In 1992 a book entitled “Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It” hit the nation by storm. Written by Harry Figgie, a prominent businessman who had built a Fortune 500 company, and Gerald Swanson, an economics professor with expertise in public finance, it forecast that the US federal government would go bankrupt in 1995 and default. Full Story
The measure of a man's real character is what he would do if he knew he would never be found out. Lord Macaulay wrote this nearly two hundred years ago. His aphorism is particularly apposite of modern politicians, and also of the modern state itself, which is meant to be selfless in the interest of the common good. We can be certain that when a person moves from outside to inside the machinery of the state, he or she changes from representing the people to representing the state. Presumably there are honourable exceptions to this rule, but offhand, it’s hard to think of any in contemporary politics. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels. So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally. But nothing could be farther from the truth! The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving. Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment. Full Story
For years, a trend has developed that, much to the dismay of global financial elites, has taken hold and will only accelerate from this point on. The trend I speak of is none other than the global repatriation of gold reserves from Western powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Since the end of World War 2, both have been the main depositories of gold reserves for countries around the world. Full Story
Cycles, cycles everywhere. We’ve already discussed the current state of the U.S. business cycle, arguing that the expansion should last for a while, although it is more advanced than in Europe. However, business cycles aren’t the only creatures living in an economic zoo. They are simply the most popular within the modern macroeconomics. The post-war business cycles lasted, on average, almost 6 years. Full Story
Major Market Moves and indeed, Trends, often begin with a Triggering Event (like the one coming later this month—See Deepcaster’s Alert posted March 16 for its identity) so it is essential to identify these Triggers in advance for Key Market Sectors and to deploy one’s investments and Trades Accordingly, to Profit and Protect. Full Story
Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute, returns to the show with new commentary on the geopolitical arena and financial markets. Our guest is concerned that the US US could be drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East or with NK with potentially dire consequences. US equities indexes have benefited from artificial and unsustainable stock buybacks. Full Story
We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load. However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys. Full Story
On the next close under 1309, assuming no new PriceCount pattern initiates, put on the option strategy of buying a June 1275 Put at 5.80 ob. If filled you can consider writing a June 1225 Put afterwards. Your risk is limited to the $5.80 but you can cut that down by selling the 1225 afterward. The trigger here is that a close under 1309 must first happen. I will address this in my regular subscriber updates IF this gets triggered. Full Story
The take-away? There are even more than the usual number of moving parts to consider this time around. Which means the party can end suddenly via some kind of discreet inflation/geopolitics/stock crash event or very slowly via an accumulation of Fed rate hikes, moderating growth, and rising trade barriers. Either way, “messy” is likely to be 2018’s dominant theme. Full Story
The views of about 30 analysts in the 2018 forecasts are strongly divergent. The average price of gold is projected to be $1,318, so it is expected to be around the current level, but almost 5 percent higher than the last year’s average of $1,257.12. However, the average gold prices range from $1,215 to $1,381, while the trading range is even broader: $1,120-$1,510. Full Story
Gold is trading lower this morning and most media reports attribute the weakness to next week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. At that meeting, as we have heard endlessly, the Fed is scheduled to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point, and rising interest rates are bad for gold. Full Story
WolfStreet.com founder, Wolf Richter makes his show debut with cautionary comments on the US domestic economy. The national unemployment rate remains at 17 lows 4.1% and employers added 313,000 new jobs to the workforce last month. Wolf Richter counters with increasing credit card / auto-loan default rates, elevated consumer debt levels and lower auto sales. Full Story
As our loyal readers know, at U.S. Global Investors we carefully monitor the price of gold. We pay close attention to the macro drivers moving the yellow metal, like government policy and cultural affinity spurring demand globally. We also monitor the micro drivers, like company management and quant factors that make one gold stock superior to the next. Full Story
If you’ve been following me for any length of time you know I’ve been a major bull when it comes to the stock markets. The last two years were some of the best years to be a bull in one of the greatest bull markets of all time and I don’t say that lightly. A little over a month ago we got our first correction of 12% in over two years on the SPX. Everyday the SPX would be up four or five points on the open, nothing major, and then move slowly higher in a non threatening way which made it fairly easy to stay on trend. Impulse moves like that are the easiest part to trade as the corrections, when they came, were very small of only 3% to 5%. Full Story
Our customers tend to buy more silver than gold. And as Mike Maloney has said many times, he believes the silver price will rise much more in the coming wealth transfer than the gold price will. If he’s right, there are some truly exciting times ahead for those of us who own lots of physical silver. If you’re a silver believer like us, check out our 10-question quiz to see if you can call yourself a GoldSilver silver bug… Full Story
