By: David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research, LLC - 16 May, 2008
Wonder what's happening with the gold market lately? So has David Galland, of Casey Research. (publishers of Casey's International Speculator) Here he offers some insights into the current state of the precious metal... and the companies that mine it. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 16 May, 2008
-Hey, good news: the Labor Department reports that the price of gas went down 2%. Hmm…so why is consumer confidence at its lowest point since 1980? -Californians may be the last to wake up in the morning - but the first to spot a trend…and it ain't good… -A conversation with Chile's former Labor Minister…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 16 May, 2008
As China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape. This week, several key Chinese officials, typically not known for their candor, conspicuously noted the need to both stimulate domestic consumer spending and bring down roaring inflation. While at first blush these two goals might appear mutually exclusive, China's leaders do have a magic bullet that can hit both targets at once. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 16 May, 2008
Due to all kinds of prices rising to levels that would have seemed inconceivable only a few years ago, inflation concerns are mushrooming today. And if there is anyone still not worried about inflation yet, they soon will be. Rising food and energy costs really affect the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet. Full Story
For the long-term, holding core positions in Gold and Silver as well as positions in Agricultural and Energy assets should, if the investments are well timed, be superb places to be for the bulk of one’s investment capital. Indeed, given the demographics and present and prospective Resource Shortages, in the long run the aforementioned three Sectors are better places to be than in various forms of darkly liquid (or illiquid) investment paper “backed” with other paper. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 16 May, 2008
Buy silver, while you can, if you can find it. Buying silver is a peaceful action. Many dealers are still reporting delivery delays of over 1 month. Delivery delays are evidence of shortages. Many dealers are still short of silver, since they don't have any. Shortages are evidence of market manipulations, and price fixing of prices too low. Full Story
Confusion reigns supreme as the mainstream financial press throw thoughts and headlines at you as they WISH THEM TO BE, instead of how they truly are. They do this to FLEECE you and get you to invest in products which serve their interests instead of yours. Never, ever invest based upon headlines splashed in front of you. Full Story
Consumers are clearly aggravated with these high prices, but the strategies for change that they suggest are flawed. This short article is designed to redirect this consumer frustration toward what we believe is the main cause of the problem and to offer a potential solution. Full Story
By: Joseph Brusuelas, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 16 May, 2008
The interesting and generally questionable conclusions in the April consumer price report provided a false sense of comfort in global financial markets that we believe will be temporary. The finding that the cost of domestic gasoline fell -2.0% month over month during a time when prices at the pump soared well above $4.0 per gallon in many areas was behind the modest official increase in the cost of living for the month. Full Story
I’m going to say it flat out…SELL ALL YOUR GOLD INVESTMENTS NOW AND BUY PHYSICAL SILVER! This is not a joke and don’t get me wrong, I am the biggest “gold bug” you’ve ever meet, but it is time we ended their evil game. The Cabal has shown their Achilles Heal over the past few months and it is not gold but the depletion of Physical Silver available for delivery that will ultimately lead to their demise. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 16 May, 2008
I naturally jump to the conclusion that this is the worst inflation in U.S. history, and that it is time to seal myself into the Impregnable Mogambo Bunker (IMB) and shoot at anything that moves because the economic sky has fallen… Full Story
I'm in New York for the annual spring meeting of the CMRE, the Committee for Monetary Reform and Education. This group attracts men and women from the investment community who share your editor's disdain for fiat money and other falsehoods promoted by Big Government. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 15 May, 2008
-Accidents don't cause bubbles - Fed policy does…the world, again, turns its weary eyes to Paul Volcker… -The real cost of the war between inflation and deflation hasn't even begun to register…Bernanke has chosen the pump, not the lance… -Why the oil price will correct itself…everything happens at the margins…and more! Full Story
The springtime corrections are really about done. They have gone on for a couple of months. The extent of the pullbacks have been tested and retested. The long-term trends are just about ready to asset themselves again. Grand deceptions have resumed to attempt to fool the public and the investment community that the worst is over for banks, housing, and mortgage bonds. That is not even remotely true. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 15 May, 2008
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort economic data to promote their own self-interests, it’s hardly surprising that they present inflation statistics that are wildly at odds with the reality faced by consumers and businesses, and regarded with utter disbelief. Full Story
