By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 16 September, 2016
Gold’s young bull market has totally stalled out in the past couple months. This major loss of momentum following gold’s powerful surges in 2016’s first half is really souring sentiment and vexing traders. They are trying to figure out if gold’s recent consolidation drift is the dawn of a new bearish trend or a healthy pause within an ongoing bull. The likely answer comes from understanding what’s causing gold’s high consolidation. Full Story
We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the origins and construction of both the the euro and the EU itself could ensure the next financial crisis commences in the coming months, and will exceed the capabilities of the ECB to save the system. Full Story
Jeffrey Nichols, Senior economist of Rosland Capital returns with his latest insights on the financial markets and the geopolitical drama. His work indicates that once the $1,400 gold hurdle is surpassed, the former bull market return in all of its glory, ascending over $2,000. Positive seasonal factors will continue to add upward momentum to the sector, due to demand stemming from Christmas, Hanukkah and Indian festivities. Full Story
In this publication, we warn regularly of the risk involved in storing wealth in banks. They’ve made the removal of your deposits increasingly difficult, in addition to colluding with governments to allow them to legally freeze or confiscate your money. To add insult to injury, they’re creating reporting requirements with regard to the contents of safe deposit boxes and restricting what can be stored in them – again, at risk of confiscation. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 16 September, 2016
The hundreds of trillions of dollars of notional derivative value and the associated counterparty risk is a potential life-threatening problem for some of the major banks, but if you believe that derivatives are like a sword of Damocles hanging over the global economy then you’ve swallowed the propaganda hook, line and sinker. The claim during 2008-2009 that the major banks had to be bailed out to prevent a broad-based economic collapse was a lie and it will be a lie when it re-emerges during the next financial crisis. Full Story
The Indian gold market is one of the world’s largest and most extensive gold markets, with an estimated 23,000 tonnes of private gold held within India’s borders. In India, gold is revered and held as a traditional form of savings and wealth preservation, particularly in the form of gold jewellery. With minimal gold mining production, Indian gold demand is predominantly met by gold imports, both official and unofficial (smuggling). Full Story
In previous articles, we have examined the gold’s performance in different election cycle years. Now, we deepen our analysis and investigate the behavior of the shiny metal in each presidential cycle in more detail. We analyze how gold performed under each President and which governing party (or whether the new President is an incumbent or a newcomer) affects the gold market the most. Full Story
The urgency for owning a financial put against the stupidity of central planners and politicians grows by the minute. We continue to witness a multifaceted array of failure heaped upon failure while repeating history on a dramatic scale. One of the great new wonders of the modern world is the credibility given to high profile economists. Full Story
It is an election year and the media has obsessed over Trump’s inflammatory statements and HRC’s health. A recent Google search for “Hillary’s health” showed 140 million hits. Parkinson’s has been widely mentioned. Both issues could affect the outcome of the Presidential election IF the election is honest and has not already been decided. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 15 September, 2016
On August 30th, the European Union (EU) Commission ordered the Irish government to reclaim some $14.6 billion of so-called back taxes plus interest from Apple Inc. The order challenged sovereign tax authority within the EU and well-established international tax rules. The aggressive stance of the Commission set off a furor of high level political argument among taxing authorities and multinational companies accustomed to complex but legal international tax planning. Apple's case was big enough to place it at center stage in a simmering problem for governments in striking a balance between attracting businesses, creating jobs, generating taxes and deciding precisely what type of earnings can be taxed. Full Story
Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International rejoins the show, with positive comments on the upcoming September 30th, US Federal Budget. The current budget deficit exceeds $107 billion, the persistent issue implies the potential for challenging economic conditions on a national scale. Many top guests on this show have championed the idea of a balanced US Federal budget, including Dr. Ron Paul. Unfortunately, the issue remains political kryponite, anathema to the election process. Full Story
Here – as with all previous entries in this series – the original sin is the past three decades’ debt binge. When you borrow excessively you steal from future growth, and people living in Lord Keynes’ long run end up suffering for your mistakes. Slow growth, crappy, low-paying jobs, and soaring costs for basic necessities become the new normal, and the victims are those least able to afford it. Our kids reap what past generations of profligate voters and their chosen representatives have sown. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 September, 2016
Stocks looked shaky on the close Wednesday, having failed to muster the short-squeeze rally we’ve come to expect in the final hour or so of every session. If the broad averages continue to fall, Ricks Picks subscribers will be well prepared. Many reported legging into an SPY put spread that could yield a position gain of $4440 or more for those who followed my instructions to-the-letter. No loss is possible, since all subscribers who put on the position, which began as a calendar spread but was rolled into a vertical bear put spread, reported having done so for an effective credit of at least $55 per spread. Full Story
