By: The Gold Report and Mickey Fulp - 16 July, 2010
A professional investor with Boy Scout genes in his DNA, Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp picks winners in the junior resource sector based on three criteria: share structure, people and projects. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, Mickey touches on how he studies up on such key factors as insider holdings that indicate management's skin in the game and the public float necessary for liquidity. Full Story
Bad news surrounded us for weeks. The summer doldrums have sunk the S&P 500 by 15%. China’s manufacturing activity growth has fallen sharply. “Depression” was making it back into the headlines. Tax hikes looming on the horizon were a very real concern for everyone. It was looking so bad the Fed even signaled it was eyeing kicking off another round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. printing money). Full Story
We live in an era of unparalleled confusion on monetary and economic issues. It’s almost like a shoot-out among the economists in the Old West, except that here you can’t tell the good guys from the bad guys. You read so many conflicting reports, editorials, and newsletters that it’s easy to get befuddled. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 16 July, 2010
There is an ongoing debate among investors and economists about whether the US economy is in the midst of an economic recovery or at the edge of a double-dip recession. Both sides of the debate seem too optimistic as even those who are cautious about the economy are only assigning a 50% chance to the double dip scenario. In our view, the economy is in a depression and, therefore, the argument should be centered on how long it will take people to realize the extent of the economy’s problems. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 16 July, 2010
Naturally in the wake of the recent stock-market selling, bearish theories have made a major resurgence. You can’t turn on CNBC for 5 minutes, let alone open a financial newspaper, without seeing endless reasons why the stock markets are doomed to spiral ever lower. But the little-discussed contrarian case against these mainstream arguments is pretty compelling today. Full Story
By: David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 16 July, 2010
Recent conferencing in Toronto was another waypoint in the transit of global authority. The G8 (G7+Russia) economics discussion group began broadening a decade ago with creation of a forum of economic ministries. The western banking crisis pushed that larger forum to heads of government level. Full Story
The fact that a person who held the Dow Stocks throughout the first decade of the 21st century enjoyed virtually no appreciation (and, indeed, took a substantial loss, when adjusted for inflation) provides an another Essential Clue that is of Paramount Importance to successful Investing and Trading today. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 16 July, 2010
Despite several quarters of rising GDP, and the upbeat exertions of Administration spokespeople, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has yet to announce the recession is over. Their reluctance is well-founded. Full Story
By: David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research - 16 July, 2010
Watching my children grow older, now heading into the treacherous shoals of the teenage years, has been a visceral reminder of how the human mind develops. As young children, we see the world with fresh eyes and wonderment, and then quickly begin testing the physical and societal bounds as part of morphing into our more mature selves. Full Story
The Goldsmiths 149 discussed the credit card crisis facing banks and lenders in the vein of the problem being on the immediate horizon. But there is still another crisis waiting off stage which likewise will be developing in the coming days. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 16 July, 2010
Alan Abelson, in his column in Barron’s, notes that the $9.1 billion drop in Consumer Installment Debt in May makes it four months in-a-row that this debt balance went down, and that “Credit card use (so-called revolving debt) shrank by $7.4 billion, extending its string of monthly declines to 20.” Yikes! Full Story
Our assertion here yesterday that stock-market bulls have bought into an epic swindle elicited some spirited discussion in the Rick’s Picks forum. We never cease to be dumbfounded by the fact that there are intelligent people out there who think the economy will somehow extricate itself from the morass without our suffering a period of misery equal in severity to the Great Depression. Full Story
If the investment choice is between mining stocks and physical bullion, it is essential to remember that these are different asset classes with entirely different risk/reward attributes. Mining stocks and bullion perform quite differently when the global economic environment is in turmoil, as is the case today. Full Story
Those who followed the research of the late great market forecaster PQ Wall will recall his concept of the Dynamic Web for market price analysis. My Fibonacci price grid research builds on PQ’s Dynamic Web research. A brief review of PQ’s approach helps explain how Fibonacci price grids bring additional clarity and powerful investing and trading tools to the Dynamic Web approach. Full Story
