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Weekly Archive

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 16 December, 2011

Having fought a stalwart battle above $1,700 and having seen over $1,900 this year, gold has not done as so many analysts have believed it would and risen through $2,000. Instead, here we’re headed down towards $1,500 to who knows where? The stress in the financial markets has not stimulated safe-haven gold buying but has instead weakened the euro and indirectly helped drag gold lower. Prices have fallen to a point where investors with longstanding positions are liquidating some of their holdings to secure profits and momentum-driven traders are selling heavily. At the same time stresses continue to be seen in the European interbank lending market as USD funding has become even more expensive as the year closes. Full Story

By: Marin Katusa, Casey Research - 16 December, 2011

The Keystone XL ruckus shone a light on pipelines like never before. From the heated nature of the debate one could be forgiven for thinking that long, high-volume pipelines are something new to America. Really, that couldn't be further from the truth: The United States built its first pipeline in the 1840s, and there are now more than a million kilometers of oil and gas pipelines crisscrossing the country. Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 16 December, 2011

The long-in-the-tooth commodities correction plunged to new lows this week. Traders were disappointed the Fed didn’t announce a new quantitative-easing campaign, so they dumped the popular commodities with a vengeance. But realize the primary driver of the recent commodities weakness is not the Fed, but a strengthening US dollar. The coming commodities price action heavily depends on its fortunes. Full Story

By: The Gold Report, Michael Gray, and Shawn Campbell - 16 December, 2011

Junior explorers may be underperforming the gold price this year, but Macquarie Capital Markets Equity Analyst Michael Gray is finding opportunities for mergers and acquisitions within the precious metals space. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gray and Research Associate Shawn Campbell talk about the technical aspects that are making a number of juniors attractive targets. Full Story

By: Puru Saxena - 16 December, 2011

The verdict is in and investors should prepare for a chilly winter. You will recall that in last month’s Money Matters, we explained that many key markets were at ‘make or break’ points. Since then, the market has spoken and it appears as though the ‘risk trade’ is in a primary downtrend. If our assessment is correct, investors who are ‘long’ risky assets will feel the cold breeze over the winter months. Full Story

By: Toby Connor, GoldScents - 16 December, 2011

I know that during a correction of the magnitude we are seeing right now it seems more like the gold bull is dead than on the verge of moving into what I expect will be one of the greatest parabolic moves in history. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 16 December, 2011

In sum, the Fundamental Reality going forward is that we expect to have Inflation in some Key Sectors and Deflation in others, so it is essential to consider the Inflation versus Deflation issue on a Sector by Sector basis. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 December, 2011

Thanks to the latest commentaries by Brady Willett of Fall Street, Tom Szabo of Metal Augmentor, and Jim Willie of the Golden Jackass, more people are realizing the potential for market manipulation through central bank gold leasing, of which there lately have been strong indications. Full Story

By: Michael Kilbach - 16 December, 2011

For market insights many investors focus on the “historical/backward” looking news but fail to realize other exceptionally powerful forces that are also at work; such as “Seasonal Trends”. We believe there is some validity to paying attention to the News events that can impact ones investments; however seasonal factors may provide a simpler and more reliable market insight. Full Story

By: Richard (Rick) Mills - 16 December, 2011

The two most common methods used by companies to return "excess" cash to their shareholders are dividends and stock buybacks – stock buybacks are currently favored. S&P Indices data shows 305 S&P 500 companies purchased their shares in the first quarter of 2011 – at a cost of $89.8 billion. This compared to 270 company’s conducting buyback programs during the fourth quarter of 2010, 261 in the third quarter, 257 in the second quarter and 251 in the first quarter of 2010. Full Story

By: Louis James, Casey Research - 15 December, 2011

We have reported on changes in global gold demand, from booming investment demand in Asia to European and US debt concerns that have re-solidified gold's long tenure as the ultimate safe-haven asset for turbulent times. In fact, with investment demand from private and institutional buyers continuing to grow and central banks increasing their gold reserves, total demand reached a record US$57.7 billion in the third quarter of 2011. Quite astounding. Full Story

By: Jim Willie CB - 15 December, 2011

Central banks are the current sovereign debt market. It is a vacated market. They are the majority bidders via debt monetization. The monetary inflation has become the New Normal and a travesty. In perverse fashion, the financial markets celebrate the monetized purchases, even calling for higher volume. In the process, bond and stock market integrity has been destroyed. Full Story

