The stock market pullback of the last couple of weeks has shown that markets are jittery, and will likely be volatile for awhile as investors keep a vigil on rising bond yields (inflation) and potential interest rate hikes. In these uncertain times, one sector that appears to be holding its own, and then some, is commodities. Let’s examine why this is the case, and why commodities are going to be THE place to put your money in 2018. Full Story
It’s mid-winter, which means millions of high school seniors are winding up their childhoods and planning for what comes next. For many this next stage is college. But in yet another example of how we baby boomers have rigged the system in our favor at the expense of pretty much everyone else, student loans – barely necessary when most boomers graduated 40 years ago – have become a life-defining problem for our kids and grandkids. Full Story
For decades, this artificial ceiling has been raised time and time again—at a faster and faster rate—as the United States expanded its global empire, supplanted governments and placed so many military bases around the world it would make the Roman Empire blush. For decades, it has been utterly useless. Yet, you wouldn't know this if you were listening to the Mainstream Media over the past month, who have been absolutely hysterical about this approaching deadline. Which they have barely bothered to notice over the last eight years. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks weathered the recent stock-market plunge really well. As evident in their leading GDX ETF, they were already beaten down before stock markets started falling. The resulting explosion of fear bled into GDX, forcing it even lower. Nevertheless, no major technical damage was done. GDX remained well within its consolidation trend channel and is still within striking distance of a major $25 breakout. Full Story
Chinese New Year, also known as Lunar New Year, is a festival celebrated at the turn of the lunisolar Chinese calendar for 15 days until the next full moon. During this period many people are off work, visit extended family, clean their homes thoroughly and surround themselves with lucky symbols for good fortune in the coming year. Full Story
The Dollar Index dropped from 102.28 on December 30, 2016 to 91.82 on December 29, 2017, and further to 88.26 on January 25, 2018. The Index tracks the floating value of various unbacked fiat currencies against other fiat currencies also backed by nothing but debt, politician promises and taxing authority. Full Story
The Fed added $11 billion to its SOMA account for the week ending yesterday. It purchased $11 billion in mortgage securities directly from banks. This injects $11 billion into the banking system. Cash is “high powered” money, meaning it can be leveraged 10x (banks need to hold 10% in reserves against “high powered” money. $11 billion is $110 billion of leverage for the banks to use for activities such as propping up the stock market. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, continues to caution US equities investors that the correction could continue in 2018. His analysis indicates summer could present the most market volatility. The opening salvo began with the Carillion fiasco in the UK (figure 1.1.). The British construction behemoth was the most shorted company at the time, which promptly plunged into bankruptcy recently. Full Story
If you are still in cryptos and haven’t taken your profits it may be a good time to do so – at least some – and acquire a little gold and silver or add to your stack. Don’t forget to pay your capital gains taxes on your cryptos as you don’t want to be swept up in the coming tax evasion sweep where people are going to lose everything. None of this should be taken as financial advice just logic. The PM market is moving in the right direction and by the time 2021-2023 roll round gold and silver will be flying high in new territory and they will not be coming back to where they are today. Full Story
We have been here several times before over the last year. The market has bottomed, provided us with a strong rally, but has failed to confirm the major break out for which we have been looking. As I noted over the weekend, the 144-minute silver chart has been quite prescient in identifying turns in this market. And, it has still not yet failed us. But, the question is what type of turn are we seeing right now? Full Story
How many times did you hear something like that quote over the last two weeks on television? And, it was accompanied by the barrage of reports proclaiming the demise of the bull market which began in 2009. But, if you are a thinking person, clearly you had to have been scratching your head. Full Story
On the heels of news that nearly 1000 trapped gold miners were rescued from an underground labyrinth, Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and Pete Speaks returns. Our guest notes he is a "Real gold bull... haven't been this bullish on gold in 34 years." Expect a new record gold price to unfold in less than two years. His service was one of a few to warn US equities investors of the recent plunge, weeks in advance. Full Story
