Every major corner of the world’s economies is sitting on a knife’s edge of one type or another; the question becomes who falls first triggering the next leg down in the Global Economies and ongoing depression. All are in debt spirals as deficits and debt compound at a high rate, while the growth to service them is but an illusion of official account measures, public sector growth and understated inflation. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 16 May, 2014
Silver has suffered as a market pariah this year, dragging along doggedly near major lows. Investors have seemingly abandoned it to chase the Fed’s general-stock-market levitation, an affliction plaguing most of the alternative-investment realm. But rather provocatively, silver buying remains quite strong even in this dreary sentiment wasteland. This stealth buying will likely explode once gold starts running. Full Story
Precious Metals continue to be in a long bottoming process that began last summer. Though many quality juniors have already bottomed and while GDX, GDXJ and SIL probably won’t see new lows, the broad sector as a whole is struggling to push out of this long bottoming process. Traders always say price is all that matters and who cares about fundamentals or the why. However, the most astute traders and investors look beyond a simple tool or single sphere of analysis. With respect to precious metals, negative real rates and the direction of inflation are the driving forces. Full Story
Following up on my last article it does look like stocks have begun to move down into the yearly cycle low that I was expecting. The failed breakout was a big warning sign. After a month and a half consolidation there was no reason for the breakout to fail. By the second test of the 1900 level stocks should have built up enough energy to break through and hold at that point. Full Story
It seems to me that anyone considering gold ownership would want to know if the supports in the market that brought the price to its current level are still present, or if they have diminished thus deflating future prospects. Though the war on gold continues unabated judging from the anti-gold rhetoric issued by the mainstream financial press and some of Wall Street’s largest financial institutions, the market for physical gold stands in stark opposition – a reminder that the metal “still clings tenaciously to men’s hearts,” as British gold analyst Timothy Green once put it. Full Story
Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Group of Funds in 1973. He has warned investors that governments could loot savings and pension plans soon. With gold coming down again over the last month, I asked him about his gold holdings now. Full Story
Summing up, the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks remains bearish, but not extremely bearish, which means that we don’t increase the size of the short position just yet. Precious metals are not responding strongly (we have seen some reaction yesterday, though) to the dollar’s rallies so far, but it seems that investors and traders are simply waiting for a confirmation of the breakout in the USD Index (there have been cases when the metals’ reaction was delayed in the past). Full Story
Let’s start with this morning’s article by the great Chris Martenson, who wrote of how rising food costs are escalating the odds of global unrest. Specifically, the higher the percentages of income people pay for food the greater the odds of unrest. This is exactly what we wrote in last year’s “Inflation and Arab Spring” – as highlighted by the below, damning chart prominently featuring Egypt, India, and the “Fragile Five” nations. Full Story
At the outset I should declare an interest. In the 1980s I was a member of the UK's Society of Technical Analysis and for a while I was the society's examiner and lecturer on Elliott Wave Theory. My proudest moment as a technician was calling the 1987 crash the night before it happened and a new bull market two months later in early December. Before anyone assumes I have a gift for technical analysis, I hasten to add I have also made many wrong calls using it, so to be so spectacularly right on that occasion was almost certainly down to a large element of luck. I should also mention that the most successful investors I have observed over 40 years are those who recognise value and disdain charts altogether. Full Story
India has held new elections and the results will be known on Friday. A new government will hopefully be friendlier than the old administration in terms of allowing gold imports that don’t have outrageous import fees. Gold is part of the Indian culture. It’s normal to buy and store gold and give it as a gift at weddings and certain times of year. The government did not want money going into gold so the government curbed gold imports, causing internal pricing to go through the roof. I look for a change in the current gold policy. Full Story
Gold investors are wondering how much longer the metal will remain stuck in the mud as they await the next major “fear catalyst” that will launch a sustainable rally. Gold futures have gone nowhere recently as traders assess the safe haven demand for the metal in the wake of recent economic reports from the U.S., China and Europe. Full Story
My wife Jo and I live in Central Florida, and having ridden out a few hurricanes in our lives, we’re as well prepared as we can be for emergencies. We have, among other things, a generator, food, batteries, candles, and a water purification kit. Full Story
Countries all over the world are meeting for a purpose that concerns you greatly, whether or not you're American: disuse of the US dollar. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis the end of the US dollar seems closer than ever. In move-after-move, Russia and China have become closer allies. There are numerous examples of this. For brevity's sake, two recent examples catch the eye. Gazprom issued bonds in the Chinese Yuan and Russia and China also signed a gas deal. There are many more examples. 40 central banks have even placed bets on the yuan as the future reserve currency. Full Story