By: Tom Szabo, Metal Augmentor - 15 December, 2011

Much has been made recently about the “negative gold lease rates” derived from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) statistical gold and silver data, but reporting on the issue so far has generally lacked the background, substance and/or context required for many readers to even understand what information is being provided much less draw proper conclusions. Here are some of the key points raised in our extensive analysis of the subject at Metal Augmentor... Full Story

By: Brady Willett - 15 December, 2011

The price of gold was off by nearly 5% yesterday, with comex gold losing over $97 an ounce on an intraday basis. This price collapse is comparable, in percentage terms, to the carnage seen in other precious metals, but well beyond the damage seen in other ‘risk’ areas of the marketplace (i.e. commodities and equities). Accordingly, the question deserves to be asked: why is gold outpacing the recent decline in other ‘risk’ areas of the marketplace? Full Story

By: Neeraj Chaudary, Investment Consultant with Euro Pacific Capital - 15 December, 2011

A central theme that has absolutely permeated the coverage of the Great Recession is that over the past few years US corporations have cautiously hoarded cash and have stubbornly refused to invest in corporate expansion. Some have described this as a nearly irrational timidity on the part of the private sector and has for many justified the currently robust intervention from the public sector in the form of deficit spending, fiscal stimulus and monetary accommodation. Full Story

By: Justin Smyth - 15 December, 2011

One of the beauties of trend following is ignoring the constant swirl of noise that surrounds the market. Charts don’t lie, and they don’t have opinions. By pouring through a wide variety of charts, from the major market indexes, to commodities, bonds, and foreign markets, you can develop an overall feel for what is going on in the markets. This objective method of looking at the market can dramatically improve your confidence and understanding. Full Story

By: Lorimer Wilson - 15 December, 2011

With what is happening with the price of gold these past few days it is imperative to take a look at the long and short of it all (the trends, that is). In doing so it shows that we are still very much in a long-term bull market but in a short-term (yes, short-term) bear market. Let's take a look at some charts that clearly outline where we are at and where we could well be going. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 December, 2011

The Dollar Index has blasted through key resistance at 80, threatening to “unwind” carry-traders who borrowed dollars for next to nothing in order to speculate on other assets. Chief among those assets is gold, which got savaged yesterday in a $100 selloff that seems hell-bent on testing September’s key low. The low lies at 1543, basis the Comex February contract, but we doubt that it will hold. Full Story

By: Kevin Brekke, Casey Research - 14 December, 2011

A new polysyllabic term has entered the Wall Street lexicon and is sweeping through the investing world like a brush fire through a dry canyon: "hypothecation." With its connection to the MF Global bankruptcy and aftermath, it engenders the kind of fear a homeowner might feel while monitoring the approaching flames. Full Story

By: James West and Eric Sprott - 14 December, 2011

Live from the Thomson Reuters studio at Times Square in New York City, Midas Letter Money's James West interviews Eric Sprott. They discuss the silver futures market, and how the paper market is used to suppress the price in the physical silver market. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and David Morgan - 14 December, 2011

David Morgan, publisher of Silver Investor, likes the balanced risk and growth that midtier companies provide, but even he can't resist the pull of having a speculative pick pay off. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Morgan talks about the tenets he lives by when investing in mining companies, be they small-cap or midtier or billion dollar companies. Full Story

By: Clif Droke - 14 December, 2011

Recent investor disappointment is being blamed on the Federal Reserve and the fact that it didn’t announce another round of stimulus at its latest meeting. Recent market action can also be chalked up to a continuation of the lingering disappointment from last week’s EU summit meeting. Participants are upset that the European Central Bank (ECB) refuses to engage in a major bond buying program to provide liquidity and bolster investor confidence. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 14 December, 2011

In further correspondence with our British friend James Bern, a Bank of England official this week indicated that the bank, as custodian of the United Kingdom's gold reserve, has not engaged in gold lending or swapping from 2007 through the middle of this year. Full Story

By: Przemyslaw Radomski - 14 December, 2011

Whatever glow there might have been from last week’s European summit turned to gloom as markets turned downwards Monday. Global investors drove down everything in sight, including gold which dropped nearly 3% to a seven-week low to trade under $1,660 an ounce. Gold got lumped with other assets considered risky (we live in interesting times, as gold was known to be the “safe asset” for millennia and now it’s a “risky asset”). European indexes were down: Germany 3.4%, France 2.6% and Italy 3.8 %. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 14 December, 2011