As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character. The world has rarely seen a bond bull market that is not only 36 years old, but also shows few signs of ending. And never before in recorded history have interest rates gotten so low across the board. Full Story
So, you’re planning to be a responsible American on Election Day and cast your vote. Fine, but ask yourself why. Is it any more than a ritual? Is the engine of government something you can control through elections you don’t control? Do you think if you put a voice for liberty in the Oval Office that voice would last long? Are any of the candidates even selling liberty? Are you looking to buy it, or do you just want in on the scam? Full Story
Had you acquired a 100 ounce bar of physical gold on December 31, 1999, your total out lay would have been $29,025.00. The value of that same gold bar today would be approximately $132,800.00 or could easily pay off a mortgage, provide for a child’s college education or a great many other items that would change the lives of most people reading these words. More than 4 fold rise in the value of any asset, over the course of seventeen years would be considered a winner. Full Story
I've got to start off by saying, I'm rather starting to feel quite comfortable in this little shunned-off corner of the room with the numerous "conspiracy theorist" labels hung up on the wall, as each passing month, one of those labels comes crashing to the ground and is stamped into the dirt. I've written in the past about of number of these "conspiracy" theories, many of which have surrounded the precious metals space and the financial world. Most of these have been proven correct and have moved into the mainstream media. Full Story
The Gold to Housing ratio is a quite useful measure for evaluating relative values between real estate and gold, and also has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends. In light of the surge in gold prices in 2016, and the continuing strength in housing – it is worthwhile revisiting this basic measure, because the results aren't at all what most people likely think they are. Full Story
I believe the Dow-Gold ratio is about to turn in favor of precious metals in a big way. I am focused on mining companies that are backed with assets rather than pipe dreams like so many tech stocks (NASDAQ:QQQ). While the lemmings were chasing stocks in 2015 I continued to build positions in deeply discounted mining companies with near term production, top notch management teams and in mining friendly jurisdictions. Full Story
The market action this past week started out quite strong, and raised many hopes. However, since I do not have a clear 5 wave structure confidently developed off the recent lows, I have to put hopes aside, and view the market in a dispassionate manner. And, that dispassionate manner sees strong potential for another drop in the complex. Full Story
So it appears my concerns about the larger equity complex here in the Fall may be unfounded – no matter rapidly deteriorating fundamentals, technicals, or political backdrop. Yup – apparently Hillary could drop dead tomorrow and it wouldn’t amount to a ‘hill of beans’; the European Union fail; the euro disintegrate. Why? Answer: SDR’s. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 14 September, 2016
The following chart shows that on a monthly closing basis, bank reserves held at the Fed peaked in August of 2014 at $2.79T and by August-2016 had shrunk to $2.35T. This amounts to a $440B decline in bank reserves over the space of two years. Furthermore, $320B of this $440B decline happened since last October. Does this mean that while the financial world vigorously debates whether the Fed will/should take a ‘baby step’ along the rate-hiking path next week, behind the scenes the Fed has been tightening the monetary screws for 2 years and especially over the past 10 months? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 14 September, 2016
Today’s price action generated a distinctive pattern on the intraday charts with the potential to tell us whether the powerful selling we’ve see in recent days might be the beginning of a bear market. Notice how this morning’s follow-through to Friday’s steep plunge stopped almost precisely at the red line around mid-session. The line is a key ‘Hidden Pivot’ support at 2114.75, and if it were to be breached decisively — meaning by about six or seven points — that would strongly imply more downside is coming to at least 2073.50, the ‘D’ target of the pattern. Full Story
The financial system (mistaken for the economy) is so bloated with risk that any number of events could trigger an explosion that would reach much further than anyone could imagine – causing irreparable damage. Because of the size and the massive dependence on the institutions (who have evolved like a cancer from big finance), the resulting carnage will reach out much further than the primary institutions. Full Story
It wasn’t until yesterday that I could draw in a possible bottom rail of a possible diamond pattern on the GDXJ. This potential diamond pattern has been forming since the first of July. As it stands right now the diamond pattern has completed five reversal points which theoretically puts it into a reversal pattern category. With that said the bounce yesterday may have started the all important 6th reversal point to the upside which if completed would make this diamond a consolidation pattern to the upside. Keep in mind this potential diamond is still developing with no resolution either way yet. Full Story
Good things come to those who wait, because patience is a virtue. Over the past few days, various Fed presidents and governors have made both hawkish and dovish statements. The US stock market and gold stocks have reacted violently to these statements. It’s important for all gold stock investors to understand that anything can happen at next week’s critically important FOMC and BOJ meetings. Full Story
The problem is, that when you “cry wolf” too often, you are eventually called out. And no one has cried wolf more than the Fed, in constantly finding reasons not to raise rates, despite their unwavering claim of a “strong” economy – which tellingly they prefer to refer to as merely “recovering,” six years into what is now the third longest “expansion” in U.S. history. During which, GDP growth – book cooking and all – is barely 1%; manufacturing activity has collapsed; debt has exploded; real unemployment has surged to Depression Era levels; and corporate earnings have declined for six quarters running. Full Story
