to say about the state of world finance at the 2014 Casey Research Summit. Full Story
I have thought about writing this type of piece many times before but have only touched on the subject several times. I had decided in the past not to venture forth because I was afraid that what I wrote might be perceived incorrectly and turn readers off to my main message of protecting themselves financially. What I am about to write assumes we will have at least a short period of time where life goes back if not 150 years, but maybe to "caveman days". Full Story
Less than two weeks ago, gold again bounced from the same $1180 level which had supported it in the past. The "safe haven" bid has pushed gold higher since but now it seems stuck and capped at/near $1245. Why would this be? Regular readers know the answer...for the same reason gold has been capped all year! Full Story
Today we are experiencing a stock market correction that may transform into a crash, bottoms in gold and silver (and maybe crude oil), and preparations for more war in the Middle-East and elsewhere. People are worried about terrorists, security, increasing debt, porous borders, military escalations, Ebola, elections, health care costs, weakening economies, lack of jobs, demise of the middle class, jobs moving offshore, and so much more. Today is similar to the circumstances after 9-11. Are the markets primed for a repeat of 9-11 conditions, a large rally in gold and silver, an increase in food and energy prices, stock market volatility, and more war? The charts, as I see them, suggest a rally in gold and silver as well as a correction in the S&P. Of course debt, health care costs, and military activity will increase. Full Story
This fall, the Federal Reserve is expected to finally wind down its latest monthly bond-buying program known as Quantitative Easing. What will the end of this $4 trillion (and counting) debacle mean for precious metals markets? Full Story
A note has been circulating among economists, calling into question the wisdom of another group of economists who wrote an open letter to the Federal Reserve a few years ago suggesting that one of the risks of their quantitative easing program was increased inflation. Since we have not seen CPI inflation, this latter group is calling upon the former to admit they were wrong, that quantitative easing does not in fact cause inflation. To no one’s surprise, Paul Krugman has written rather nastily and arrogantly about the lack of CPI inflation. Full Story
America’s still got it. That’s according to the latest Global Competitiveness Report, which names the U.S. the third-most competitive nation in the world, our highest ranking since 2008. For 10 years now the World Economic Forum (WEF) has published its annual competitiveness report, which assesses the strength of 144 countries’ 12 “pillars,” including institutions, infrastructure, health and primary education and higher education. It then ranks these countries based on their overall ability to promote prosperity for their citizens. Full Story
Have mining companies' stock valuation ever been more undervalued relative to the price of gold? As the $XAU:$GOLD ratio chart below illustrates, the answer is NO! After cutting costs to the bone in 2013, mining companies in 2014 have resorted to decreased production and shuttering mining operations. As the second chart below illustrates - mining companies, as represented by $XAU, are presently valued at the same level as they were when gold traded as low as between $350 - $500/oz! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 15 October, 2014
In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, and always, about debt management. Full Story
At the outset, let me make this clear, that I am not a gold bug, nor am I in favor of or fear of a financial cataclysm and neither am I in the pay of the Keynesians. I am just a student of gold and its practical interplay with the human fiscal behavior in the real world. Full Story
Financial pundits are divided on Asia. Some believe China and Japan are going to have their day in the sun, while others fear that economic mismanagement will lead to a similar collapse as we’ve seen in the US in 2008. Here are some opinions of prominent investment experts from the just-concluded Casey Research Fall Summit. Full Story
I can almost promise you when the dust is clearing you will hear "who could've seen it coming" everywhere you turn in the mainstream. You will hear the financial pundits say it, you will hear many titans of industry say it and you will certainly hear the politicians and regulators say it. The politicians and regulators will be running around with signs on their foreheads that say "don't look at me" while babbling "who could've seen it coming?". Full Story
After President Nixon’s gold default in 1971, many people advocated a return to the gold standard. One argument has been repeated: consumer prices are rising. While this is true, it wasn’t compelling in the 1970’s and it certainly doesn’t fire people up today. Rising prices—what most people think of as inflation—is a dead-end, politically. People care about rising prices, but not that much. Full Story
The fundamentals for higher gold bullion prices continue to impress. The table below illustrates the output from U.S. mines in the first six months of 2014 compared to the first six months of 2013. In the below chart, we quickly see that since March of 2014, production of the precious metal has been quickly declining. Meanwhile, on the demand side of the equation, we see increased demand for gold bullion from the East—especially from China. Full Story
