By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 15 August, 2008
-Takeover of U.S. industries to be piecemeal and disorganized…money from our competitors for world power… -A momentary turn from sin and wickedness…wearing black and blue in honor of Wall Street… -Inflation: a "tearless" way to cut workers' wages…vacation season in Europe…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 15 August, 2008
The weak dollar is merely a manifestation of substantial structural problems underlying the American economy. Unfortunately for us, the solution to those problems, as well as the global economic imbalances, can only be found in a weaker dollar. Efforts to artificially prop the dollar up will only exacerbate those imbalances, and make its ultimate fall that much more severe. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 15 August, 2008
The precious-metals stocks did not take kindly to gold’s steep selloff this week. On Monday the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunged 6.0% at the climax of what can only be described as a crash. In this event’s final 3 days, the HUI bled 13.1% of its value. In less than a month, it had plummeted 33.1% by the time the dust settled! Full Story
Some of the worst Investment Mistakes and Political Misjudgments occur as a result of the psychological impediment of “Denial.” Denial is a natural human tendency - - it is often easier, temporarily, to deny unpleasant realities than to actually address and cope with them. But failing to address, acknowledge and cope with unpleasant realities more often than not has quite deleterious consequences. Full Story
In closing I must say that the consumption of commodities around the world is likely to stay on course, and thus not lead to a meltdown in their prices. In fact after the July-August shakeout we must expect more sudden spikes on the upside, given the fact that a whole lot of commodity investors have left the commodity bourses, thus leaving the trading pits to a few commanding punters and extremely agile commercials - certainly not the most benevolent entities in the markets. Full Story
Sometimes the bad news is the good news. So it is with the report that retail sales are down by 0.1 percent in July, the sharpest drop in many months. Why good news? It means that consumers are starting to cut back. They could be going into less debt. They might be saving more. They are being more careful about long-term plans pending short-term trends. Full Story
In this systemic failure, what asset class will offer protection? Step forward precious metals which will first be considered as a no-other-alternative strategy and then gain an upward momentum as more and more climb on to the same bandwagon for survival. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 15 August, 2008
It seems to me that the silver price should about double, to about $30, within about 6 months, to a year at the most, at a minimum. On the other hand, if the paper market sizes up, or if the physical market continues to disconnect, who knows what the price will be, it could be much higher. Price doesn't mean anything if there is no product available. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 15 August, 2008
Traders enjoy the leverage that can be obtained using futures and options; however, I would like to bring to your attention the ability for you to invest with commodity-like leverage without as much risk. You see, many mining companies are similar to options that have an unlimited life. How would you like to buy a low price option on silver that never expired? Full Story
By: David Bond, Editor The Silver Valley Mining Journal - 15 August, 2008
We find this quite curious. It seems that when the price of silver is low, there is a shortage of silver, because people can't get enough of the white metal. When the price of silver is high, there is a shortage of silver, because folks can't get enough of it. Would it be too much of a reach to surmise that there's just a plain shortage of silver? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 15 August, 2008
In case you were wondering, China actually kicked our American butt a long time ago, as China 'surpassed the United States as the world's second largest gold producer in 2007 with 270.491 tons of output.' Full Story
Would a severe recession in the U.S. sink the global economy? As recently as five years ago, the answer probably would have been yes. But trade between foreign nations has been expanding so rapidly in recent years that a knockout punch, particularly to the robust Asian economies, seems unlikely. Full Story
It’s my opinion that the energy and metal markets are in the early stages of trying to see where a tradable bottom is. Rallies are met with deeper probes down. When the market makes a higher high, most likely a bottom will be in place. Full Story
US presidential candidate Barack Obama has proposed increasing the capital gains tax from 15% to 25%. Unfortunately, the biggest component of investment taxes during inflationary times is not taxation of economic income, but taxation of the government’s destruction of the value of its own currency. As we will explore in the article below, the 1-2 combination of higher inflation and higher investment taxes may mean a quadrupling of the effective real tax rate in 2009. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 14 August, 2008
-Financial news as dense as a Russian novel…consumers may be in bigger trouble than we anticipated… -The subprime crisis - worse than feared?…the glory days of 2006 are long-gone… -One in four houses sold in America today is sold at a loss…foreclosures continue to soar…the persistence of string beans…and more! Full Story
If poor financial performance stemming from ownership of junior resource companies is getting you down – read on for some valuable insight as to remedial, insulating actions you can take now to help protect and preserve your net worth. Full Story
It is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” Full Story
By: Mark O’Byrne, Executive Director of Gold and Silver Investments Limited - 14 August, 2008
It is important that investors look at their portfolios holistically and have a financial insurance component to their portfolio. Used correctly, a small allocation to British sovereigns can be a highly effective component of a properly diversified investment portfolio. Full Story