After watching Europe’s performance last week the only thing they really were after was an ESM, European Stabilization Mechanism, to tie down all EU nations to a tighter regional set up. As it turns out England and others did not agree. Britain obviously does not want to become part of a new treaty that deprives them of their sovereignty. This regional government concept appeared in the early 1960s and is now going to be pushed in Europe with the US to follow. Our question, is England just trying to protect the advantages of the “City of London,” or is the disagreement deeper than that? Full Story

By: Gary North - 14 December, 2011

Adapt or die: this is a free market principle. It was expounded as a fundamental principle of society by Adam Smith and the eighteenth-century Scottish Enlightenment. This idea was picked up by Erasmus Darwin and extended by his grandson, Charles, who applied it – adapted it – to biology. The Scottish Enlightenment announced "adapt or die" as the basis of social progress. "Adapt or die" is a principle of liberty, they argued. It is applied most productively and beneficially on a free market, they concluded. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 14 December, 2011

We got short at the top on Friday, but how long will Mr. Market let us enjoy the ride? Our vehicle, QQQ put options, nearly ran off the road on Tuesday when the Dow began the day with a 125-point rally. A pullback in the early going shaved that gain by two-thirds, but by early afternoon bulls were beating on the highs, threatening to send bears into a new round of short-covering. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and Louis James - 13 December, 2011

Christmas sales are not just for retail shoppers. Tax selling season is here, and one man's stock loss may be another man's super bargain opportunity. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Casey Research Master of Metals Louis James talks about year-end investment strategies in the current market environment and factors to consider next year as the global economic situation may affect precious metals and mining stocks. Full Story

By: Jeff Clark, Casey Research - 13 December, 2011

We've been saying since September that gold producers are undervalued, and here are some data that show just how extreme the undervaluation is. The following chart measures the stock prices of major and intermediate gold producers against their Net Asset Value, based on the daily price of gold. In the simplest terms, a company should be worth more as the product it sells rises in price faster than the cost of those sales. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 13 December, 2011

When you see commodity market heavyweights all talking about the same theme in a major market, you know that huge money is on the line, and it’s time to take a closer look at that theme. The key when looking at such a theme, is to do so from “outside the box”. Understand what the herd is focused on, but don’t get dragged into acting as they do. Before I get into an analysis of the symmetrical triangle that boatloads of commodity money is betting on, I want you to take a look at the Dow. Retail sales numbers coming out today are rumoured to be strong, but the rally in the Dow is a little long in the tooth. Full Story

By: Ron Hera - 13 December, 2011

The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an informative interview with Keith Neumeyer, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR / NYSE:AG). Mr. Neumeyer began his career at the Vancouver Stock Exchange and worked in the investment community for 26 years beginning his career in a series of Canadian national brokerage firms including McLeod Young Weir (now Scotia McLeod), then Richardson Greenshields and then Walwyn Stogell McCuthchen (which became Midland Walwyn). Full Story

By: Nu Yu, Ph.D. with Lorimer Wilson - 13 December, 2011

Gold is in the bump phase of a seven-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture which could change the long-term trend of gold. Silver is already in the run phase which does not bode well for its future price. Let me explain. Full Story

By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 13 December, 2011

Gold stocks, as a group, did poorly in 2011. They did very well during 2009 and 2010, although the strong 2009-2010 performance was partly a reaction to the dismal 2008 performance. If we step back we see that despite experiencing some huge swings, they have essentially gone nowhere since March of 2008. In other words, long-term holders of gold stocks have now spent almost 4 years treading water in rough seas. Full Story

By: Jeb Handwerger - 13 December, 2011

Taking a leaf from Roger’s modus operandi we come across two significant developments involving nuclear energy. Russia and The United States have reached an agreement of safe, compact, economically viable development of the nuclear (NLR) industry globally. Thus two former adversaries are joining in the peaceful growth and development of nuclear power. This serves to vindicate the watchful, waiting policy of Gold Stock Trades in refusing to be panicked by the scare stories of the media. Our ongoing faith in nuclear energy’s future continues to be upheld by history. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 13 December, 2011

Beta is a financial term that describes an asset’s volatility relative to the S&P500 index. In scoring individual assets against the equity markets, financiers hope to find a collection of securities that provide the best possible appreciation with the least amount of beta. That is, financiers are compensated to make many different investments to form the perfect portfolio that, over time, goes up in the straightest line possible. Full Story

