As we very well know, 2013 was a difficult but also puzzling year for precious metals investors. The price of gold, silver and their related equities declined by a significant amount while demand for physical bullion from emerging markets and their Central Banks was exceptionally strong. Full Story
By: Karen Roche, The Gold Report - 17 January, 2014
There's little happy talk in Harry Dent's new book, "The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014–2019," yet the author sees incredible opportunities for the investors and businesses that see this crisis coming. The founder of Dent Research relies strongly on demographic statistics and trends to predict a crash starting in early 2014 and lasting into 2015 or 2016, which will make 2008 look like a mere tumble. In this interview with The Gold Report, he delves into the economic implications of Baby Boomers aging around the world, and discusses strategies for investors to protect themselves. Full Story
You are making a big mistake if you trust in the power of our economic and financial leaders to forestall an economic winter. It is the miserable season, which completes the long wave cycle. It is not in man's power to overcome the natural sequence of the cycle. Full Story
By: Jeff Thomas, International Man - 17 January, 2014
Beginning in 1999, we predicted a systemic economic collapse that would take place in the First World and would impact all other economies. We began to list some of the "dominoes" that would fall as the collapse evolved and described that the "Great Unravelling," as we termed it, would take roughly ten years. At that time, we guesstimated that the first two of the dominoes, a real estate crash and subsequent stock market crash in the US, would begin in about 2005. Full Story
As we begin 2014, it is important to recognize the levels of INSANITY currently existent in the world enabling us to understand the apocryphal nature of the times we live in and prepare ourselves to meet the challenges it represents. The world is leveraged to an extent that has never before seen in history! Debt now masquerades as NOMINAL growth and REAL growth has ceased. Headline economic reports are now nothing more than POLITICALLY CORRECT HOAXES to FOOL the public at large and mask the betrayal of the public by the leaders who hold the reins of power. ECONOMIC Stagnation emerged after the 2008 Global financial crisis and in real terms has NEVER ENDED! Full Story
Massive Climacterics such as Equities and $US and US T-Bond Tops and Gold and Silver bottoming, are developing. Savvy investors should consider putting on long Gold, Silver and Miners positions such as the ones we have recommended. Full Story
Before looking at the year ahead, it is useful to look back at the year just passed. This adage is particularly true now because little has changed. Three major markets – stocks, bonds and gold – will again be driven this year by the same forces that shaped 2013, but the outcome will be different in one key respect. This year the price of gold will rise. Full Story
The truth is that China and Western capital markets view gold very differently. You will hardly find anyone in the London Bullion Market who regards gold as money; and for them if gold is no longer money Chinese demand for it is not a monetary issue. Instead it threatens the bullion banks’ business that a useful financial asset, capable of earning many times its physical value in fees, commissions, turns and interest, is being leeched out of the market by Chinese aunties. Full Story
Here’s how I started my summary in my last Gold Report. “The odds now favor that we won’t see new lows by year-end unless the Fed throws us a curve and does begin to taper at the December meeting. Don’t just dismiss this possibility as it is an option, one I think remote at this time, but possible.” Full Story
Columnists and newsletter writers are tripping over themselves to describe what they collectively believe will be a bullish year for stocks and the economy in 2014. They point to the Fed’s artificially low interest rates and continued commitment toward a lower unemployment rate as key reasons why the party will continue in the coming year. They also believe that government intervention both at home and abroad will produce a sixth year of recovery. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. - 17 January, 2014
So Germany seems to be harassing the U.S. government about gold and making gold price suppression a little harder without quite pulling the plug on it, as almost any major government in the world could do by selling dollars and buying gold or by issuing a mere press release acknowledging the surreptitious policy. Full Story
This short study examines gold’s performance under the four most commonly predicted worst-case economic scenarios — a 1930s-style deflation, chronic Japanese-style disinflation, a 1970s-style runaway stagflation, and a Weimar-style hyperinflation. “That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history,” Aldous Huxley once wrote, “is the most important of all the lessons of history.” Full Story
By: David Chapman, MGI Securities - 16 January, 2014
Some are calling the shift of gold from the West to the East as one of the most massive wealth transfers in history. That can probably only be determined in hindsight and only after gold prices move higher from current levels. Nonetheless, the shift of gold from the West to the East appears to be set and it may even grow. The question is who is right? Is the West’s view that gold is a barbarous relic and not worthy of a place in investment portfolios correct? Or is it the East’s view that holding gold is akin to one’s bank account? Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. - 16 January, 2014