I think the recession will arrive this year. I do not expect a severe recession. I also do not think the recovery will be strong or rapid. The slowdown will last for over a year. So will a depressed housing market. But I do take seriously Intrade's assessment. We are less likely to have a recession than we were as recently as mid-April. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 15 May, 2008
The long line of exposure of debt problems by major and minor corporate entities has a long way to go. The signals by the Fed, Treasury and some corporate leaders that the credit crisis is over is very misleading, as we see one corporation after another declare some of their losses. From our vantage point we are nowhere out of the woods. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 15 May, 2008
So the total swing from a monthly surplus of $63 to a deficit of $58 billion has been a staggering $121 billion! You can probably tell by the way my eyes spin comically in my head that this is a Big Freaking Change, and it scares the hell out of me. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 14 May, 2008
The very nature of silver itself is that it is not a promise, it is payment in full. All kinds of paper promises are by nature, a substitute for silver and gold, and hence a manipulation, because their very existence creates a substitute demand for something other than physical silver and gold. Full Story
Gold has temporarily lost its “coveted” position. The key word here is “temporarily” as I believe that once the US economy rebound sets in, even with a stronger Dollar, metal prices will rebound due to increased inflation along with increased real physical demand for Gold and Silver. However, the market is not yet near that point. Rather, I see the metal markets as being in a liquidation mode. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 14 May, 2008
-The U.S. economy is still 'far from normal'…when houses go down - so does the rest of the consumer economy… -How much did 'just-in-time' inventory systems save consumers?…a look back at the 1970's… -Food prices rise the most since 1990…when you can't borrow your way out…and more! Full Story
By: U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission - 14 May, 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division of Market Oversight (DMO) today released a report that re-examines long-term and recent allegations of misconduct in the silver markets and finds that there is no evidence of manipulation in those markets for the trading period examined. Full Story
Here are a few brief observations on the current market structure, as depicted in the most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT), for positions held as of the close of business May 6. On the surface, there were no big surprises, with slight reductions being recorded in the total net commercial short positions in both COMEX silver and gold futures. Full Story
By: John Browne – Senior Market Advisor, Euro Pacific Capital - 14 May, 2008
In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!” Full Story
For the last two days, I attended and participated in the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York City which was well attended with many great speakers and companies. I always encourage investors to attend these conferences to get a real ‘hands on feel’, after all, it is your money. Meet the management, ask questions and visit newsletter writers. Full Story
As gold tries to gain traction and reverse its course on the upside, traders are starting to re-enter the market cautiously. After strategically placing stops on the downside and getting stopped out, the question is: where do you get back into the market? Full Story
Now everybody’s getting crazy in the price forecasting side of things. Increasingly, in an effort to draw attention as contrarian prophets, tout sheet vendors around the world are making price calls on oil and gas that while possible, are not likely. There are very real market factors that limit the heights to which any commodity price can soar. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 13 May, 2008
-Not your garden-variety recession…the main crisis may be over - but the long, slow slump awaits us… -The world is moving and improving - and leaving the United States behind…the globalization of inflation… -The Great Moderation was fun while it lasted…still opportunity in emerging markets - especially India…and more! Full Story
Unless you’ve been cooped up in Guantanamo for the last few years, you’re already familiar with the miracle of China, Inc.; 11.4% GDP growth, the world’s “go to” manufacturing center, a 1 billion strong local consumer market, and some of the greatest business opportunities in the history of the world. Full Story
At some point the miners will anticipate the next rise in the curve and it would certainly be nice if they do so after already having dropped to test the recent lows or preferably, break to new lows and hold strong lateral support. All of this happening before that right shoulder has a chance to even think about forming would be quite a set up for those of us who like to buy the washouts in this sector. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 13 May, 2008
With reference to the following long-term chart*, notice that oil moved back and forth within a wide horizontal trading range between 1980 and the early years of the current decade before finally breaking out to the upside in 2004. Notice, as well, that after it broke above long-term resistance at $40 in 2004 it quickly gained about $15 (37%) and then dropped all the way back to $40 to 'test' its breakout before resuming its upward trend. Full Story