China is 2-3 weeks away from being ONE FULL YEAR into it's most recent bear market leg. Amazingly, despite the old retrospectoscope pointing out that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) peaked on August 4th of 2009, people are still looking to the "miracle growth story" of China to lead the world out of its slump. Full Story
As an investor in the precious metals sector no doubt you are getting tired of waiting and probably on the verge of giving up. In our opinion, don’t. Yes, while many analysts, including us, are optimistic of a great explosion in the share prices of most precious metals shares, our timing has been elusive. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 15 July, 2010
Trying to pick a winning trade in the foreign exchange market is similar to judging a “reverse beauty” contest. In other words, one must be able to identify the least ugly currency among its peers, at any given moment in time. Full Story
Already months into a “recovery,” we're hearing about how this will turn out to be a jobless recovery – that is, the economy will grow without adding any actual jobs or reducing at all the number of unemployed persons. While we would all like to embrace that idea, the theory that an economy can grow without anyone being employed simply isn't practical. However, precious metals investors should like it for one simple reason: higher prices. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Chris Potter - 15 July, 2010
Newsletter Writer Michael Berry, PhD, is one of the most respected economic strategists in America and a frequent to contributor to The Gold Report. On this occasion, Michael's son, Chris, joins the discussion and shows he's clearly a chip off the Berry block. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 15 July, 2010
Marin Katusa is Chief Energy Strategist for Casey Research, which probably made it easier for him to get his stuff into Casey’s Daily Dispatch, whereas no matter what I write, they always say to me, “This is crap! Stop sending us your Stupid Mogambo Crap (SMC)! It’s crap! It’s always crap!” Full Story
We took a deeply skeptical view here yesterday of the buying frenzy that has pushed stocks sharply higher since early July. Not surprisingly, some market observers think the rally is the real McCoy – an entirely normal upthrust in an ongoing bull market. “The only question is, when will you admit you’re wrong?” asked a contributor, Keith P., in the Rick’s Picks forum. Full Story
PEOPLE BUY GOLD when they fear inflation ahead. But they also buy gold when inflation arrives and starts eating into their savings – which is just what it's done during the last decade. Full Story
In many ways, the unemployment numbers are much worse than they appear. One factor has been the timing of the US census. The bureau hired some 700,000 workers to collect data, people who otherwise were having a very difficult time navigating the choppy labor markets. They went for the jobs because they were a sure thing, paid decently, and didn't require unusual skills (anyone can knock on a door and pester people about their private lives). Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 14 July, 2010
The oft-quoted American sports slogan, “Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing!” could well be attributed to the economic importance of firm formation in creating jobs. A relatively new dataset from the U.S. government called Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) confirms that startups aren’t everything when it comes to job growth. They’re the only thing. Full Story
Even the hedge funds boys are reportedly dazed by market action after their worst performance in 18 months during May. Has it been difficult to assess the markets this year? No it has been extremely hard. This is firstly because of the political and regulatory changes that are clouding the picture. The second difficulty is that we are transitioning into a new financial world and I do not say this lightly. Full Story
Midway through 2010 we are approaching the end of the end-game, the resolution of the monetary imbalances that began in 1971. For more than 2500 years, gold was money: but, in 1971 that changed. After 1971, money was no longer connected to gold. For the first time in history, money had no intrinsic value. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 14 July, 2010
Great credit expansions prompt investment decisions that only make sense within the fantasy-world created by a relentless deluge of new money. When the flow of new money slows or when the true nature of the inflation-fueled boom becomes apparent to a critical mass of people, many of the investments prompted by the easy money fail and the economy enters a recession. Full Story
If one owes a bank a thousand dollars, he has a problem. But if one owes a bank a billion dollars, then the bank has the problem. From the four years I spent in China, I assure you this truism is not lost on the Chinese, though one must never forget the banks’ nifty little ability to create their own money. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 14 July, 2010
