The precious metals sector, after failing to breakdown has enjoyed a strong rally in recent weeks. Gold, Silver and junior gold miners (GDXJ) have reached their 200-day moving averages with senior miners (GDX) close behind. While this is a positive development it does not yet signal that the sector is embarking on a new bull market trend. There are a few things to keep an eye on over the days and weeks to come that can help us determine if a new bull market is taking shape. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 16 October, 2015
Despite gold blasting higher this month, this metal remains deeply out of favor among investors. They have shunned it for years thanks to extreme central-bank money printing levitating stock markets. This slayed demand for alternative investments, led by gold. But the resulting radical underinvestment in gold today is super-bullish. Vast capital inflows will be necessary to return gold investment to normal levels. Full Story
Money’s use as a medium of exchange is a secondary function. Just about anything can pass muster as a medium of exchange – even paper debt notes in the short term. Only Gold can perform the senior function of money, which is to store a stable value over indefinite time. Note that there is a world of difference between storing a stable value over indefinite time and being ‘a good store of value’. Salt and copper are good stores of value, but those values are hardly stable. Full Story
Silver looks like it has bottomed and will move substantially higher. Why? Long Term – 25+ years: Examine the silver to gold ratio since 1990. The ratio is currently low and appears to have bottomed. Silver bottoms when the ratio bottoms. Expect a multi-year rally. Full Story
One has had to search quite hard to find a point of neutrality in the metals market over the years. If one had performed a search in the past, they either encountered gold bugs, which are super bulls, or gold haters, who believe that gold will never be a good investment. Full Story
Commodity traders know that gold is highly cyclical, and that it takes significant changes in the fundamentals and sentiment to change the long-term price trend. That said, the latest news on gold is cautiously optimistic for those waiting for a rebound in the precious metal. Over the last few days, gold has broken through its 200-day moving average to reach its highest price in three months at just short of $1,200 per oz. Full Story
The title does not include a (?) after it and that is for a reason. The gold sector’s fundamentals, both sector-specific and macro, are improving and this was not the case during the last exciting upturn in the sector circa summer 2014. Back then, everything from Russia’s move into Ukraine to the Ebola scare were imagined to be sound drivers of the gold price. This stuff proved, as expected, to be wrong when the whole complex made new lows in November of 2014 (prior to this year’s ultimate lows). Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 October, 2015
Perth Mint research director Bron Suchecki today calls attention to an erudite but exceedingly long analysis of modern markets by Christopher R. Cole of Artemis Capital Management in Austin, Texas, whose central point seems to be that for years now central banks have undertaken pre-emptive market manipulation, purchasing a substantial portion of their own nations' bond and equity markets and effectively placing a put under those markets. Full Story
My biggest point of interest at this time is how Mario Draghi and the ECB are going to react to this recent weakening of the Dollar. Will they employ a round of verbal intervention to try talking the Euro back down or have they reached some sort of settlement with the Fed to leave the Euro in the general vicinity of where it is currently trading just as long as it does not strengthen significantly from current levels. Remember, the Euro is some 9% higher than it was at its depths this year when the ECB first announced their intent to employ their own version of Quantitative Easing. Full Story
As I write this, I am watching the Mets play the Dodgers and not watching the Democratic debate. I can catch the highlights on Twitter. I am half expecting someone to propose a tax rate of over 100%. Something I’m sure will be suggested at some point is a financial transactions tax, a tiny tax placed on every single financial transaction: stocks, bonds, and derivatives. Full Story
By the time Goldman Sachs published its widely referenced warning of a third wave in the global financial crisis (mid October), the physical precious metals' markets were already feeling the strain of very strong demand against a rapidly dwindling supply. China, the country seemingly at the epicenter of the developing emerging market crisis, by itself had taken 911 tonnes of gold off the market in the first half of 2015 – a number when annualized that represents nearly two-thirds of the world's mine production. Full Story
In today’s edition, Doug explains why it’s essential to own a gun…and tells us about the guns he personally owns. L: What would you say to our European readers or readers from other places with less tradition of firearms ownership than there is in the U.S.? Many of them think that governments keep people safe, and that individuals should not have firearms – or any weapons at all – only the police should have them. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 15 October, 2015
The main problem facing the US which is directly and suddenly impacting gold is the flatness of the US economy. Our economy is stable, which is great but it’s not firing on all cylinders. Inflation is not apparent in goods, services or wage growth. While some companies are trying to increase prices, like insurance companies, there are plenty of choices to move to leaving even them without a lot of pricing power. Full Story