U.S. talk show host Glenn Beck last week commented extensively on what seems the inability of the German Bundesbank to repatriate much of its gold supposedly vaulted at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Beck notes that the situation implies the "rehypothecation" of gold -- the concoction of a vast imaginary supply. While Beck's program probably won't tell followers of GATA anything they don't know, it shows that suspicion of gold price suppression is spreading quickly now, as Beck quotes the German financial journalist Lars Schall's dogged questioning of the Bundesbank, publicized first by GATA, over the Bundesbank's assertion that Germany's gold bars at the Fed were melted and recast before being returned. Full Story
Back in late 2004 during the first year of the Hat Trick Letter, my father had a conversation with me on his front porch. He was concerned about a negative streak in my perspective and a critical slant in my analytic work. He actually helped me in writing style, not content, like to correct errors in sentence construction. He pointed out lack of parallels, dangling modifiers, vague antecedents, and competing imagery. Many smaller discussions had taken place about a broken economy, absent industry from offshore efforts, debt buildup, enormous imbalances, the war machine emphasis, banker corruption, and unsound money itself. He always was concerned about the federal debt, citing it many times, and was alarmed later in 2006 when informed that foreigners held more than half our debt. Full Story
As most readers know, Doug Casey's most notable characteristic as an investor is his highly successful contrarian nature. It's how he bagged some of his biggest wins—not just doubles and triples, but 10- and 20-fold returns. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Heiko Ihle - 15 January, 2014
Heiko Ihle, senior research analyst at Euro Pacific Capital, wants to warn investors and companies about the perils of "pawnshop lending"—predatory lending scenarios that many junior miners find themselves in as a result of the current commodity price climate, overall financing climate, lack of interest from the buy side and incremental deals. In this interview with The Gold Report, Ihle outlines some alternative financing options and describes the three things he looks for in junior miners at the start of 2014. Full Story
In 2013 while gold and silver were getting slammed, palladium diverged and held its ground. It traced a choppy handle to the cup that formed in 2012. The bottom of the handle occurred at the same time gold and silver bottomed in June 2013. What’s interesting to note is the volatility in palladium has collapsed, which typically leads to huge moves in a market. Palladium probably won’t be able to rally until the pressure on the precious metals markets finally goes away, but once it does look for potential fireworks in this metal. Full Story
Every week, our investment team reviews a variety of sources to formulate a summary of the top events in the gold, resources, and emerging markets. The results are categorized in terms of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. We believe this SWOT model helps investors make informed decisions about their gold and gold stock investments. Full Story
Fire and Ice have little impact upon gold and silver. Gold and silver were money long before the unholy union of fractional reserve banking and government unleashed Fire and Ice upon our world through inflating paper currencies and deflating debt. It is time to protect our financial future with gold and silver – Fire and Ice resistant assets. Full Story
There have been two other corrections that lasted 6 months or more, from top to bottom: In 2006 gold declined for 6 months, and in 2008 the pullback took 8 months to bottom. Thus a 22 month down-cycle qualifies under the Gann definition as ‘time is up’. There have been 4 pullbacks of 16% or more since gold began its current bull market run in 2002. In 2003 price dropped 16%; in 2006 – 23%; in 2008 – 30% while the correction that began on Sept 7th 2011 and ended June 28th 2013 caused a decline of 38.5%. Full Story
In 1973, as heavyweight boxing champion Joe Frazier was knocked to the canvass by George Foreman, Howard Cosell uttered the now-famous words, “Down goes Frazier!” For those of you who are unfamiliar with that brutal event, please click here now. Are current investors in the American stock market on the verge of taking a beating like Joe Frazier did? Please click here now. That’s the daily chart of the Dow. Full Story
Some companies are better than others at pivoting their strategies to overcome inflation or other cost-increasing concerns. The best companies can push cost increases out to the market quickly (think gas companies), allowing them to stay profitable even during cost volatility. Sometimes entire industries struggle to push prices up and have to balance new costs with old ones in an effort to stay profitable. It's important to find the reactive companies when it comes to investing - and here we explain why. Full Story
The USA thrived during a 20th century rife with war, famine and depression. This was a wealthy country however, founded on principles of self-reliance and valuing thrift, saving and honest work for an honest return. Add in unparalleled productivity and economically at least, the positives more than outpaced the negatives. Until the 1980′s the United States had a Federal Reserve that one might argue considered itself a steward of a more honest (though totally paper-based) monetary system. Full Story