In my monthly report to Glabbnarxx, the new despotic Overlord for this sector of the galaxy (and who, I heard, is supposed to be a real pinhead of a dork), I included the news that as a result of oceans of money being created and spent, you would think that none of the sentient inhabitants of this planet called Earth would buy bonds to receive the paltry, miserable, fixed coupon stream from the already-overpriced bonds because... Full Story
U.S. stocks took yet another idiotic leap yesterday, presumably buoyed by news of a ghastly increase in the U.S. trade deficit. Of course, on Wall Street these days, all news is fabulous news, and so no one should have been surprised when the broad averages leaped to embrace and celebrate this latest, absolutely appalling evidence of a failing U.S. economy. Full Story
By: Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Strategist, Casey’s Energy Report - 13 July, 2010
The White House might be gaping in shock that the U.S. federal court overturned the six-month drilling moratorium, but it really isn’t all that surprising. Amid the finger pointing and political posturing, the Obama administration seems to have missed a vital detail – the U.S. oil industry is in a spot of bother. Full Story
My subscribers are probably the largest group of GDXJ shareholders. If I told everyone last week that “it’s gonna crash, it’s 2008, sell everything!” I probably could have tanked the GDXJ down to the $15 area, maybe even to $10. Of course, I didn’t say that. I said buy. Full Story
Inflationary risks have seemingly fallen out of the mindset of many investors recently, with the European debt crisis causing many to reevaluate their outlook for global economic growth in concert with record low headline CPI numbers being released. Despite this, gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, continues to move up in price. Is this dynamic inconsistent? Full Story
If you are bearish and determined to pit your stash against Ben's printing press I'm afraid you are signing up for one very difficult time ahead. I seriously doubt we are going to see another credit market implosion like we saw in `08. Without a severe dislocation like that there will be no market crash this time. Full Story
Is it just a coincidence that Portugal has (or had) 382 tonnes of gold in reserve and that the amount of gold the Bank for International Settlements recently inventoried via a swap arrangement was 380 tonnes? Full Story
Once again we see another bearish piece on Gold in the WSJ. Rather than attack the author personally, we want to illustrate how the article is another example of the lack of any quality gold commentary both in general and in mainstream publications. Full Story
With all that’s going on in the world these days, ranging from the continued politicization of the oil spill (catastrophe) in the Gulf of Mexico to the possibility of war in the Persian Gulf, it should be no wonder gold is rising and hitting new highs. And that’s exactly what gold was doing up until yesterday, hitting new highs, and is set to continue in this regard moving forward after a correction. The big question is just how significant is this correction to be the first wave of what is likely Primary Degree Wave C (minimally) needing to be corrected at some point. Full Story
In 2004, Analyst John Lee founded Mau Capital Management, a hedge fund based in Vancouver that invests mostly in junior mining companies. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Lee deflates the deflation argument and discusses why he favors near-term gold and silver producers over early stage explorers. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 13 July, 2010
I got a June 2010 brochure from silverinsidersreport.com that contained an interesting fact about SLV, the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for silver, which is that Peter Keusgen, the writer, says that SLV is “the main alternate source of storage” of silver and “which accounts for around 50% of world silver inventory”! Wow! Full Story
Put options on BP may look like a tempting play here, but we wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot pole. The company’s shares have rocketed nearly 40% since late June, making them appear ripe for a retrenchment. Don’t bet too heavily on it, though, since the puts are so pricey at the moment that you could probably get better odds buying scratch-off cards at the liquor store. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 12 July, 2010
When gold is written about as money, it means different things to different people. Money is, after all, what most people see as a means of exchange; you use money to pay for goods and services, simply that. Full Story
Analysts, newsletter writers, brokers, fund managers, and savvy investors big and small all seem to love the prospect generator business model for junior exploration companies. I am no exception but my love is conditional and I don’t spread it around too much. Full Story