The House passed two bills attempting to rehabilitate the housing and mortgage market this week. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of criticism and blame for the bad decisions, and rightly so. Lenders and banks do share much of the blame for the overheated market. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 13 May, 2008
Maybe this 'recession' thing is why the Labor Department reported that the U.S. lost another 20,000 jobs in April. In fact, the economy has shed 260,000 jobs since New Year's Day! Full Story
Bears eager to stay out of harm’s way might want to consider taking a week’s vacation, since just about every stock we track looks like it’s headed higher – including mining shares. Issues favored by the bullish lunatic fringe in particular look explosive at the moment -- none quite so powerfully, perhaps, as Research in Motion (RIMM). Full Story
In this short technical piece I want to show a few charts which do suggest a bottom for gold (and major gold stocks) must be near indeed. The recent drop in gold has spooked many investors out of their gold positions but again investors should realize that we've been there before and nasty corrections like these will happen again and again during the remainder of this gold bull market. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 12 May, 2008
-China: bigger, faster, stronger…the world's up-and-comer does have some trouble on the way… -More and more people competing for the world's resources…farmers say 'rain, rain go away' throughout the United States… -The Chinese work their way up the ladder, as Americans work their way down…only hours remain to get three free months of Resource Trader Alert…and more! Full Story
And most certainly, don’t be a gold producer, as the deck is definitively stacked against you here too. We will get back to this subject in just a minute. But first, let’s expand on that title, as it’s a beauty given global monetary conditions appear to be progressing into a state of hyperinflation. Full Story
Global financial markets are in extreme triage following the credit contraction of August 2007. It is believed central bankers are trying to restore markets to help the economy. In truth, they are like life insurance companies fighting to keep a wealthy patient alive so the high premiums will continue to be paid and the large death payout will be postponed. Full Story
Since the sub-prime crisis broke last August, there has been a great deal of discussion of a coming recession. I am calling this discussion to an end with Katz dictum #375: DICTUM #375: Nobody who believes in recessions is allowed to call himself a gold bug. Full Story
This is a difficult time for a gold analyst, especially when one doesn’t REALLY know what the heck’s going on behind the scenes. However, one must go on with whatever little intelligence one has and still make broad pronouncements. Let’s see what the charts are telling us. Full Story
Gold had a very constructive, textbook week bouncing off sharply from the multi-decade support line at $850. There appears to be clear sailing to $900, and that should be early next week. Look for some resistance between $900 and $910 but it should not prove significant. Full Story
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Gold’s corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, we were looking for it to continue to react back to support in the $830 - $850 area above its 200-day moving average, and that is exactly what it has done. Full Story
The severely overbought condition that had existed in March has more than completely unwound, as silver is now significantly oversold in the context of its larger uptrend, meaning that upside potential has been fully restored. In short the conditions are now ripe for a powerful uptrend to commence. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 May, 2008
If the American public wants oil prices to come down, the easiest solution is simply to buy gold and silver by the truckload. Wait until you see how far the cartel can drive oil prices down when gold blows past 1000 on its way to 2000! Forget energy alternatives, which will take years to implement. Just exchange some of your "worthless paper" for the only real money and we absolutely guarantee that oil prices will drop like a rock no matter how much OPEC yells and screams. Full Story
Now it appears that this ratio is once again pointing in favour of gold and once again we would favour silver over gold as we think on a percentage basis the gains here will be far larger than those of Gold. Note that this does not mean that the Gold and Silver markets are going to take off immediately however it does suggest that investing in silver could produce more gains than investing in crude oil. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 11 May, 2008
I am curious as to what 'lowering assumptions' means to these S&P people, as I have recently been told by my family that they have 'lowered' their assumptions again, too, and that they now collectively assume that I have hit bottom… Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 11 May, 2008
Why Investors Fail: Analyzing Risk Investors Behaving Badly Tails You Lose, Heads I Win Ergodicity Why Investors Fail Becoming a Top 20% Investor Investors Behaving Badly South Africa, Laguna Beach, and Canada Full Story
Gold had a pretty good week, although it was hard fought from oversold conditions. It gained a bit over 3% for the week. It is still far below its 50 day moving average, and so far is a short term rally. Full Story
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