By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 16 January, 2015
Silver looks to be on the verge of a major new upleg, finally emerging from the past couple years’ ugly sentiment wasteland. This beleaguered precious metal recently bottomed as futures speculators threw in the towel on their extreme shorting. And while investors’ ongoing silver stealth buying continues, it’s been modest. So there is vast room for capital inflows to accelerate dramatically as gold mean reverts higher. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 16 January, 2015
The number one rule of investing is ‘always buy an asset that is priced below its replacement value.’ The cheaper you can pick up quality assets, knowing the price HAS to rise, the better. Let’s see if gold is priced below replacement value. In 2012, the World Gold Council (WGC), and senior gold producers, come up with a new production cost reporting measure. The new industry standard is now ‘all-in sustaining costs’ or AISC. Full Story
WOW! Two huge news stories within 24 hours. First, Russia decided to shut off the gas pipeline to southern Europe, next the Swiss dropped their 1.20 floor peg to the euro. The first story is absolutely huge but has been completely overshadowed by the Swiss. In my opinion, the Russian move is part of the "war" chess game, the move by the Swiss is your beginning to multiple resets leading into a complete economic and financial reset! Full Story
Chalk this up as another article I hadn’t planned to write, but was inspired by the incredible events of the day. To wit, following the momentous events I discussed Wednesday, today’s historic Swiss National Bank announcement – and epic Euro plunge – has shifted the global economic meltdown into sixth gear. Sorry if it’s a bit rushed, but I’m on a schedule today, and just want to espouse my thoughts. Full Story
I have had a theory about markets for as long as I have watched gold. The theory is everything is about gold. Well, maybe not everything but close enough. Which is why the move by the SNB had me look at the charts. And those charts tell me a story that is very different from the official one. Now please understand I have zero proof outside of the charts, so this is speculation on my part but it is reasoned speculation as you will see. I believe the SNB was massively short gold and dropped the peg to cover their short. Here is why I believe it. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 January, 2015
Gold market rigging by central banks and their investment bank agents is the main topic of the year-end investor letter by John Hathaway, portfolion manager for Tocqueville Asset Management. Hathaway writes: "We believe that a breakdown of trust in financial intermediaries -- including bullion banks, 'synthetic' gold substitutes such as ETFs, and derivatives, as well as the integrity of central-bank custodial relationships -- is behind the growing clamor to repatriate physical gold bars owned by sovereign states... Full Story
Bear markets end with extreme bearish sentiment but positive price action is needed before a trend change can be confirmed. That can include (among other things) breaking downtrends, breaking resistance and breaking the pattern of lower lows and lower highs. There have been positive developments for precious metals beneath the surface but Thursday’s breakout in Gold is more significant. If Gold holds this breakout then it will be all but impossible to argue that it remains in a bear market. Full Story
Getting a Lot of Early Signals Suggesting it Maybe In the Cards! All the Commodity Economies are Now Hurting - Emerging Markets, South America, Australia, New Zealand and Canada Maybe#1 chart to watch for 2015... The spread between 10-year UST & 10-year German Bund yields: *Red circles Full Story
Switzerland has abandoned its 1.20 peg to the euro causing some of the biggest one-day movements in foreign exchange markets in living memory. The Swiss franc soared 16 per cent against the euro. Gold and silver also gained in a flight to safe havens, with gold up 2.4 per cent to $1,260 an ounce immediately after the announcement. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 January, 2015
Former Wall Street trader and market commentator Bruce Krasting, in analysis publicized by Zero Hedge, argues that the Swiss National Bank's repudiation today of its pledge to peg the Swiss franc to the euro forever will mark the beginning of the end of central bank power. Full Story
Yes loons dive. Canada’s iconic bird is featured on stamps and coins. The picture of a loon on Canada’s $1 coin earned it the nickname of “the loonie”. Those who have visited Canada’s lakes are familiar with the sound of loons. There is hardly a lake in Canada that wouldn’t be the same without the sound of the iconic loons. Oh yes they also dive. Loons dive to get their food. Ok they are not in the same class as cormorants but they can hold their breath for upwards of 90 seconds. Full Story
There are two separate subjects to talk about today, one is oil and the other copper. Oil has been cut by more than half in just six months. As I speculated last week, I believe someone, somewhere “is already dead”. For all intents and purposes, the shale businesses across the globe have been rendered upside down. Along with the business models of course is all of the debt taken on to create the businesses. The debt is estimated in North America alone to be greater than $500 billion and has provided much of what little growth GDP has recorded the past few years. Full Story
The terrorist attacks in Paris have fixated the world’s attention on the contrast between competing worldviews and what constitutes acceptable behavior in modern society. What are the principles by which society should be organized and run? Who gets to set those rules, and to what standards should others who do not believe in them be held? Full Story
One of the things I always try to remember is that government employees (and this includes the folks at the Federal Reserve) are people just like you and me, most of whom work very hard to do what they believe is right. The Fed is often maligned, sometimes unfairly. No matter what it does, it’s going to be criticized, often loudly, by someone. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective. Full Story