Almost 70 respected economists, academics, gold analysts and market commentators (see list below) are of the firm opinion that gold is going to go to at least $2,500 if not as high as $10,000 per ounce (or more) before the parabolic top is reached. As such, just imagine what is in store for silver given its historical price relationship with gold. Full Story
Gold kicked off the third quarter with a major sell-off – but the reasons behind it are not as bearish as one might think. Gold took a major hit the week before last. On July 1, the yellow metal cratered by a whopping $40 an ounce – its largest single-day move in quite a while. Not a very auspicious start to the quarter one might think… Full Story
For 11 years the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has been amassing evidence that the prices of gold and silver are suppressed. The mechanisms by which this is achieved are complex and multi-faceted. Attempting to convince industry insiders and investors that such an intricate price suppression scheme is not only active but has been active for more than 15 years meets a lot of resistance. Full Story
But today I wish to continue my theme that the theory of “deflation” propounded by the media in late 2008 is the main enemy of speculator profits at this time. I have argued that the theory is false a) because there is not the slightest evidence of declining prices and b) because there is enormous evidence of a massive rise in prices to come (perhaps the greatest rise since the depreciation of the American continental from 1776 to 1780). Full Story
One of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in. Full Story
The stock market, we know, moves from one emotional extreme to the other. Fear to greed, back to fear then greed, and so on. And a good stock trader should always be asking him/herself, are we at an extreme now and if so, which one? Full Story
Turns out we weren’t the only ones who must have been doubting every uptick of last week’s phony, witless rally. How could one not distrust a stock market that has been surging higher solely because of short-covering and the manipulation of index futures each and every night during the wee hours on razor-thin volume? Full Story
After a sharp drop leading into the long weekend last week gold seemed to have just taken a breather and moved sideways this week. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what the next week brings. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Bill Murphy, GATA & Lemetropole Cafe Bob Hoye, Institutional Investors Full Story
COT report shows largest one-week reduction in large commercial net short positioning for gold since August 12, 2008 (23 months). Fifth largest gold LCNS reduction in our records since 2003. Gold -3.9% and the gold LCNS -14.1%. Silver -3.6% and the silver LCNS -10.5%. More bullish than bearish. Details just below. Full Story
Equity markets throughout most of the world rebounded very nicely this past week retracing roughly half the past two weeks of declines. This is how bear markets work, they take two steps down, and one step back up. It’s exactly the inverse of a bull market. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 July, 2010
Markets in Europe will return to their historical tribal roots and live naturally. Most countries will be far more prepared to enter a new free market and be comfortable doing so. This would include decentralization and diversity. Getting rid of the euro and the EU will be the best thing in years that has happened to European countries. Needless to say, this won’t go over very well with the New World Order crowd. They will again have been unsuccessful. Full Story
By: David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report - 11 July, 2010
Most prevalent among the modern belief systems is that shamans of government and high finance can, by virtue of their Harvard degrees and clearly advanced intellects, effectively manage large economies. The fallacy in this notion should be evident to everyone – here in the U.S., it’s as simple as noting how everyone from the Fed chairman to almost all of the nation’s political leaders and the best and brightest on Wall Street failed to anticipate the current crisis. Any way you slice it, the lot of them were caught as flatfooted as the crew and passengers on the last voyage of the Morro Castle. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 11 July, 2010
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Porter Stansberry - 11 July, 2010
Stansberry & Associates Investment Research founder Porter Stansberry, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns and also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints, has tweaked his toolkit to help investors hedge a bit against volatility while protecting themselves against the collapsing fiat currency system. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 11 July, 2010
Last Monday I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw that the price of gold had dropped $44.20, which was weird enough since Kitco was showing the “Gold Price Change due to Weakening dollar” was up by $23.00, meaning gold should be going up thanks to the weakening dollar, while the “Gold Price Change due to Predominant Selling” was down a whopping $67.20! Wow! Selling! Full Story
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