For readers who dislike the roller coaster price cycles of extreme highs punctuated by excessively lows, and who share the Optimist’s preferred approach of value investing, I offer a different way to view the value of silver and gold. My preferred approach is to reduce the volatility caused by currency exchange rate swings, and to chart the value of silver and gold against all fiat currency. Full Story
Gold and silver are likely to act more and more like a currency rather than metals with other uses from hereon. There will also be an increased decoupling from the euro and pound sterling which will go there own way against the dollar without influencing precious metal prices. Full Story
Essentially, my take on the bill is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have issued more debt than can be paid back, so the "solution" is to have the United States government essentially assume responsibility for this debt until the fact that the government cannot service its own debt is addressed. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 14 August, 2008
Over the past 37 years since gold was abandoned and the dollar became a fiat currency, every time the economy got into trouble interest rates were lowered and the supply of money and credit was increased. We believe this time it is going to be different. The banking system is broke and on its knees. A scenario far different than any of the previous crisis situations. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 14 August, 2008
As I stretched out on a pile of rotting cabbage in preparation for this exciting bit of news, I was actually all tingly at the thought of seeing how the inequality between the rich and the poor can be shown to be offset by sheer variety of goods in the marketplace! Full Story
The stock market has come to be driven almost entirely by technical trading, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see that so obvious a trendline as the one shown in the chart below has ruled the action in recent weeks. Between mid-July and early August, the E-Mini S&P has lit upon the support three times, attracting more and more technicians’ eyeballs with each successive bounce. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 13 August, 2008
-More of an exploration instead of predictions…turns out American homeowners are not 'upside-down' - they are simply 'inside-out'… -What if consumers, householders, investors, and businessmen all begin to downsize? What if the whole world began to slack off? -What if China, India and other emerging markets don't emerge as fast as we had hoped?…What if the finance industry and housing don't 'bounce back'?…and more what if's… Full Story
It's been 75 years since the federal government, on the spurious grounds of fighting the Great Depression, ordered the confiscation of all monetary gold from Americans, permitting trivial amounts for ornamental or industrial use. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Advisor – Euro Pacific Capital - 13 August, 2008
Despite a series of worrying news items last week, U.S. stock markets managed to deliver strong gains. Time and again, U.S. investors seem to turn lemons into lemonade by assuming each bad data point is an indication that the bottom is in. Is such behavior indicative of a stock market revival or simply evidence of a bear market rally? Full Story
The U.S. dollar is now as over bought as it has been. Note that each time dollar has spiked upward, another down leg was not too far off. Why does this happen? Most Forex trading systems are nothing more than momentum models. Some time is required to turn such models bullish. By the time they turn bullish, the move is old and they come in late. With the U.S. dollar incredibly over bought, Gold is on the bargain table. Rarely have we witnessed Gold this over sold for this long. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 13 August, 2008
'The modest decline corresponded with Rome's rise to become an empire. From the original 66 grains of silver, the value had only declined 10% to 60 grains, by the time of Julius Caesar (49 BC). But soon afterwards monetary tumult commenced in earnest.' Full Story
With at least 30 traders and lurkers in the room, he went on record with a prediction that stocks, metals and crude are headed lower, bonds higher. This sounds about right to us, although we prefer to take our forecasts one Hidden Pivot target at a time. For that reason, we regard Gold’s low yesterday at 808.60 as potentially important, since we’d projected a tradable low very close to it, at 810.20. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 12 August, 2008
-What happened to stagflation?…the feds are losing the battle…the dollar is gaining ground against its archenemy… -Do you feel that chill? That's the world economy, cooling off - and it looks as though nothing will be spared… -Even the 'prime' borrowers are in trouble…Greenspan's Age of Froth is over…what if the whole world entered a long, slow, slump?…and more! Full Story
I’ve been away on vacation since the middle of last week and did not write the weekly Gold & Silver Report. Needless to say, a bit of action occurred over the past few days. I will write a full market wrap this weekend, but I want to mention a few things because of what has transpired in the markets and in response to all the emails and messages I’ve received. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 12 August, 2008
Yesterday, silver hit a low, and was down dramatically to as low as $14.08/oz. I'm sure the dip caused a lot of margin calls on people who owned silver futures contracts, who had to sell out. Perhaps this is a time to review a few more reasons why all forms of paper silver are not as good as owning physical silver. Full Story
Market panics are a "harvest time" for seasoned speculators who, armed with a war chest of cash, coolly watch from the sidelines as the great unwashed masses push and shove and beat their way towards the exits, gripped by blind fear that the world is coming to an end, at least as far as their investments are concerned, and that if they don't sell immediately their previously cherished holdings, they will get much less for them later and perhaps nothing. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 12 August, 2008