China has a 4-way global gold supply domination strategy. And it’s starting to corner the market. First, China buys physical gold in world markets, fabricates it where necessary into “good delivery” bars – in Switzerland or the Middle East – then ships the bullion, transparently through Hong Kong or Shanghai (or quietly through Beijing and other ports of entry). Second, it keeps virtually all domestically mined gold “in house.” Full Story
Decades ago, one of the first things I did when I started looking after our aging parents’ money was move a substantial sum from their checking account to an interest-bearing account. When I asked why they had so much sitting in their checking account, they answered, “You never know. We may want to buy a new car.” Full Story
The general consensus that the decline in oil prices is a gift to consumers due to the lower fuel costs at the gas station is short sighted and unrealistic. This isn't because of the effects that lower fuel prices will have on the economy, but because of the belief that these low fuel prices are going to be permanent. In my opinion, these current oil prices are temporary because most shale oil producers are unprofitable at these levels. Full Story
The destruction wrought by the endless creation of fiat money is reaching a terminal phase. As spreads and carry trades are unwound, the effects have been devastating to individual commodities and this will soon spill over the entire global "economy". Full Story
Talk of deflation was overheard on the Street as a few analysts quoted by the news wires mentioned the D-word. One reason for the recent equity market weakness is the uncertainty among investors as to whether lower oil prices are ultimately beneficial or detrimental for the economy. In one camp are those who maintain that lower oil prices will boost consumption; on the other side are those who claim that plummeting energy prices can only lead to outright deflation. Because neither side has a decisive majority right now, equities are caught in the imbalance of opinion which explains much of the recent volatility. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 15 January, 2015
Sales of U.S. Mint Silver Eagles started off strong this year with 3.6 million sold in the first two reporting days of 2015. The U.S. Mint starting selling Gold Eagles last week with 51,500 ounces reported on the first day of sales. The U.S. Mint released the official first day of Silver Eagle sales on January 12th. Full Story
Remember this day – Wednesday, January 14th, 2015; as it may well be recalled as a key inflection point in financial history. Before writing this article, I had planned on writing of just one “historically momentous” event – which in and of itself, is noteworthy in the chronology of the global collapse of 2015; i.e., last night’s implosion of base metal prices, signaling the “death of manipulation” of the illicitly supported copper market. However, before I even started writing – at 8:40 AM EST – no less than seven such events littered the global economic and financial landscape. Full Story
Over the past several days I have analyzed dozens of high flying stocks with nosebleed multiples. They all have put in massive tops. It will not take much digging to find them, as they are ubiquitous. Here is an example of one. That is a 3 plus year chart and it has disaster written all over it. This means the rally is stocks is over. Full Story
The title is not meant to declare that this time gold stocks are going to exercise the excellent risk vs. reward stance vs. the US stock market. But it is meant to declare that the stimulus for the recent out performance is much healthier than it was last summer, during the last bounce. Full Story
My oldest grandson, Justin, has cerebral palsy. When he was in middle school, my daughter and her husband invited me to attend a parent-teacher conference. Justin’s teacher told us that one of his classmates had announced to the whole class that, according to his mother, all of the kids would be moved along no matter what. Full Story
The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is only 4 days away! Don't miss your chance to hear directly from over 50 conference speakers and visit over 300 exhibiting companies. Full Story
We all have our favorite childhood TV shows, and Lost in Space was one of mine. I’m really not trying to insult your intelligence by quoting fictional TV characters, but I do see some serious stock market danger ahead, and the Lost in Space robot may be more right about 2015 than the high-paid experts on Wall Street. Full Story
“If Obama vetoes the Keystone XL pipeline, he’s putting the American population at greater risk than ever before,” says Marin Katusa, best-selling author of The Colder War and chief investment strategist of the Casey Research energy team. Full Story
The biggest question for investors today is that whether or not rates will rise in 2015. The Fed may raise rates a token amount this year, but the move will be largely symbolic. With over $100 trillion in bonds and over $555 TRILLION in interest rate derivatives trading based on interest rates, the Fed will not be normalizing rates at any point in the future. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 14 January, 2015
The historical record indicates that the gold-mining sector performs very well during the first 18-24 months of a general equity bear market as long as the average gold-mining stock is not 'overbought' and over-valued at the beginning of the bear market. Unfortunately, the historical sample size is small. In fact, since the birth of the current monetary system there have been only two relevant cases. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 January, 2015
As the highly leveraged global financial system moves closer towards an epic collapse, investors unwittingly continue to pour money into the Mutual Fund Market. According to the ICI – Investment Company Institute’s Q3 2014 Report, net inflows into Mutual Funds Worldwide during the third quarter reached $320 billion, up from $285 billion in Q2 2014. Full Story