What if the goldbugs are wrong and fiat currency isn't going to throw the world into hyperinflation? What if instead, a steadily growing economy and a new awareness of the importance of having security of supply for critical metals along with a big exciting discovery that heats up the resource sector are what pull sinking gold and silver prices and their related mining companies out of the muck? If so, John Kaiser tells The Mining Report what the future may hold for the resource sector given the current economic conditions. Full Story
“I plan on using this recording a few years from now as marketing material,” said Rick, speaking to current clients and friends of Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd., the firm he founded in 1994. “What I’m going to talk about today I think will seem like a prescient market call three or four years from now.” Full Story
It’s the dawn of another day, in the worst month of global stock market “crash season”. Long ago, I defined global stock market crash season as the August 7th to October 31st timeframe. Investors who fail to exit general equity market positions by August 7th each year take the reckless risk of watching most of their holdings get completely destroyed. That’s because history’s greatest stock market crashes, including the 1929 wipeout, have occurred in the month of October. Horrifically, many investors in the global gold community sold substantial amounts of gold stock at enormous losses in 2013, and put the proceeds into global stock markets. My analysis shows that trend continued into August of this year. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold - 14 October, 2014
With the launch of the iPhone 6, Americans now wait in line for hours to sell wealthy Chinese the smartphones at 10X the price. How did we become the waiters and they the big spenders? Peter explains China's ongoing boom and what it means for their favorite commodity – gold. Full Story
Retiring rich requires a series of choices; they are often difficult. A comfortable retirement is not a foregone conclusion, even if you lived comfortably in your working years. Since WWII, we have enjoyed one of the most productive economies the world has ever seen, yet many seniors are broke. When you reach retirement age, you don’t have to be one of them. Full Story
Whether or not the prices of gold and silver have been "suppressed" has been a topic for several years now. The "no manipulation" camp has argued from "governments and central banks don't care, to the regulators have found nothing, a scheme this far and wide could never be kept secret, to it doesn't even matter". Full Story
US policies that promote warfare and welfare have produced massively increased debt, much higher consumer prices, larger government, and more central bank intrusion into the markets. And yes, higher silver and gold prices also resulted from these policies. Full Story
Did you feel the economic weather change this week? The shift was subtle, like fall tippy-toeing in after a pleasant summer to surprise us, but I think we’ll look back and say this was the moment when that last grain of sand fell onto the sandpile, triggering many profound fingers of instability in a pile that has long been close to collapse. This is the grain of sand that sets off those long chains of volatility that have been gathering for the last five years, waiting to surprise us with the suddenness and violence of the avalanche they unleash. Full Story
Years ago when I set out to study huge growth patterns in markets -- more commonly known as "bubbles" -- I discovered a remarkable timing signature common to every single one of these patterns: They all last exactly 64 or 65 months. All the "name-brand" market bubbles in history have lasted 64 or 65 months from initial growth to blow-off top. Full Story
In the last issue of this publication, I warned that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and several other key U.S. equity markets had completed a monthly Key Point Reversal top in the month of July. As I have written on several occasions these reversals, whether highs or lows, represent a convincing indication of a change in the price trend. Daily chart price reversals indicate a change in the short term trend; weekly price reversals are indicative of a change in the intermediate price trend and monthly reversals point to a trend reversal over the long term. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 October, 2014
Ever since the world suffered a near collapse of its economic and financial system in 2008, investors throughout the world have purchased physical gold in increasing volume. However, if you lived in the United States… the opposite is the case. Not only did Americans purchase less gold, they ranked DEAD LAST on the planet. Americans came in last place due to the wonderful job the FED and U.S. Treasury accomplished by totally bamboozling its citizens into believing the financial crisis was over and they now had everything under control. Full Story
The equity markets are finally seeing action that has even the most hardened bulls running scared. In the past, I’ve been quick to dismiss selling periods – Cycle Lows – as natural regression-to-the-mean events. In a bull market, an oscillating Cycle pattern of two steps forward and one step back is what drives an asset higher. But this time is different…two steps back is completely out of character. So much so, that I now believe that the 3.5 years bull market is now in serious trouble. Full Story
Last week we saw a continued selloff in energy stocks and a slump in commodity prices, specifically oil. In light of this, I’ve highlighted some key points I made during our latest webcast that might offer investors some clarity and insight into our management strategy when such market nervousness occurs. Full Story