Many individuals sit back and look wistfully at the 1st stage of the Gold Bull Market they missed. It is interesting that people focus on what they lost but not what they might miss. Since Gold topped out in 2011, many sectors took off; one could have deployed a portion of one’s funds in any of these sectors and walked away with healthy gains. Instead, the classic Gold bug clung to Gold and let all these opportunities slide away. Full Story
At first glance, it sounds like an attractive option. Investors buy metals to increase privacy and control. Some do not want to rely on third-party vaults and would prefer having personal access to their metals 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We totally agree with this sentiment when it comes to precious metals that you personally and directly own. But anyone considering this “self-storage IRA” scheme should be extremely careful and aware of the risks. Full Story
A few weeks ago, I shared with you what I brought home from my trip to Toronto, Vancouver and New York City, where I had met with gold fund analysts. The current gold bull run began in January, but as I told you, the general retail investors weren’t buying then. The only people buying that early were quants and huge hedge funds. The question, then, was: What factors or models were the quants using to uncover gold’s meteoric rise this year? Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 September, 2016
Unfortunately for most Americans, they believed the hype and are now back to driving BIG SUV’s and trucks that get lousy fuel mileage. And why not? Americans now think the price of gasoline will continue to decline because the U.S. oil industry is able to produce its “supposed” massive shale oil reserves for a fraction of the cost, due to the new wonders of technological improvement. I actually hear this all the time when I travel and talk to family, friends and strangers. I gather they have no clue that the Great Bakken Oil Field is now down a stunning 25% from its peak in just a little more than a year and half ago. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 September, 2016
The Wall Street Journal inadvertently forecast Monday’s vicious short-squeeze rally with this headline: Calm Market Turns Choppy. Strictly speaking, the word “choppy” implies that stocks have moved both up and down. In this case, however, they had only moved one way — i.e., steeply down — at the time the headline was written. How did the editors at the Journal “know” that a buying panic on Monday would turn Friday’s plunge into “chop”? Actually, they didn’t. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, President of GoldSeek.com - 12 September, 2016
Brazil Resources has added another sizable gold project to its growing portfolio after acquiring Sunward Investments Ltd. and its Titiribi project in Colombia making Brazil one of the most leveraged gold stocks. In the deal that closed in early Sept., Brazil Resources (TSX-V:BRI) issued Sunward’s parent company, NovaCopper Inc., five million shares, plus one million warrants at $3.50 – above the market price. In return, Brazil Resources gained control of a nearly 40-sq.-km land package in the highlands of central Colombia and significantly increases the company’s gold holdings, likely by several million ounces. Full Story
Well we've got some pretty good price action here over the last week or so in the metals, which was driven by that lackluster jobs report that came out last Friday. Now, I recall going back a couple of weeks and following your work there at TF Metals, you were looking for a sell off there at the end of August. And that's exactly what happened. You believed we would get a bounce back immediately following that and sure enough that's what we got. Full Story
Cook: What’s happening in the silver market is hard to understand right now. Can you simplify it for us? Butler: First you must understand the price of silver is set on the COMEX by two large opposing forces. On the short side are the big banks or traders led by JPMorgan. Four of these big traders are short 72% of the total commercial short position. Full Story
It should be clear that higher prices for necessities such as energy, food, and all imports will reduce the standard of living for the majority of Americans. Loss of reserve currency status for the US dollar will be financially catastrophic for many individuals and businesses. Diversions and force may be needed. When you can see the road ahead, preparation is sensible. Full Story
Friday’s sell-off was the worst day since BREXIT. BREXIT was supposed to be a crisis, but the Central Banks ramped the markets higher to maintain the narrative of their omnipotence. Because no one believed the ramp job, the bulls didn’t want to commit to buying at new all-time highs. But because the Bears got shredded from the manipulation, they were scared to sell. The end result was a 40-day snooze fest of a market in which stocks went nowhere. This was a 1 in 100 year event. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, up 0.22 percent. According to Bloomberg, gold traders and analysts were bullish for the first time in three weeks on the back of the Federal Reserve outlook. In fact, holdings in ETFs backed by the metal climbed by 13.8 metric tons in the first two days of the week, as seen in the chart below. Full Story
A day of reckoning approaches – even the oligarchs know this – and it’s coming closer faster every day. No, I’m not playing with words here, or your sensibilities. However, because our situation has been in hyper-bloat for so long now, essentially measured by stock market lows in 2009, this statement is simple fact. A day of reckoning approaches – and it’s coming closer faster every day. It’s that simple, whether you want to face up to this inevitability or not. And it will arrive for all the reasons we discuss on these pages every week, some of which, the important ones, we will discuss here again today. Full Story