What can we expect in 2015? Global recession and civil disorder top the list, according to what I read. Given the way central banks and governments have sabotaged free markets at every turn, coupled with the belligerent nature of U.S. foreign policy and the militarization of our police, both forecasts strike me as plausible. Full Story
Ah, those “deflationists.” Whether “wave theorists”; “cycle theorists”; or my favorite of all, “proprietary technical analysts,” they continually claim that any price that’s falling must continue to fall – forever. That includes gold and silver as well, although unerringly such “experts” claim to be “short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.” I’ve been observing this fear-mongering phenomenon over a 26-year career as a CFA-chartered bond trader, stock trader, stock analyst, investor relations officer, and blog commentator. Full Story
So, for those that are still net long of metals and miners, as I am, still have no reason to be heavily hedged just yet. For those that still want to trade the short side aggressively, I still do not have a solid immediate pattern to present to you to substantiate a reason to be aggressively short just yet. At a minimum, I would need a 5 wave structure taking us below GLD 115.75 and 16.12 in silver to even begin considering it. Full Story
It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I’m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors. We will focus on events and trends that I think have a high probability, and I’ll state what I think the probabilities are for my forecasts to actually happen. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 13 January, 2015
Though the French central bank is, like other Western central banks, the agency of a nominally democratic government, its gold and currency market interventions will remain secret, the bank's director of market operations, Alexandre Gautier, wrote yesterday in a reply to our friend Fabrice Drouin Ristori, chief executive officer of Goldbroker.com. Full Story
Last week I described the story of my New Year’s Eve shenanigans where I conducted a very “informal” poll. If you recall, my goal for the evening was to slip the phrase “when the banks close this year” into each conversation I had. I did this to see what type of reactions it would elicit. Sure enough, 100% of the reactions were either disbelief, or belief I was a crazy man. Full Story
You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil-related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?” It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango. Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today. Full Story
I expect global jewellery demand to support consistently higher gold prices, well into the month of February. That’s partly because Chinese stock markets had a tremendous performance in 2014. Investors in China appear keen to celebrate the New Year by purchasing enormous amounts of gold jewellery. Full Story
With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture. Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts. Full Story
I believe today marked a breakout on the PM stock indexes and Gold which have different reversal patterns. Below is the combo chart we’ve been following that has the HUI on top and GLD on the bottom. As you can see the HUI broke above its double bottom trendline today while GLD broke above its neckline. Both reversal patterns have a price objective back up to the top rails of their 18 month consolidation patterns. Full Story
A couple of things worth mentioning. First of all is the CLOSING push past the 100 day moving average. That will attract the technical or chart-based trading funds. If they are short, they will cover; if not long, some will come in on a signal like this. Secondly – the price closed above the first level of chart resistance noted down near the $1225 level or so. That is the best CLOSING price in over one month. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 January, 2015
Silver hasn’t made nearly as much headway as gold in recent days. Although the latter pulled back to a midpoint pivot Monday ahead of a presumptive strong push higher, March Silver has yet to even reach the equivalent threshold. That would require a 53-cent thrust from these levels — quite a move merely to reach the starting line. In any case, while there is immediate upside potential to as high as 18.710, buyers will have to prove their mettle first with a decisive push past p=17.110. Full Story
Hopefully, you understand I am not actually “grateful” for these horrific circumstances. They were set in stone when the gold standard was abandoned 44 years ago; and trust us, it’s no coincidence they are occurring simultaneously. The end of history’s largest fiat Ponzi scheme is nigh; and the way things are headed, the “big one” could commence any day now. And when it does, if you haven’t already protected yourself with REAL MONEY, you may never get the chance to do so. Certainly, not at prices remotely close to today’s historically suppressed levels. Full Story
When China celebrates its new year next month, we will transition into the Year of the Ram, also known as the Year of the Goat or Sheep. If you believe in luck, this could be a good sign. The ram comes eighth in the 12-zodiac cycle, and in Mandarin, “eight” sounds very similar to the words meaning “prosper,” “wealth” or, in some dialects, “fortune.” As you might imagine, the Chinese consider the number to be very lucky. Full Story
Based on Copper’s chart, the global economy peaked back in 2011 and has been moving sideways ever since. Not anymore. We’ve not taken out critical support for Copper. The gigantic five-year “recovery” pattern has been broken. And it broke downwards. Full Story
We don’t normally analyze the crude oil market. However, there has been a huge price move (which may not be complete yet). With the endless rumors of deals that explain the move, we thought we would look at the spreads. The data shows a startling picture. You should approach supply and demand in this market similarly to gold and silver. The difference is that there is very little inventory buffered in the system. Notwithstanding what you read about China “buying up” the oil to take advantage of “cheap” prices, oil requires specialized storage facilities. There is a significant cost to store it, and finite capacity too. Full Story