Up until the past week or so there has been almost incessant talk in the press and many newsletters about the weak US dollar, but the US currency hasn't been universally weak since last November. Last November was when the Canadian Dollar and the British Pound commenced intermediate-term declines against the US$. Full Story
The recent price smash in silver, as well as a whole host of commodities, has created questions in every investor’s mind as to what happens next. This is particularly true for potential investors in silver, both those new to silver and those in the position to add to existing holdings. The sell-off has been so severe that it demands more than just simple answers. It requires that we go back to square one; back to the start. Full Story
Obviously, the PM sector is in the midst of another bone shattering selloff. However, when something occurs for only the second time in over 25 years, investors and traders should take notice. Ultimately, all we have is history to guide us, and history has repeatedly shown that such extremes are rarely sustainable absent some fundamental paradigm shift. In this case, what would that be? Full Story
But, you can’t stiff all the people all of the time. To what do we refer? Answer: The likelihood that once the Beijing Olympics are over, because increasing defaults of US corporate paper / agency debt leave a worsening bad taste on foreigner’s palates, demand for domestic sovereign debt is expected to wane at an accelerating rate, which would send bond yields (market rates) higher – possibly much higher. Full Story
There are some reasons to believe that the current correction in gold stocks is a bit overdone and we are currently going into a seasonally strong time for them so I wouldn't recommend eliminating them from your portfolio. That being said until fundamental conditions change, or until technical analysis shows an upside breakout in the behavior of the gold mining stocks, gold bullion and market short positions should make up a significant portion of one's portfolio for the duration of this crisis. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 12 August, 2008
I will note for the record that every time I try that crap with the employee pension plan or the petty cash account at work, everybody starts running around screaming about what a thieving, lying, despicable crook I am… Full Story
Global markets continued to punish gold yesterday for the speculative excesses of crude oil, a mere commodity. With the dollar robustly on the rise in recent weeks, spurred in part by the prospect of a plunging energy-trade deficit, it’s easy to understand why investors would treat the dollar as money and gold as a commodity. Of course, they have it exactly wrong, as most of you will already know. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listener questions.
2nd Hour: Bill Murphy: GATA & LeMetropole Cafe Full Story
The financial institution bailouts and the government taxpayer bailouts are looking more like socialism every day. I suspect that when we look back at this time in history four years from now, and marvel at the great increase in government ownership and socialism imbedded in the economy, we will have the Bush Administration to thank for sending us down the road to economic serfdom. Full Story
In short, if a discrepancy is opening up between gold and the gold stocks, the lesson of the market is that one must respect the mood of the market. Give the discrepancy its head and let it run as far as it wants. Don’t tell the market what it ought to do. Let the market tell you what it is going to do. When the discrepancy is so wide that the market wants to turn and correct it, then the market will tell you via the standard technical signals. It will not be hard to recognize. The problem will be to have enough patience and to keep perspective so that you can be ready when the time comes. Full Story
Conclusion - On balance I am leaning towards a short-lived corrective rally towards $900, to be followed by a further swing lower that on break of $846 would target a move towards $800. The key here will be whether or not $846 holds! Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 10 August, 2008
Let 8/8/08 stand as a testament to the unmitigated gall and flagrant manipulation of markets by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, known as the PPT, whose existence and 24/7 illegal intervention in every market on the planet, though unacknowledged by the Fed and our government, has now been confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. Let history show that the blatant cheating and insider trading made possible by Reagan's Executive Order 12631, issued 3/18/88, which has now been pushed to the outer limits of market tolerance, stand as a testimony against the current Administration when the testimony from the trials and recriminations is adduced during the Very Large Depression to come, as an outraged America seeks vengeance for the financial thievery, devastation and deceitfulness wrought by the Illuminati's perpetration of the greatest financial criminality in the history of mankind. Full Story
By: Boris Sobolev, Resource Stock Guide - 10 August, 2008
A popular mantra among many gold bugs is: “the Fed is printing money.” Any actions by the Fed to support liquidity in the markets are touted as “money creation” and consequently “monetary inflation” which causes gold appreciation. If gold does not rise, they proclaim that there is “manipulation” and “conspiracy”. Full Story
I have long been an admirer of the stock market cycle analysis of one Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, proprietor of SJK Capital and publisher of the cycle-based SineScope advisory. Kress has been in the equity market business all his adult life, either on Wall Street or in more recent years as an independent analyst/trader. If the Kress name seems familiar to you it’s probably because you remember the chain of S.H. Kress & Co. “five and dime” stores that once dotted the country. The store’s founder, Samuel H. Kress, was Bud’s grandfather. Full Story
The Rise of A New Asset Class, Part 2 Unrealistic Expectations The Boomers Break the Deal A Nation of Wal-Mart Greeters Weddings and 08-08-08 Full Story
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