Weiner continues to ignore all the documentation GATA has collected over nearly 20 years to show that central banks intervene surreptitiously in the gold market to control the price of the monetary metal as part of a scheme to control the currency and interest-rate markets generally. As he has failed before, he fails to address even one piece of the extensive documentation detailed yesterday. Full Story
Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Campaign for Liberty, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state grassroots activists, HB 103 removes all forms of state taxation on gold and silver coins and bullion and reaffirms their status as money in Wyoming, in keeping with Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution. Full Story
Two theories compete to explain the gold and silver markets. One, the conspiracy theory, holds that the big banks are naked short futures in a long-term effort to keep the gold price far below what it should be. The other, my theory, is that the banks are primarily market makers and they do not hold a massive and perpetual short position. Full Story
In short, the three primary drivers of this rally will be continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, generally rising commodity prices and the aforementioned Commitment of Traders structure that recently showed the Large Speculators in COMEX silver to be NET short for the first time in nearly 15 years. As you know by now, the COMEX silver "market" is very likely THE most manipulated in the world, given its relatively small size and the dominant, monopolistic positions held by a few major banks. Full Story
Fiat Currencies: When the currency is backed by nothing it will become worthless. Voltaire recognized this fact centuries ago when he said, “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value — zero.” Dollar bills (paper and digital) are “Notes” – DEBTS of the Federal Reserve. They are not money, but are merely an “IOU” issued by the Fed. We are legally required to use these “IOUs” for taxes and commerce. Full Story
Summing up, a major top in gold, silver and mining stocks is probably in, and based on the way silver and gold stocks performed on Friday and the analogies in gold and – especially - silver, it seems that the big decline is just around the corner. We already saw the key short-term signs: silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance last Tuesday, and the fact that they were repeated on Friday makes the bearish outlook even more bearish, especially that our last week’s upside targets for gold and silver were already reached. Full Story
Investors who want to fully participate in the “Inflation Era” should have a portfolio of bank stocks (or ETFs for the sector) in one hand, with a focus on small banks. Those stocks are surging higher now, and should accelerate their advance with more rate hikes and QT. In the other hand should be a nice portfolio of gold and silver mining stocks. The surging bank stocks bring immediate satisfaction and the surge to come in the miners will bring maximum satisfaction! Full Story
Weiner is in the gold arbitrage business and complaints of manipulation of the gold market by governments and central banks may be bad for that business, just as such complaints may be bad for the gold mining business. For such complaints caution gold investors about what they are up against. But such complaints may be bad for business only because the manipulation itself is worse for business. Better to expose, challenge, and try to defeat the manipulation, creating good conditions for the gold business and restoring free and transparent markets everywhere, than to pretend that nothing is wrong. Full Story
This is a truly global problem for global Central Banks which are all WAY behind the curve. And this is going to present investors with one of the great money-making opportunities of 2018 if they're positioned correctly. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short-term is on mixed signals, a pullback is in progress. The cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Many other factors simultaneously affect gold prices. Like Trump’s tariffs. Or the expectations of a Fed hike. The U.S. economy added 313,000 new jobs in February, well above forecasts. As a result, the market odds of a March hike increased even further and the price of gold fell. It suggests that gold may struggle in the short term, in line with the pattern of selling off ahead of the FOMC announcements and rallying after them. Stay tuned! Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I also believe that GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GDX, but want to also discuss the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which is an ETF that attempts to mirror the movements of gold. Full Story
The past 18 months have been difficult for precious metals investors. If you had known Donald Trump would be elected and the US Dollar would soon begin a nearly 15% decline, you would have expected Gold to blow past its 2016 high. You would have been shocked to see the gold miners and junior gold stocks trading lower. Gold has fared okay but the gold stocks and Silver have lagged. As US equities have continued to power higher, precious metals have struggled to perform while volatility in the space has dwindled. Full Story
"Wall Street and the financial sector are all trying to figure out 'Well how can we get a piece of these profits?', and the way it is engineered - they can't!" Full Story
Keynesianism is all about shifting resources out of the private sector into the public sector. The Keynesians see this as productive. Austrian School economists see it as unproductive. The Keynesians see this as creating wealth; the Austrian School economists see this as destroying wealth. The debate rarely gets into the academic journals. The debate rarely gets into the public political sector. That's because politicians want to spend money. Voters will receive freebies from the government, and the only way to pay for these freebies will be these: taxing, borrowing, and spending fiat money into circulation. Full Story