By: Scott Silva - 12 December, 2011

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has caused leaders there to adopt a new collective policy that would link members under a strict fiscal structure which may be called the European Fiscal Union. Like the European Monetary Union, which established the Euro as the common currency, the EFU would establish common liability for member state fiscal conditions. Full Story

By: Andy Sutton and Greg Olson - 12 December, 2011

One of the traps all analysts fall into from time to time is their inability to see the forest through the trees. We are all guilty of this from time to time, and those who would deny this simple reality only set themselves up to miss important changes in the paradigms in which they operate. Perhaps the most famous example of this happened in the life and times of Christopher Columbus. We’re sure you recall the mental model of that time; that the Earth was flat. Many very wise people in Columbus’ day felt he was going to sail the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria right off the edge of the Earth. And there are many other classic examples as well. Full Story

By: John Brennan - 12 December, 2011

Years ago, at its inception, the Internal Revenue Service, was duly deputized as the primary government agency responsible for collecting all personal and business taxes. The IRS, as it is referred to by most, has, over the years, grown into a mammoth operation. Steadily and methodically expanding, and with the use of new technology, has become very, very proficient at keeping track of what working Americans earn, and conversely, how much earnings should be returned to feed the king’s coffers. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 December, 2011

Who’d have believed that the word “hypothecation” would grab the financial world’s shakers and movers by the balls last week, whirl them round-and-round, then dash their cynical pretenses of “saving” Europe against a stone wall? Click here to read the article on this topic at ZeroHedge if you haven’t done so already. And then send it to everyone you know. We did, with a warning that the collapse of the banking system is no longer merely possible or likely, but unavoidable. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 11 December, 2011

Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report.
Spotlight Stock Picks.
Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions.
GUESTS:
Jim Rogers, A Bull In China
Peter Eliades, Stockmarket Cycles Full Story

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 11 December, 2011

The big feature of last week’s decline in the gold price has been the lending of gold into the market. Commercial banks could have been doing it, but there is evidence in the past that central banks have leased gold to cap the gold price and bring it down. The gold price declines were so rapid and extensive that some investors theorized that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, were actively selling gold. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 11 December, 2011

What do you get when you mix negative real interest rates with stimulative money supply efforts by global central banks? An exceptionally potent formula for higher gold prices that could send gold to the unimaginable level of $10,000 an ounce. Negative real interest rates and strong money supply growth are two key factors of what I refer to as the Fear Trade. Full Story

By: David Knox Barker - 11 December, 2011

The international political economy and global financial markets are deep in the woods. A long wave winter season is blowing cold, and getting colder. Decades of excess leverage in the banking system and sovereign states is coming to an end. Government and consumer spending are hitting a wall. A critical fork on this wintry road is coming up fast. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 11 December, 2011

As we reach back into modern European history we see the unnatural amalgamation of 27-European countries, all of which are socially and culturally different. From our point of view the union was doomed from its inception. We lived for years in central Europe, spoke their languages and had a powerful outsider’s view of their cultures. Europe’s inhabitants generally were convinced that the union would prevent future wars and bring peace to Europe. Unfortunately, all they did was trade Perfidious Albion, Hitler and Mussolini for the Trilateral Commission, Bilderbergs and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 11 December, 2011

Market News International, which, on the basis of confidential sources, reported Thursday that the Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve had sold gold that day to reverse an upward spike in the price as the euro zone financial crisis worsened, has retracted the report. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 11 December, 2011

We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. Was it something we will look back on in ten years and say, "This was where it all started," or will it be viewed as just another meeting in what will prove to be a string of even more meetings? I will argue that both views are the correct answer, depending on your frame of reference. Full Story

By: Michael S. Rozeff - 11 December, 2011

If we had monetary freedom, Ruijter and other greenbackers could form a collective and create their own government organization for themselves. It would not be forced on others. They could devise their own state-owned and state-operated central bank that issues state money in the form of paper currency or credits. Their collective could operate as it pleased. Others of us could supply and demand moneys of our choice in freedom. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and Brock Salier - 11 December, 2011

Brock Salier, a mining analyst with GMP Securities Europe, sees plenty of gold coming out of Africa in the coming months and years. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he says increasing political stability, good geological prospects and governmental recognition of the benefits of mining operations are reasons to look there for growth. Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 11 December, 2011

It was actuality a pretty quiet week all in all with no decisions on Europe, just meetings. Of course most all of Europe was put on watch by a prominent U.S. Ratings agency but in my eyes they are so far behind the curve that they nor their ratings matter and the markets largely reflected that view. Full Story




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