The surprises are going to the upside for gold, and that is obviously a change in behavior. The miners are roaring higher and are outside of their Bollinger Bands for multiple days, a sure sign of strength. Up until very recently, the Investor Cycle had showed us relatively little to get excited about. But suddenly, eleven weeks into the Cycle and right where you would have expected it to turn lower, gold has found yet another gear. Full Story
The gold market is turning around right before our eyes and still hardly anybody seems to be paying much attention, while stocks markets wither on the vine and the US economic outlook weakens by the day. Gold prices were up more than two per cent on Wednesday and it will only take a couple more days of this type of performance to eliminate all the losses of 2015. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 15 October, 2015
Breakout or breakdown, your secretary/treasurer is not an investment adviser. The only advice he can offer is the advice he has been offering for years: Get all the gold and silver you can, find a safe planet to keep it on, and when you find it, please call me. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 15 October, 2015
As the death of the world’s reserve currency grows closer, the U.S. continues to export one hell of a lot of gold. Matter-a-fact, the U.S. exported so much gold over the past three years, it suffered a deficit large enough to equal two years worth of its domestic mine supply. Full Story
One of Casey Research's biggest calls this year is paying off… In early August, E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, told subscribers how to profit from the world’s oversupply of oil. If you read financial newspapers for more than a week, you’ll notice that global oil production is near record highs. Last year, global oil output reached its highest level in at least twenty-five years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Full Story
The press is giving too much credence to the effect an interest rate hike would have on the markets and on the financial sector. First of all, the fact that the Fed has been debating whether or not to raise rates by a paltry meaningless 0.25 basis points speaks volumes. The Fed clearly understands that this recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors; the main driving force behind being hot money. Full Story
It has been a while since I have written anything close to being considered a "rant". Instead, using cool and common sense logic of connecting dots for readers has been my method of choice. Over just the last several weeks, the "obviousness" of what is coming has been astounding. I can only wonder why the "inevitable" has not yet been seen by the masses? Though Mark Dice giving the choice of a candy bar or a 10 ounce silver bar ...only to run out of candy may be the answer? Full Story
China has just announced its largest devaluation in two months of 177 pips which put a rocket under the gold price this morning. It breached the important technical barrier of $1,170, setting the precious metal on a path for $1,200 an ounce and more. Central banks are always pathological liars when it comes to exchange rates. They have to be. Imagine what would happen if they said, ‘Hey yes we are going to devalue big-time!’ Full Story
“Gold is a safe haven.” “Gold is a hedge against market volatility.” We have all heard these sound bites countless times. Analysts seem to dust them off every time the market declines and the metals rally concurrently. In fact, many of them were making these claims during the recent market volatility. Full Story
If you ever get the chance to go camping near an old gold or silver mine, take it. I did years ago. Not only is it a great experience, but it made me a better metals investor too. Why? Well, there’s nothing like seeing long-dead, abandoned mineworks with your own eyes. You realize, in a visceral way, that someone made a best-guess calculation on supply and demand decades ago — and guessed wrong. Full Story
It’s no secret that commodity prices have dropped, but the impact on corporate profits is worse than Wall Street expects. Alcoa reported earnings well below Wall Street’s already-lowered expectations of 7 cents per share on $5.57 billion in revenue; much lower than the 13 cents per share on a $5.65 billion forecast. Alcoa shares got hit hard on that big miss, and while nobody likes losing money, it is a painful reminder that nothing goes up forever. Full Story
Retail investors in recent months have seized the opportunity to significantly increase their holdings of silver bullion coins and, to a lesser extent, bars. Due to strong demand, the U.S. Mint, the Royal Canadian Mint, Australia’s Perth Mint, the Austrian Mint and the British Royal Mint have put their silver bullion coins on allocation, where the volume of distribution of coins is controlled due to bottlenecks in the manufacturing process. This is an unprecedented industry-wide phenomenon. In recent history, putting bullion coins on allocation has only occasionally been done by the U.S. Mint. The practice points to considerable tightness in the silver coin business at the moment. Full Story
Because of war, increasing debt to pay for those wars, and the inevitable destruction of purchasing power of fiat currencies. Because insolvent, hopelessly indebted countries owe far more than can ever be repaid in CURRENT dollars, euros, pounds and yen – and therefore central banks will “print” and devalue. Because, regardless of the story promoted by politicians and bankers, it is unlikely that interest rates can be maintained at multi-generational lows for several more decades. Full Story