In the never-ending search to either verify or rebut one’s own findings, I’d like you to consider something different today. I’m going to ask you to set aside my highly specific allegations of wrong-doing in the silver and gold markets, mostly centering on JPMorgan, and focus instead on whether if what I allege is really wrong or even matters much. Even though my allegations are based upon data published by the CFTC and CME Group, I would ask you to put that aside and consider that I may have been making a mountain out of a molehill about silver (and gold) price manipulation. Full Story
Tonight I would like to step back and take a serious look at silver. I believe the chartology is beginning to speak to us that this is a huge opportunity that is setting up right now for those who can be a little patient. But first let’s take a quick look at todays market. Full Story
At some point, this de facto dollar devaluation is going to exert brutal and inexorable downward pressure on the value of the US dollar. Furthermore, at some point, the U.S.’ biggest creditors – like China – are going to say “no mas” to participating in Treasury debt issuance. That’s when the real fun will begin, especially for those long gold and silver. Full Story
There is limited upside potential in the precious metals markets in the short term. The stock markets have begun a new intermediate and yearly cycle and offer considerable upside potential. Full Story
Self-destruction usually happens in stages. At first there’s a binge in which the thrill outweighs the sense of transgression. This is usually followed by remorse, acknowledgement of risks, and an attempt to reform. But straight-and-narrow is exhausting, and because of this is frequently just temporary, eventually giving way to a kind of capitulation in which the addict drops even the pretense of self-control. Full Story
There aren’t many investment scenarios you can point to with any degree of certainty and say, “This asset is going to rise.” Saying so is usually fraught with risk, even if in hindsight it turns out to have been an accurate call. But there are certainly times when you can see that the odds are heavily stacked in your favor. And we have one of those potential scenarios right now in gold. Full Story
Many of the appliances and devices that previously weren’t computerized like light bulbs, baby monitors, and washing machines have become computerized. The computerization of these things and connection to modern communications networks has given rise to the ability to create networks that didn’t previously exist and take advantage of the opportunity to realize value from these ‘things’. Full Story
We live in very specific times. Getting a “like” on a post or picture becomes a necessary daily activity and means of self-validation. Not “liking” something that others posted or that is massively “liked” like may be frowned upon or even viewed as being disrespectful. Plus, it seems that no matter what you do, everyone gets offended very easily. When did honesty, independence and common-sense stop being virtues? Full Story
If you have a problem then you have a solution, otherwise you’re just fussing about the situation. Well, that may be true in most cases, but when we are discussing rigged markets and crony capitalism the solutions can sometimes be evasive. They do exist, it’s just a question of getting to them and bringing them to life. After swimming in the problem, as most of us have been doing for the past several years, it is always refreshing to look at some of the solutions to the collapsing economy and unfolding totalitarian state. Full Story
Bitcoin is obviously different, in that its high price and associated high production cost are due solely to the possibility that it will, at some future time, be widely used as a medium of exchange. I think that the probability of this possibility is close to zero and therefore that the price of a bitcoin will eventually drop to near zero, but at the same time I think that the blockchain idea is brilliant. Full Story
After the U.S. Government passed the new budget and debt increase, with the President’s signature and blessing, happy days are here again. Or are they? As long as the U.S. Government can add debt, then the Global Financial and Economic Ponzi Scheme can continue a bit longer. However, the days of adding one Dollar of debt to increase the GDP by two-three Dollars are gone forever. Now, we are adding three-four Dollars of debt to create an additional Dollar in GDP. This monetary hocus-pocus isn’t sustainable. Full Story
As people age we sometimes hear them say it beats the alternative, which is usually left unsaid. It’s an old joke technology aims to eliminate by treating aging as a disease and curing it. But there’s another sense in which the alternative is assumed to be far worse than the present condition. I’m referring to the type of government almost all people live under, which is the nation state. As bad as states might be — we’ve all been taught — it certainly beats the alternative, anarchy. Really? Full Story
The U.S. has been a net importer of energy since 1953, but that’s set to change early next decade, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its highly anticipated Annual Energy Outlook 2018, the agency forecasts that the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by as early as 2022, thanks in large part to the boom in shale oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production as well as the relaxation of export restrictions. Full Story