The stock market is in a perilous state. Ever since 2008, anytime stocks began to collapse sharply, “someone” stepped in and put a floor under the market. In 2010, the S&P 500 staged a death cross, where its 50-DMA broke below its 126-DMA (the half year moving average). Stocks were in a perilous state with the 2008 Crash still in everyone’s short-term memory. Full Story
Very interesting times we now live in, the financial system is running out of options very quickly and "blowing up the world" seems to be the only final option. I know, this sounds grandiose and dire but let me explain. This past week we finally saw some very big volatility in global stock markets. I say "finally" because it has been almost 3 years of a steady grind upward where all drops were "aborted" and volatility kept to a minimum. This changed ... "something" has changed. We are now red for the year in the closely followed Dow Jones and actually approaching "bear market" territory on the Russell 2000. European bourses have also been very weak and took out some important support levels this past week. Full Story
Many investors believe that the federal funds rate is adversely related to the gold price. Interest rate cuts are perceived as a sign of cheap money policy – a bullish signal in the gold market. Similarly, the rise of the federal funds rate is considered as detrimental for gold prices. However, it seems that real interest rates are more important than nominal ones. Are changes in the federal funds rate a good predictor of gold prices, then? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 October, 2014
I’ve been touting the ongoing bull market in T-Bonds as one of the best investment opportunities of our lifetime – a no-brainer, as far, as I can recommend. About the only way this bet can lose is if inflation returns with a vengeance. This has never been much of a worry for me, since, on the inspiration of C.V. Myers’ prescient 1976 book, I’ve been writing about the threat of deflation for more than 20 years. Full Story
Peter Schiff Summary: The Fed must continue the liquidity cycle, investors should prepare for QE 5 - there's no exit strategy, which could ultimately end badly for the greenback. The remarkable 5 year stock market rally is already rolling over, before the current QE operations are complete, virtually guaranteeing another round. David Gurwitz Summary: Nenner Research expects $2,500 gold. Charles Nenner's and David Gurwitz's models indicate that the precious metals sector is nearing an important bottom, as soon as next week. Full Story
I’m going to divide this Weekend Report up into two parts, the stock markets and the precious metals complex. Both of these markets are on the move right now so we need examine them for clues to see if this is just a short term trading strategy or something more long lasting. Lets start with some US stock markets that had a rough week with many indexes breaking below their 200 dma. Full Story
There has been quite a lot of market action in stocks as of late, so it is time for another Market Breadth Summary. Most market participants would look at the chart of S&P 500 and conclude that some kind of trouble only started several days ago as selling intensified and the volatility index jumped. However, the internal market breadth for the US equities has been deteriorating since at least June of this year. Let us look at a few charts. Full Story
Last week gold and silver prices advanced by three per cent while the S&P 500 lost that much in its worst week for two years. Is this a new trend? Gold has almost certainly traced out a bullish triple bottom in its price chart, although the position looks less clear on the silver chart. Many areas of the US stock market are already past 10 per cent corrections while the major indexes are the last dominos to fall and on their way down now. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 12 October, 2014
The Federal Reserve tried to fix the U.S. economy by Quantifornication - stimulus measures. Investors reacted to the Fed's unconventional efforts. Since the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency and precious metals are priced in dollars they bought gold and silver to protect their wealth against currency devaluation and inflation. Gold catapulted to a record in 2011 as investors wagered on higher inflation and a weakening dollar. Full Story
Every goods and commodities will be denominated in weights of gold / silver. So, for example, if we buy 12 eggs or a loaf of bread or a shirt (or a pink iphone, for that matter), we can present our debit card to the shopkeeper and he will deduct the quantity of gold / silver equal (in weight) to the MRP of the commodity from our debit card. Full Story
At the end of September, Yahoo ran a picture of Putin along side of Stalin. No too much in the way of suggestive association at play here by the media intent on pleasing the elites and federal government. The caption was what the two have in common, both from Russia certainly being one. What we know for sure is that neither ever won a Nobel Peace Prize, and neither has been responsible for inciting wars all across the globe and bombing other countries into submission, so Obomba is one-up on them in that regard, but his photo did not appear in the line-up. Full Story
A wild week as markets began to act very sloppy. Wide and loose action with large daily swings is rarely a good thing and we are now beginning to break lower. I’m still not sure just how deep this correction will go but 200 day moving averages are coming into sight now, and should provide support or the ultimate low. Full Story
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