The biggest risk for 2014 may be economic growth. That’s because economic growth throws a wrench into the bond market, making it ever more difficult for developed countries to finance their deficits. We believe it’s very unlikely the U.S. could afford significantly positive real interest rates for an extended period. As indicated earlier, theFed may have all but promised to be “behind the curve” in raising rates. Full Story
The Gold Miners (GDX), Silver Miners (SIL), and the Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) were showing serious relative strength yesterday as the S&P 500 had one of its worst days in months. The S&P 500 was down with above average Volume. The majority of price action with above average Volume the past year in the Daily timeframe in the S&P 500 has been with Bearish Price action, which I believe is a pattern of "Distribution" as a market pushes higher and higher. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 13 January, 2014
One question that has not been asked sufficiently is, “How can China buy well over 2,000 tonnes of gold without sending the gold price rocketing?” In the U.S. people believe that the gold price will fall even further in 2014 despite indications that Chinese demand will continue at current high levels if not rise even more. This is because U.S. investors have been selling gold to move into the rising equity market. Full Story
By: By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist - 13 January, 2014
In the global war for energy supremacy, Russia has won another victory over the United States. This time, the battleground has been South Africa, where Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, has just signed an agreement to build eight new reactors. Once all of them are operational, South Africa's nuclear capacity will increase more than sixfold—from 1.8 gigawatts (GW) to 11.4 GW over the next 15 years. Full Story
Currently the mining shares are still selling at near record discounted values with the gold price in the $1220 range. At this point, even a sideways gold price could support a major rally in the gold mining shares. North American gold shares are 43% undervalued based on the current gold price vs. the value of proven and probable reserves. Since 2001, any discount below 30% has signaled a major rally in the mining shares. Higher gold prices will then be another important driver to force values higher. Mining companies that have strong growth patterns and lower cost production profiles will have these items also as positive drivers of their share price. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Chen Lin - 13 January, 2014
For over a decade, mining companies have relied on a rising gold price to reward their decisions, regardless of whether they were good decisions. Those days are over, and Chen Lin, author of the What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? newsletter, says that investors must embrace companies that can grow their balance sheets even with gold as low as $1,000/ounce. Companies that can generate cash flow and acquire assets at fire sale prices today will likely be the winners in the next wave, explains Lin in this interview with The Gold Report. Full Story
Have you seen the movie Gravity yet? If not do so because it’s great – especially because of what it can teach you about the weightlessness of space. It can teach you about the false sense of security (euphoria) weightlessness can give one, and that making bad decisions in this state can have startling and undesirable ramifications. What’s more, if there is one lesson stock market investors should keep in mind from what can be learned in Gravity, it’s events can spin out of control without gravity very quickly, events that have lasting consequences. Full Story
Throughout its 4.5 billion year history, the geology of the Earth has created an environment that allows life to thrive or causes it to die. As a prerequisite to this musing, I urge you to study the Geologic Time Scale posted below. In particular, note the expansion of the vertical scale from left to right and the Holocene Epoch (Recent) beginning 10,000 years ago. The Holocene marks the beginnings of modern man and the spread of human civilizations. Our presence on Earth is merely an instant in geological time. Full Story
The bull market of the silver price started towards the end of 2001. On the way from $ 4.02 to the recent intraday all-time high of $ 48.42 (an increase of 1,104%), several significant corrections took place, the most severe one in 2008 when the silver price sank by 57% only to jump 441% to a new all-time high. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you some charts for silver which shows a bullish and bearish scenario. As we are at an inflection point we need to monitor both sides of the precious metals complex for clues that may give us the next important direction this group, as a whole, may move. To pick an absolute bottom is next to impossible to do but one can get very close sometimes if a clear and open mind is present. Full Story
To state the obvious, gold and the Australian gold stocks had a terrible year in 2013. The long term trend is still up however this large correction still has to reverse before we can confirm this or look to capitalize on it once again. Gold is not something to barrack for so I assume you are here to make money and or protect your wealth. Gold investors can see the threat of the sovereign debt levels, disequilibrium in markets and excessive money printing. Full Story