We have so far analyzed the current situation in the oil market, suggesting that falling oil prices can indicate another recession in the not so distant future. So the obvious question arises: would it be positive or negative for the gold market? The answer depends on whether gold is pro-cyclical or not. Full Story
So what will 2015 bring? No doubt more of the same, at least for now. However, paper price clearly found a physical floor in November of last year, below $1180 and near $1150. Soon, support in this area will intersect The Banks' brutally enforced downtrend line. Before/when this happens, expect fireworks and tremendous volatility. Which direction price ultimately breaks will set the tone for remainder of this year. Full Story
Last week I tried to explain how systemically there is one giant and global margin call occurring. Today, I would like to take a step backwards to explain some of the mechanics. Though this is very basic, you must fully understand the “how” in order to get to the “why”. Everyone knows the U.S. went off the gold standard completely in 1971. Since then, (other than the Swiss until 1999), no nation has had any gold backing (or ratio backing) for their money. All currency has been “fiat” and was accepted on faith alone. Full Story
While precious metals and their corresponding equities continue to work through a multi-year painful correction, John Embry, Chief Portfolio Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, was kind enough to share a few comments. Speaking to the abysmal sentiment toward the sector, John explained that, “I’ve seen this sort of ‘bearishness at the bottom’ phenomenon many times …There was a really ugly bear period between ’74 and ’76 which I remember really well...” Full Story
Paul Joseph Goebbels was the Minister of Propaganda in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1945. He once said that if you tell a big enough lie and keep repeating it, people eventually come to believe it. Today’s governments together with the mainstream media seems to have taken Goebbels’ comment to heart. They omit facts and distort the truth to suit their agenda, while a completely different point of view is presented by highly qualified, intelligent analysts through blogs, websites and Internet articles. Full Story
Bullish gold bets by hedge funds increased for the first time in three weeks and have more than doubled since mid-November. Concurrently, short holdings dropped for the sixth week in seven. These actions come as political turmoil in Greece and government actions in Asia have sent gold prices to their biggest monthly advance since June. Full Story
The author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street outlines his most recent Wall Street Journal article on US equities. US stocks are overvalued according to the historical average (17) of the CAPE index; the current reading of 27 is comparable to the market zeniths of 1929 and 2008. The Silver Investor and host discuss how gold priced in Rubles skyrocketed 100% in a few weeks with virtually no warning. A similar event is imminent in dollars, which could elevate gold above $2,400 in short order. Full Story
Gold and silver prices are hovering on the brink of a breakout this weekend as financial markets contemplate the time bomb that is now ticking with the European Central Bank finally on the spot over quantitative easing after a slide into deflation last week. January 22nd is the next ECB meeting. So will it be QE or not QE? Full Story
Here is the latest chart detailing the relationship between the Hedge funds NET POSITIONING in the Comex gold market and the price of the actual metal. I have presented this chart for some time now over at my former website to rebut the silliness from the gold perma-bull camp that any moves lower in the price of gold are ALWAYS the result of “evil bullion banks working to suppress the price of the metal to discredit it”. That mindset had a place at one time – back when the US Dollar was sinking – but is now passé and an extreme waste of precious mental effort and time. Full Story
For hundreds of years the Romans administered a far flung empire with hand written documents. Meanwhile they stamped out billions of coins. So why didn’t they stamp out documents? This should have been trivial and obvious. Apparently making many uniform copies of documents was not nearly as important as making many uniform copies of coins. Full Story
You’ll definitely want to stick around later as we have an amazing interview about the secretive and far-reaching gold price suppression scheme that’s been going on behind the scenes. Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA, tells all in an exclusive interview with Money Metals, one that you won’t want to miss. But first, this week’s market update… Full Story
Got gold? Got silver? If not, you may not survive very well under the current and future regime[s] established in this country. Does price matter? Sure, everyone wants to buy reasonably near the lows, and there are many of us who paid substantially higher prices than currently exist. However, if there is no intent to sell but only hold as a form of wealth protection and/or a form of insurance against a worthless fiat paper currency, then price paid is really immaterial and focus should remain on purpose, not price. Owning and controlling either or both gold and silver are far more important. Full Story
A great move for markets off lows after another very short correction and now we’re setting up for much higher prices once again. We’ve got a few good stocks already and I’m looking for a few more and there are more and more who look ready to really move to the upside. The real question remains of whether these stocks will let us hold them for a while once they breakout or if they will only run hard for a short time as we’ve seen recently. Full Story
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