To sum up, there have been a lot of bull markets over the past century, and they all ended eventually. Why did they end? Usually because equity bull markets are part of broader expansions that eventually build up imbalances that force a retrenchment. The longer the good times go on, the more cocky investors and entrepreneurs become and the more dumb investments they make. These don’t generate sufficient cash flow to cover the interest on the related debt or otherwise satisfy backers, and eventually fail. Full Story
Friday marked the ninth anniversary of the stock bull market, the second longest since World War II following the spectacular run in the 1990s that finally met its match when the tech bubble burst in March 2000. The current expansion, which some consider the “most hated bull market in history,” has largely been fueled by extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy in the form of massive money printing and near-zero interest rates. Full Story
Congressmen Alex Mooney (R-WV) criticized the United States Mint for its “disappointing and concerning” lack of awareness or action on the growing problem of high-quality counterfeits of U.S. precious-metals coins entering the country from China and elsewhere. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, up 0.43 percent as hedge funds cut their bearish outlook. After mostly bearish opinions last week, gold traders are leaning more bullish this week on the yellow metal’s performance. BullionVault’s Gold Investor Index rose last month to 54.1, up from 52.7 the prior month, when it was at the lowest level since August 2017, according to Bloomberg. Full Story
In the free analysis that we posted last Monday, we warned that Friday’s session was likely to be volatile and tricky. This seems to have indeed been the case for silver. The white metal declined early in the day only to rally almost 40 cents from the initial low. In our previous alert, we discussed the possibility of silver topping at about $16.65 and this level was reached. Is silver about to take a dive just like it did in late November 2017? Full Story
Think back to the halcyon days of the dot com boom. This was a time after Greenspan declared “irrational exuberance”. Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998, and Greenspan decided to risk propelling exuberance to a level beyond irrational. Super-duper-irrational exuberance? Full Story
Well, Gerald, it's never a dull moment in Washington, D.C., these days. President Trump always keeps it lively. We have the never-ending Russia controversy, of course, the war of words with North Korea, and the intervention in Syria have both been regulars in the headlines over the past year. Now Trump is talking about tariffs and people are worried about a trade war. Volatility is coming back to the stock markets and some investors are getting nervous about rising interest rates. Full Story
Today, I’m going to recap one of this year’s new speakers, Karen Harris from the Macro Trends Group at Bain and Company. She has done some ground-breaking research on job automation and the future of work. Much like geopolitics, these factors define the parameters in which other trends develop, so I made Karen one of our day 1 lead-off speakers. As you’ll see below, her presentation was even more enlightening than I expected. Full Story
Do you think we will ever see a week of market moves associated with news events for which you will not shake your head? Week after week I think analysts say something so stupid that I just want to scream. As I have pointed out so many times over the years, I keep hoping that some form of sanity will grip pundits one day. I keep hoping that they may wake up and recognize the error of their ways. But, alas, I continue to long for that day. Full Story
Top Wall Street Chartered Technical Analyst (CTA), Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, revered as "A Professor of Technical Analysis," returns. Investors grew complacent amid arguably the greatest stock bull market in history, illustrated by few if any typical reactions. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his technical vantage point on Bitcoin, US shares, gold, silver and related indexes. Due in large part to the ominous technical condition of the US Greenback, our guest expects the world's reserve currency to continue to decline. Full Story
As I said last week, we're much closer to the end of this engineered price decline than we are the beginning, with the only negative factor still being gold's 200-day moving average -- and we await resolution of that. When this market does turn, as it certainly will at some point, then all these unhappy looking charts will be a thing of the past. Full Story
At the end of a deliriously euphoric market rally when the market is preparing to crash, all the Joe Sixpacks, mom and pop and the family dog open trading accounts and try to chase the tail of market action. Many throw in their entire retirement funds, pawn the dog’s collar and take out loans on credit cards to buy in as much as they can. By buying in late, they help provide a smooth exit for the smart money. At least for some of it. It is the little guys, tough from hard labor, whose muscles are employed to push the money bags of the rich to the top of the mountain from which the little guys are allowed to jump off. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
The U.S. exported a stunning amount of gold since the turn of the century. As the price of gold surged along with the massive increase in U.S. debt, gold exports jumped to record highs. In 2012 alone, the United States exported nearly 700 metric tons of gold. The total amount of U.S. net gold exports over the past 17 years equaled the combined gold reserves of six high ranking countries. Full Story
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