The lovely Miss Puddy and myself traipsed off to the theatre again on movie night to see Martin Scorsese’s new film. The film starred Leonardo DiCaprio who played the amoral Wall Street broker, Jordan Belford. Aside from the sex / drugs / language that was just over the top, the undercurrent theme of broker theft from clients and total disregard for the welfare of their customers was quite disturbing. Greed, self-indulgence and self-destruction, not to mention stupidity, were also common themes. Full Story
It seems I'm in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part of that dialogue, and it's one that I get to share directly with you. Last week we started a conversation looking at what I think is the most positive and dynamic aspect of our collective future: The Human Transformation Revolution. Full Story
Dubai’s gold and jewellery merchants told Gulf News that they have tapped a new seam of customers at this year’s Dubai Shopping Festival with Arab buyers from Syria, Egypt and Iran now far more important to the market. They said this trend started back in November but has been particularly evident since January 2nd and the promotions of the DSF.. The Old Gold Souk is festooned with promotional banners for jewellery and gold bars and coins have largely disappeared from window displays as ArabianMoney noted on a visit last week. Full Story
2013 was no doubt quite a bad year for gold investors. The huge sellout was a primary reason for this. Yet despite this major change in long positions, the outlook for gold does not seem bad. In the second part of 2013 a big debate about the central bank’s policy was initiated. It was all about Bernankish interventions in the financial market, which resulted in the explosion in the Fed’s balance sheet from billions to trillions of dollars. Since 2008 it was no doubt a huge transformation, and one that had a long lasting influence until the present day. Full Story
Show Highlights: Guest Interviews. Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Host answers phone calls and email questions. Guests: David Morgon, Silver-investor.com Harry S. Dent Jr., The Great Depression Ahead Full Story
This is an interesting development in the Gold futures. There is a "Rounding Bottom/Cup" type pattern on the 30 minute chart going back the past week which can be seen on the picture below. The path of least resistance is higher above here in the near term. The open interest on the short side that was put on during this past week here will begin to feel some heat of a losing position should price and volume begin to pick up to the upside as this pattern is "ripe" for breakout here. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 January, 2014
After a brief pause in the decline of Comex Gold inventories, it looks like it has continued once again as there were several big withdrawals over the past few days. Not only was there a large removal of gold from the Comex today, the Registered (Dealer) inventories are now at a new record low. Scotia Mocatta had 63,786 oz of gold withdrawn from its Registered category. This is quite significant as Scotia Mocatta's total Registered gold inventories fell 41% in one day from 152,409 oz to 88,532 oz. Full Story
Here is some very cogent rationale for owning gold and silver. None pertain to the ever-ending reasons that demonstrate great demand. Everyone has been hearing about them in a steady stream for the past year, and the impact on the market has been nil. Often in tandem with the latest news, like record coin sales from...[pick a mint or country], is the lament from PM holders on where the current price of gold is, at lows for the past two + years, making many question the validity of owning PMs. Full Story
Those of you who have known me any length of time know that I love to say ‘they always tell you what they’re going to do’. I had a really scintillating discussion yesterday with two fellow economists as to why that might be and we’ll shelve that for now, but let’s just say this: ‘they’ are at it again. Last week I referenced an IMF working paper penned by Harvard dynamic duo Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart regarding asset confiscation and other ways to wiggle our way our the current economic morass that we find ourselves in. Full Story
On the fateful day of June 19th, the Fed misjudged its ability to control markets – by hinting it might taper if the economy improved. Helicopter Ben was drunk with confidence, given QE had pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.1%; whilst the PPT had taken the Dow to new highs; the Cartel had smashed PMs to oblivion; and nary an “inflation fear” was reported anywhere. Full Story
Gold finished Friday up +21.70 to 1248.50 on heavy volume, silver was up +0.62 to 20.16 also on heavy volume. The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.87 to 61.93. GDX was up +3.48% on heavy volume, while GDXJ was up +5.18% also on heavy volume. An unexpectedly bad Nonfarm Payrolls number released at 0830 EST triggered the move, causing the metals and miners to close right up against their respective 50 day MAs. Full Story
What an amazing week. Biotech companies are starting to light up like some tech stocks in the late 90’s but they are still so cheap here, and moving huge! Who knows what the future will bring but when stocks move, my job is to identify them and understand their behaviour quickly and capitalize on it. So far it’s a stunning start to 2014 even while markets are not moving too much to the upside. Full Story
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