Is the US dollar still the most important safe haven for fiat enthusiasts? For the possible answer, please click here now. That’s the US dollar versus Japanese yen daily chart. The dollar collapsed in August, as global stock markets suffered a meltdown! Simply put, the yen acted as a safe haven during the stock market crash, and the dollar acted as a “risk on” asset. The dollar is now trading in a fairly large symmetrical triangle pattern, after breaking a key uptrend line. Full Story
Gold remains our best means of economic measurement. It is not a perfect, but it is our best. Due to its monetary properties, gold can be used to measure wealth across generations. Just like we have the sun and moon to discern the times and seasons, I believe, we have gold to discern changes in wealth. It is interesting that the sun is often compared to gold, and the moon to silver. Just like a day in the Middle Ages is comparable to a day in this century, an ounce of gold in the Middle Ages is comparable to one today. Full Story
While some continue dancing, the music might have already stopped: are we already in a bear market in stocks? In this context, we study past bear markets to see whether gold may serve as a valuable diversifier for what's ahead. A "bear market" is frequently defined as a decline of at least 20% in the SPX 500 index. Trouble is that by the time pundits provide their seal of approval that we are indeed in a bear market, the index has already lost 20% from its peak. Many of them will likely have told investors to buy the dips all the way down. Full Story
Gold rallied overnight and extended those gains in the NY pre-open. However, check the high for the day...$1168.60. And what was the intraday high back on "Blue Monday", August 24? $1169.80. So in order to make our first "higher high" in a while, gold needs to plow through that $1170 area. Is there any surprise, then, that it stopped just below and has now reversed back down to $1162? Full Story
While the recent collapse of China’s stock market is similar to the collapse of the US stock market in 1929, China’s economic problems are reminiscent of events far older than the 1920s. One thousand years ago, China began experimenting with paper money, an experiment that set in motion six centuries of economic and political chaos. Full Story
More and more “experts” are calling for Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP. The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 13 October, 2015
I opened a blog post on 7th October with the statement that gold was money in the distant past and might again be money in the future, but isn’t money in any developed economy today. I then explained this statement. The post stirred up a veritable hornet’s nest, in that over the ensuing 24 hours my inbox was inundated with dozens of messages arguing that I was wrong and a couple of messages thanking me for pointing out the obvious (that gold is not money today). Full Story
Historic. Landmark. Groundbreaking. Revolutionary. These are among many of the words that have been used lately to describe the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact, which was finally signed in Atlanta last Monday by 12 participating Pacific Rim nations. The current members include Canada, the United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 October, 2015
This flying porker begs to be shorted, but we’ll need to be careful about how we do it, since it has the teeth and disposition of a great white shark. This is true for technical reasons as well, since the current, short-squeeze rally is coming off a low that did not quite reach the secondary pivot at 65.21 (see inset). That’s incipiently bullish, a prospect that has been rendered even clearer by the rally’s having since exceeded two peaks on the daily chart. Full Story
Precious metals prices enter the new week looking to extend the rally that began Oct. 2nd. Silver has gained nearly 10%, and gold is up almost 3.5%. The notion that the Federal Reserve governors may have missed their window to raise interest rates is beginning to sink in with investors. Full Story
I posted an article on the gold-silver ratio (GSR) back in February 2009 which you can find here. My closing words were that “it looks like a top was set back in late January”. By that I meant a top in the GSR, not the price of silver which clearly had suffered a large drop during the mass sell-offs of the Credit Crunch. When the GSR peaks, the price of silver tends to bottom and that clearly came to pass as silver began a run up to $50 two years later. Full Story
So, you see, this isn't complicated. The benevolent and altruistic Bullion Banks, which only seek to promote an orderly and fair paper market, always sell longs and add shorts while price rallies and then turn around and add longs and cover shorts while price falls. This is how it has always worked and this is how it will continue to work until the day finally comes when the music stops. Full Story
My conclusion is, although SGE withdrawals are (seemingly) less correlated to Chinese gold import in 2015, caused by more recycled gold supply flowing through the SGE, estimated Chinese gold import in the first six months of 2015 was higher relative to the same periods in the years before. Annualized Chinese gold import 2015 is 1,345 tonnes. Demand figures from the World Gold Council on China’s gold hunger are still dwarfed by the amounts of physical gold that are very clearly supplied to China mainland. Full Story
In an age of Algorithms, High Frequency Trading, Quant-injected performance engines and every Casino Patron with an e-Trade account hyper-stimulating the market after each bit of news that is fed (no pun intended) to us by the financial media and Policy Central, the lowly individual can be forgiven for feeling small and vulnerable; for feeling as if the answers are beyond her, or that long-term success is out of his reach. Full Story