It seems as if it has been for months that we have been warning about the broader stock market being at seemingly lofty levels. It seemed, though, that every time I noted that fact that the stock market moved to new highs. Sure enough this past week the US stock indices made new highs. Well at least the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI), Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) and S&P 500 made new all-time (nominal) highs. Many other indices did not. And it wasn’t as if the markets went “screaming” to new highs. Instead, they made slight new highs and then the next day sold off. Full Story
They say that gold is a geopolitical metal. Gold is real money with no counterparty risk and, furthermore, an excellent wealth preserver in time and space. Like fiat currencies (dollar, euro, yen, Yuan etc.), gold’s price is also influenced by political events, especially those having an international impact. Alan Greenspan, ex-chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that gold is money “in extremis”. This is why gold is part of most central banks’ reserves. It is the only reserve that is not debt and that cannot be devalued by inflation, contrary to fiat currencies. Full Story
Gold is still ahead of US stocks this year despite a slew of bearish comment from analysts fixated on a chart bottom of $1,050 an ounce. The yellow metal is up 10 per cent year-to-date while the S&P has trailed with less than a three per cent gain, and trades near to a record all-time high. By comparison gold is some 32 per cent off its all-time high of $1,923 posted almost three years ago. That leaves plenty of room for gold prices to climb back up as stocks start to fall as the rotation out of the small caps and into the majors suggests is already happening. Full Story
For a long time, many in the gold and silver communities have been say that the prices of the monetary metals are manipulated. Recently, one particular allegation came to prominence because it was asserted by the German regulator BaFin. This allegation is that the members of the London Fixes for gold and silver are using their position to manipulate the price. This would seem to be confirmation of widely held longstanding belief that the markets are rigged, the long-sought smoking gun. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 15 May, 2014
Prompted by the research done this week by Turd Ferguson of the TF Metals Report showing that Switzerland's gold reserves probably were mobilized surreptitously for the smashing of the gold price in the last few years... your secretary/treasurer today wrote by e-mail to the communications office of the Swiss National Bank (communications@snb.ch) to pose six questions about that country's gold reserves and the central bank's involvement in the gold market. Full Story
By: Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist - 14 May, 2014
Precious metals tend to exhibit a seasonal pattern to their price trends, with summer weakness that leads to strength in the fall. Add to this the fact that mineral exploration in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in Canada, enters a sort of hibernation during winter months and then reawakens in the spring. With winter drill programs already announced, we typically see less news flow starting about now until well into the summer. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 14 May, 2014
A widely-held maxim tells us that money tends to flow from where it is treated badly to where it is treated well. This trend has taken center stage in the ongoing battle between U.S. states to attract and retain top employers. In that conflict, high tax states like California have been losing ground to relatively low tax states such as Texas and Florida. Politicians like to pretend otherwise but the same forces are at work in the global business arena. U.S. tax laws treat business profits badly and corporations have been looking for friendlier fields. But rather than treating profits with more respect, some U.S. politicians just want to heap on another layer of abuse. Full Story
The United States federal government currently has about $17.5 trillion in debt outstanding. What this means is that if the interest rate on that debt were to rise by even 1%, the annual federal deficit rises by $175 billion. A 2% increase in interest rate levels would increase the federal deficit by $350 billion, and if rates were 5% higher, the annual federal deficit rises by $875 billion. Full Story
The bubble in silver and gold is coming – it did not occur in 2011.Expect stormy weather and higher silver and gold prices ahead.When?Ask the High-Frequency-Traders, JP Morgan, the Treasury department, or just wait for demand to overwhelm physical supply in the relatively near future. Full Story
Starting with gold, we saw a small move lower, which might appear slightly bullish given that the move materialized on low volume. This might have been a suggestion that the move lower was not the true direction in which the market was moving, but that was not really the case. The above is the case, in general, for an opposite situation – if a given market moves higher on very small volume, then it indicates that the buying power is drying up and that prices are about to move lower. The situation is not symmetrical, because the price doesn’t stay at the same level when there are no buyers and no sellers – it declines. In short, yesterday’s price-volume action is only slightly bearish. Full Story
What does the United States have in common with Japan’s economy? Demographics of an aging population have consequences for both countries. As Japan News reports, National debt hits record high... Last year Forbes viewed their debt crisis as staggering. “Currently at 240% of GDP, the International Monetary Fund estimates that it will get to 250% by year-end. Why is this an issue? Well, when you have government debt at 24x government revenue and interest expenses taking up 25% of government revenue, it becomes a very big issue.” Full Story
At any given point in time different markets are at different points in their long term cycles. Markets can be anywhere from just starting a new bull market to late in a parabolic top on the bull side. On the bear side once a market tops it tends to go through either a bear market downtrend or a sideways consolidation that frustrates the bulls for an extended period of time, or a combination of the two. As a longer term trader the goal is to try and determine where the market is in it's cycle and to get positioned as early as possible to capture the biggest profits. Full Story