You may recall that September 8 was the day the bond market abruptly turned, taking with it the USDJPY and DXY. In the wee hours of September 8, the Dollar Index hit 91.01, the USDJPY hit 107.32 and, most importantly, the yield on the 10-year note hit 2.02%. In the five months since, the dollar has rallied and then fallen to new lows. The USDJPY has rallied and fallen back, but the yield on the 10-year has risen to 2.88% with no end in sight! Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short-term is on sell signals; a pullback is in progress. The cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
With the dollar, T-bond, and the general stock market on very shaky and inflationary ground, institutional money managers have started to take a serious look at gold stocks. By the summer, I expect them to be consistent buyers every month. It doesn’t take a lot of institutional money to blast gold stocks to significantly higher price levels. Full Story
The information provided in the BIS monthly statement of account is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps, but it appears that the bank's total exposure as of January 31, 2018, was 580 tonnes of gold. This compares to estimates of 450 tonnes, 600 tonnes, and 570 tonnes, respectively, at the December, November, and October month-ends and an audited swaps figure of 438 tonnes as of March 31, 2017. Full Story
In recent years, markets had appeared eerily “safe”. Central banks promised to do “whatever it takes”, provided “forward guidance” to keep rates low, even printed money to buy government debt, calling it “quantitative easing.” Sure enough, volatility has been low, valuations have risen. Now, just as the fellow from the cartoon above, many might have thought something isn’t quite right. As a result, many investors have been looking to buy some insurance, protection, just in case this goldilocks environment doesn’t last forever. Full Story
While the Dow Jones Index and broader markets are recovering from their lows set on Friday, the worst is still yet to come. Investors need to realize that stock market indexes don’t fall in a straight line. Also, there is also the possibility that the Dow Jones Index could surpass its previous high of 26,600 points. Only time will tell. Full Story
Today I’d like to share a few words about the Olympics, but first, two words: Don’t panic. The stock selloffs last Monday and Thursday were the two biggest daily point drops in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but in terms of percentage point losses, they don’t even come close to cracking the top 10 worst days in the past 10 years alone. Full Story
By: Sound Money Defense League - 13 February, 2018
The Idaho State House today overwhelming approved a bill which helps restore constitutional, sound money in the Gem State. State representatives voted 60-9 to pass House Bill 449 sending the measure introduced by House Majority Leader Mike Moyle and Senate Assistant Majority Leader Steve Vick to the Senate for a hearing in the Local Government and Taxation Committee. Full Story
To conclude, this looks like an excellent point to short the dollar, which is expected to drop and probably accelerate away to the downside. This should provide a boost for the Precious Metals sector which should not be troubled by a falling stockmarket over the short to medium-term, and even when the stockmarket does fall again, it should have less or no impact on the Precious Metals sector, which will increasingly be seen as a safe haven. Full Story
U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week. If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began. Full Story
Markets around the world are convulsing which is definitely different than anything we have seen in over a year. We also know that interest rates are going higher all over the world. In fact, if you look at rates going back to 1981, the downtrend line(s) has been broken and thus a very major change. Generational trades and 37 year trend lines are rare on their own, when they finally break it means something very big has changed and you must do your very best at trying to figure out “what” it is. Full Story
Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle. The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years. Full Story
CNBC guest commentators are now displaying manic-depressive-type patterns of speech as they waffle back-and-forth stammering and stuttering about how they predicted this bloodbath and how and why investors "have to take a longer-term perspective." In light of these rapidly altered conditions, I am proud to display a NEW chart complete with the concerned faces of the POTUS and the poster-child for U.S. stocks, CNBC's "Mad Money" maestro, Jim Cramer. You will notice that the smiles in January 17 missive are now frowns as the ramifications of the $5 trillion wealth implosion are slowly being assessed. Full Story
The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.” Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year. Full Story