Boston FED President Rosengren last week warned of the economy overheating? Really! That is an absolute lie. The world’s seventh largest container company just went belly up. CAT has had four straight years of monthly sales declines. Agrium and Potash are merging because the chemicals and agriculture business are moribund. Oil is $45 here in the states and demand is abysmal. Full Story
Given the likelihood that silver will become the new (old) standard by which wealth is measured, the risk of becoming poorer (in silver ounces) is greatly increased. Earning income, from a business or employment remain of the best ways to continue increasing one’s silver ounces, but to maintain one’s real income levels (in terms of silver ounces) increasingly higher income (in terms of other measures) will be required. Full Story
Now is the time I would normally be sending you Thoughts from the Frontline, but this week I’m calling an audible. Rather than leave you wondering, I’m sending this short note to explain the new game plan. I’ve spent the last few days working on what I think will be one of my most important newsletters ever. The more I researched and wrote, the more concerned I got at the direction our monetary and political authorities want to take us. The words I wrote led me to conclusions I could not believe. Full Story
The prices of both metals were down this holiday-shortened (Labor Day in the US) week, especially on Friday. The decline corresponded to a spike in interest rates. Of course everyone watched the action of the stock market on Friday. Whatever the proximate cause, the root is credit. When borrowing to buy assets does not work, then selling assets to repay debt is required. It could be companies who bought their own shares, it could be European banks. It could be leveraged investors speculators in their Etrade accounts. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns to the show with insights on the PMs sector. The gold cartel continues to be the key shadowy force behind downward price movements in the PMs sector. Physical supply constraints are hindering their efforts, as evidenced by the sharp recovery in price in recent weeks. Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors returns with comments on the financial markets. Our guest is monitoring the gold to silver ratio closely, noting the predictive powers, similar to a credit spread or yield curve. Full Story
Central banks buying even high-grade bonds was, not so long ago, seen as a risky and experimental departure from commonly understood practice, something to do temporarily in an emergency. But a central bank buying junk bonds (and equities, as the Japanese and Swiss banks have been doing) is something altogether different because it changes the nature of the marketplace. In a functioning capitalist system, badly-run companies aren’t just expected to fail, they must fail in order to show everyone else what not to do. Full Story
The gold sector is taking the correction it needs to take for new investment opportunity. I know I don’t sound like a team player in the gold “community” and that is because the bear market taught me the depths to which some gold bugs would sink in order to keep the herd invested or at least interested, as if this were the only asset class in the world. As the bull market took hold in 2016 many gold experts continued on as if there had never been an intervening, wealth destroying 4 year period from 2012 through 2015. Full Story
How should holders of PM stocks handle this correction? Most important of all is realizing first off that it is only a correction, and having an idea of where it is likely to end, as set out here, should help. There are several ways to handle it depending on what type of investor or trader you. One approach is to sell holdings now, assuming the sector doesn’t open heavily down on Monday, with the aim of buying them back when GDX drops into the support zone – this approach risks being left stranded if the sector turns up from here. Full Story
The gold price traded quietly sideways until around 1:40 p.m. China Standard Time on their Friday afternoon. At that point 'da boyz' showed up - and it was mostly down hill for the rest of the day - and through the after-hours market as well. Gold was closed just off its low tick. The high and low were reported as $1.343.60 and $1,331.20 in the December contract. Full Story
We’ve been following the GDX as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which is showing the on going correction or consolidation phase of the first big move up off the January low. This first daily chart shows the unbalanced double top which is the first reversal point in this new consolidation phase. The double top has a price objective down to the 24.50 area which was almost touched late last week. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 11 September, 2016
The failure of Gold and gold stocks to sustain recent gains coupled with a strong selloff to close the week dashes any hope that the correction ended last week. The charts and probabilities argue that the sector remains in a larger correction and perhaps has started the C portion of a typical A-B-C (down-up-down) correction. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 September, 2016
Is such involvement really consistent with "a market that hardly anyone cares about"? Or is it consistent with a market that central banks care very much about and that Saville and other technical analysts know very little about and want to know very little about, lest it undermine their technical analysis business? Full Story
China is now in pole position as regards annual global gold mining output. Much if not all of Chinese domestic gold mining output is refined into standard gold by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) approved refiners and then sold through the SGE. A lot of recycled gold in China also flows through the same refineries. As of 2013, there were at least 35 refiners across China accredited by the SGE to deliver gold ‘Ingots’ (bars of weights 12.5 kg, 3 kg and 1 kg) on the Exchange. Full Story
Gold gained just 0.59% in the end this past week but has moved well off support at $1,310. Tuesday saw a strong move higher in gold up near the $1,365 resistance area before falling back for a little rest. As long as we hold above $1,330 then we remain on the move up to the $1,380 resistance level at the top of this box formation. Full Story
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