Commentaries about World War I frequently talk about causes and consequences but almost never mention the enablers. At best, they might mention them approvingly, as if we were fortunate to have had the Fed and the income tax, along with the ingenuity of the Liberty Bond programs, to finance our glorious role in that bloodbath. Full Story
By: Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man - 13 May, 2014
Chances are that you have heard something about the stunning new laws in Puerto Rico that give unbelievable tax benefits for mainland Americans who move to the island. Benefits that are so incredible that many at first thought they were simply too good to be true… but they most certainly are not. Full Story
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, Switzerland, but what you suspected all along is actually true. Your gold is gone. All of it. Leased and sold away by your central bankers and politicians. As recently as 1996, the Swiss Franc was considered "good as gold". Why was this the case? Since the early 20th century, the Swiss Franc had offered a reserve backing of gold. This uniquely sound currency had given the country of Switzerland considerable financial power and independence, yet, at the urging of their politicians and central bankers, the Swiss willingly forfeited this enviable position. Full Story
Many bank economists believe second quarter GDP growth in the United States will be about four percent. Please click here now. This daily Dow chart shows that a modest upside breakout to new highs occurred on Monday. In 2013, many Western economists argued that tapering and strong growth in America would cause a huge selloff in gold. That hasn’t happened, but should gold investors be worried now? Full Story
The Dollar is following an accurate 15-Year Cycle which is made of five 3-Year Cycles. On the following chart you can see that we are currently in the 15-Year Cycle that began in 2008. The current 3-Year Cycle that began in 2011 did not make new highs above the previous 3-Year Cycle that began in 2008 which puts the 15-Year Cycle in decline. As a result the current 15-Year Cycle has probably already topped and the following 3-Year Cycles should make lower highs and lower lows. The Dollar Index should therefore decline during the next ten years until the next 15-Year Cycle Low due in 2023. Full Story
We’ve been focusing in on the shorter term charts for the precious metal complex for some time now which is important but we also need to keep a very close eye on the bigger picture as that over rides the shorter term charts. You really have to know the big picture and then work your way back to the shorter term time frames that help confirm what the long terms are saying. Unless your a very short term trader then the long term charts won’t impact your trades that much. Full Story
The press is demanding the attention of investors more than ever. Whether it was the recent jobs report or last week’s testimony from Janet Yellen, sorting through the market noise is no easy task. Since the world is so interconnected from Facebook to WhatsApp, a spark of news can ignite unfounded fear in an instant. What’s truly significant when it comes to your investments? Full Story
By: Doug French, Contributing Editor - 12 May, 2014
How important is housing to the American economy? If a 2011 SMU paper entitled "Housing's Contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) quot; is right, nothing moves the economic needle like housing. It accounts for 17% to 18% of GDP. And don't forget that home buyers fill their homes with all manner of stuff—and that homeowners have more skin in insurance on what's likely to be their family's most important asset. Full Story
This was another short week, with Monday a bank holiday in the UK. Through Tuesday, the prices of the metals seemed to want to hold onto the increase that was sparked by an unemployment report. It wasn’t until Wednesday that the prices began to sag, almost but not quite to the pre-unemployment report levels again by Friday. Full Story
The expected recovery in the US economy has not materialized this year with 0.1 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter which many economists think will be revised down to a negative figure, while at the same time the Fed’s balance sheet is only exceeded by the Bank of Japan as a percentage of GDP. That’s depressed the dollar with prospects in Europe and the UK looking up, at least in comparison with the gloom of the past five years. Full Story
Jim Rogers outlines his plans to increase his precious metals stockpile in the next year or two, as signs of capitulation appear. He says that no nation as deeply indebted as the US has ever successfully extricated itself from the inevitable currency crisis that followed and the related repercussions. Jim recommends contingency plans in preparation for imminent currency controls and bank account bail-ins, to reduce exposure to savings confiscation. Full Story
In today's post I'm going to make the case for stocks moving down into a sharp correction over the next 4 weeks and conclude with my thoughts on inflation. To begin we need to examine the last two intermediate cycles. Normally an intermediate cycle will run roughly 22 weeks. Well in our case the last two cycles were both stretched to 32 weeks by the Fed's QE3 programs. Full Story
The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking. Full Story
In the past, it was a slam dunk. There was no nation strong enough to oppose the elite’s weapons of mass destruction, aka debt and the US military. How things have changed. The failed Western banking system is way past its expiration date. All the elites horses and all the elites men can never put back this broken derivative mess again. Full Story
One of the slowest weeks in a long time is finally over. We started the week buying into a few stocks but then we were quickly stopped out the next day for a mix of smallish gains, small losses and a couple at break-even. Getting stopped out quickly ensured we didn’t take any real losses and more importantly, it told us that things were still not ready. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