Silver may be on the rise as the ratio between gold and silver is nearing a five-year high. If the ratio does reach its five-year average, the trend could reverse and silver could outperform gold, reports Bloomberg. The silver price might also rise due to improving global economic growth and the expanding middle class in China fueling demand for jewelry and solar panels. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. But, after last week’s break down below the December 2017 low, the set up will have to be resurrected first in the coming months. Full Story
So here’s a scenario for the next few years: Central banks focus on the “real” economy of wages and raw material prices and (soaring) government deficits for a little while longer and either maintain current rates or raise them slightly. This reassures no one, bond yields continue to rise, stock markets grow increasingly volatile, and something – another week like the last one, for instance – happens to force central banks to choose a side. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market, and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. Full Story
Rising interest rates, by a variety of mechanisms, cause stocks and all asset prices to go down. We have touched on a few in this Report. One is that investors have a choice between the risk-free asset—the Treasury bond—and anything else (note: the Treasury bond is not risk free, but if it defaults then everything else will be wiped out in the collapse). Why would they accept a lower yield on stocks along with the greater risk? Full Story
Chinese New Year is probably the most important date in the Chinese calendar, with the event being celebrated throughout China and in Chinese communities around the world. Gold plays an essential part of the Chinese New Year celebrations. Also known as Lunar New Year, the date on which Chinese New Year falls each year is variable since it follows the Lunisolar calendar, hence the New Year festival is a movable event. However, Chinese New Year usually falls somewhere between 21 January and 21 February and the date is calculated based on the occurrence of a new moon. Full Story
Talk about the market busting a move … and a lot of people! In less than half a month, the Trump Rally lost a third of the height it had developed over a period of sixteen months — the worst two-week drop since February 2009. (The market’s moves are so extreme by many measures that the Great Recession is the closest touchstone one can find to assay the last two weeks of market action.) Full Story
Gold stocks and the stock market were positively correlated during the 1960s but gold stocks dramatically outperformed and especially from 1964 to 1968. That outperformance accelerated after 1963 as inflation and bond yields began to rise to higher and higher levels in the years ahead. That would soon negatively impact the stock market in both nominal and real terms. The Dow peaked in 1966 while the SPX 500 did not peak until 1973 (as it made marginal new highs in 1969 and 1973). In real terms stocks would peak in 1966 or 1968 (depending on which index you use). Full Story
Nick Barisheff of Bullion Management Group (BMG) and author of $10,000 Gold: Why Gold's Inevitable Rise Is the Investor's Safe Haven (2013) returns to the show. Our guest notes that portfolio diversification remains the hallmark of financial success, yet the typical stock / bond portfolio embraces inadequate asset weighting. Chris Blasi, President of Neptune Global LLC underscores gold's 4000 year track record as sound money, noting further that the year 2000 gold bull market is still underway. Full Story
The gold price didn't do much of anything anywhere on Planet Earth on Friday, but I suppose the reality of the situation was that it wasn't allowed that luxury. The gold price traded in a ten dollar price range yesterday -- and the high and low ticks aren't worth looking up. Gold was closed in New York on Friday at $1,315.70 spot, down $2.60 on the day. Net volume was pretty heavy at just under 293,000 contracts. Full Story
Last week’s turbulence shined a harsh spotlight on the stock market. Appropriately so, if that’s where your investments are. But in the hubbub many investors are missing the deeper and far more urgent bond market issues. Full Story
Gold has been under cross examination over the past week as to why it hasn’t gone up while stocks have gone down. Just as complacency and low volatility were the “lull before the storm” in the stock and bond markets, the hesitation to buy gold might be a reaction among investors akin to the deer being caught in the headlights. The true reaction – bolting for the woods – might be yet to come, as the chart above indicates. Full Story
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t). Full Story
As the Dow Jones Index continues to drop like a rock, the worst is yet to come. Today, investors once again plowed into the markets because they are following the Mainstream Financial advice of BUYING THE DIP. Unfortunately, those who bought the dip before yesterday’s 1,032 point drop and the 400+ point drop this afternoon, have thrown good money after bad. Full Story
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