Platinum was the best performing precious metal, bouncing back 7.95 percent, as palladium took a backseat this week. Traders had speculated that the Volkswagen’s emissions scandal might lead to increased demand for palladium should auto buyers shun diesel powered vehicles in favor of autos powered by gasoline engines that use more palladium in their catalytic converters. Full Story
I must apologize for leaving so many e-mails and comments unanswered last week. My wife Kathryn and I travelled to northern Michigan and the upper peninsula for the week and saw some wonderful fall foliage. Cell phone and wifi coverage was somewhat spotty. While there we celebrated her birthday and our 10 year wedding anniversary. The week away did allow me to step back from the global economic and financial fray to a vantage point of the very big picture and headlines rather than minutia. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 October, 2015
In the first place, while the gold business has its share of dishonorable people, the gold business is small and its dishonorable people are outnumbered a thousand to one by dishonorable people in government, central banking, and the stock, bond, and real estate businesses. And whatever a few "gold bugs" are hiding from the markets, it is trivial compared to what investment banks and central banks are hiding, about which Arends has yet to show any curiosity. Full Story
Decisions, decisions. Many Americans will have to make a big one in the next 60 days or so. How you decide will affect both your health and your wallet. Hospital management and doctors are seeing significant differences in the trends of patient care and are moving to adapt. Some of the changes they implement are going to create significant economic impacts on households and local communities. Full Story
In summary, as an ordinary investor, when you buy ETF Gold, you do not own a title to the Gold itself, but rather, you are placing your funds in the hands of the banks that serve as “authorised participants” of the ETF. Essentially, you own nothing more than a stock symbol in your portfolio and this does not protect you from the systematic risks inherent in the financial system. Full Story
Crude has been in a range for most of the month of September oscillating near the 50 day moving average. It had been unable to do much in the way of additional upside however until this month, when it finally broke out above resistance at the top of the range near the $48 level. Friday it managed to best 50 on an intraday basis but then faded well off the highs heading into the close. Full Story
The gold price moved up $18. However, the silver price moved up 60 cents which is a much bigger percentage. The silver community is getting pretty excited. A market trend will often begin when a small number of traders learn something new. As they begin buying (or selling), the price begins to move. Others become aware of the truth, and they begin buying. There’s just one problem with these moves. Full Story
The gold price rallied unsteadily right from the 6 p.m. EDT open in New York on Thursday evening—and it topped out around 12:30 p.m. in New York. From there it sold down a few dollars into the close. The low and high ticks were reported by the CME Group as $1,138.00 and $1,159.30 in the December contract. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, - he's double short the market bounce, in anticipation of continued volatility. Arch likes the PMs, noting that tight supply conditions could help bring about a renaissance in the sector He is accumulating silver in his personal stockpile. Chris welcomes Ross Givens, from Wealth Empire to the show. The duo concur that the Blog-o-Fear may be wrong on US equities; stocks are oversold and could present a long-term portfolio opportunity. Stocks represent an excellent valuation over fixed-rate debt instruments, such as bonds. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 11 October, 2015
Mining is an extremely capital intensive business for two reasons. Firstly mining has a large, up front layout of construction capital called Capex - the costs associated with the development and construction of open-pit and underground mines. There are often other company built infrastructure assets like roads, railways, bridges, power generating stations and seaports to facilitate extraction and shipping of ore and concentrate. Full Story
We're not seeing it necessarily on the wholesale side yet, but we are seeing signs of it. Look at the physical turnover happening in silver and nowhere else. This is a frantic physical turnover in the COMEX warehouses. Silver coming in and out every day in tremendous amounts is a sign that the wholesale market is tight and ultimately, shortage is just a certain level of tightness. You get to the point where you can't contain it anymore. Buyers come in encouraged by increasing prices that a shortage will bring. It's just got to burn itself out. That's how it must end some day, just don't ask me which day. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 11 October, 2015
The growth of U.S. currency in circulation has been considerable over the past twenty years. According to the Federal Reserve Statistical Release, the total value of Federal Reserve Notes in circulation jumped from $423 billion in 1996 to $1.38 trillion as of October 8th, 2015. This was a staggering 228% increase even though the population of the United States only increased 21% during the same time period. Full Story
Markets are changing now and looking more and more like a low is in now just as seasonality comes into our favour, and that is a reason I am opening up my real-time trading group again. I don’t like to bs anyone and the summer was not a great trading environment at all so I didn’t do a lot and would not feel right about having subscribers pay for a service which isn’t really useful at the time, but that time is changing now and we are on the cusp of some nice moves as earnings are now kicking off. Full Story
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