Our research continues to argue that the current, record rebound in gold stocks will continue. Every time we’ve predicted a correction, the weakness in the sector has been only a fraction of what we expected in both price and time. New bull markets that follow epic bear markets typically show exceptional strength in their first year. This bull has been no different. Thus, we expect the strong performance to continue. Today, we share a few reasons why the junior sector is poised to outperform in nominal and real terms. Full Story
To sum up, growth is great but…business inventories are spiking, freight shipments are at six-year lows and the most recent regional manufacturing report is as close to no-growth as is possible without actually not growing. Which set of figures should we trust? Time will tell, but human nature being what it is, our money is on the bad ones. Full Story
By: Gordon T. Long and Jeff Snider - 15 July, 2016
What’s even more concerning is that not even is the top line falling off, but the cash flow is falling dramatically and this impacts credit along with everything else. With no earnings and no cash flow it puts us in a high risk environment. The only thing that has been holding up the market has been excessive corporate buybacks which has come out of cash flow, and to a lesser degree, borrowing. But to borrow is tough when you don’t have the cash flow to justify the credit ratings. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 15 July, 2016
Gold’s mighty new bull market this year has been amazing, the result of heavy buying by investors and speculators alike. But these latter traders have pumped so much capital into gold futures that this metal now faces a record selling overhang. Since the hyper-leveraged nature of futures trading demands an ultra-short-term focus, speculators’ excessive bullish bets on gold pose major near-term downside risks. Full Story
In the next big scary crash... A Roth IRA 'confiscation' could simply be presented as a subtle 'option' to 'protect you' with a 'government guarantee'. Even in a crisis, you may not be forced or 'invaded', but merely coerced into giving up a bit more control of your wealth - for the good of the cause. It might be billed as "Currency War Bonds" to protect us from the 'terrible' Chinese or Russians who are hacking our currency. Or some other story that captures the political wind. Full Story
Melt-ups precede a major stock market crash, and by all appearances we may be in a melt-up right now that could cause a stock market crash in 2016. First, a small bit of euphoria kicked up permabull adrenaline in the US market when Brexit didn’t make the American sky fall overnight. At the same time, central banks scurried to buy stocks all over the world just to make sure markets didn’t crash. Then the world’s oldest banks began to topple in Europe, causing European money to flee into American stocks. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 15 July, 2016
Gold's disparagers often say the monetary metal doesn't pay interest, though of course it does pay interest through gold lending, a common practice among central banks and bullion banks. Now the Monetary Metals investment house in Scottsdale, Arizona, run by Keith Weiner and Bron Suchecki, the latter formerly of the Perth Mint, has announced its own first gold leasing transaction -- to help finance the operations of the gold currency issuer Valaurum in Portland, Oregon. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente gives central bank monetary operations a new moniker, Ponzi-nomics. Through the issuance of easy credit, low interest rate bonds encourage corporate share buybacks, a major underpinning of the US stock market advance. The process is essentially a shell game, where the dealer wins at the expense of investors. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 15 July, 2016
Investors need to understand an important fundamental reason why the silver price will explode much higher than gold. While many analysts state several reasons why silver will outperform going forward, I believe one vital fundamental factor is overlooked. This critical factor is based upon a certain supply versus demand component of the gold and silver markets. Actually, I came across this data while working on the research for a completely different article. However, the more I compared the figures, the more surprised I was by the results. Full Story
The question now for many investors is whether or not to utilize the funds or hand select a list of individual companies that they think will do well in this unfolding bull market. In order to make this comparison we will take a quick look at the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDXJ). If we now look at its performance on a YTD basis we can see that this fund is up 160%, which is terrific. Some stocks have performed very well indeed and others have not been able to gain any real traction. Full Story
There has been a stunning post Brexit turnaround in the markets. Far from leading to chaos, the markets have taken it in their stride, and are now rising in anticipation of “helicopter money”. Helicopter money is basically unlimited global liquidity intended to head off a liquidity crunch and keep the game going as long as possible – this is the next and ultimate stage in the fiat endgame. The starting point for this is Japan, but it will quickly become global, and legal constraints can simply be brushed aside – if laws prohibit it, they can be changed. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 15 July, 2016
Getting back to the worry that central banks are out of bullets, it would actually be good news if they were. This is because a central bank does damage to the economy every time it fires one of its so-called monetary bullets. The damage usually won’t be apparent to the practitioners of the superficial, ad-hoc economics known as Keynesianism, but it will inevitably occur due to the falsification of price signals. Full Story
With Japan about to launch a $200 billion fiscal stimulus, you’d think the yen would be getting crushed. Instead, the long-term chart makes clear that the currency is merely correcting this year’s powerful rally, presumably in preparation for another monster leg higher later this year or early next. If it should come to pass, that would be bad news for the country’s export-led economy, since a strong yen increases the global price of Japanese goods. Full Story
The very first word anyone ever saw on a circulating United States coin was the word “LIBERTY.” From half-cents to silver dollars, each featured the likeness of an unnamed woman. The images varied, thanks to different engravers, but together they became recognized as Lady Liberty. Many, maybe most, of young America's citizens were illiterate. "Liberty" may have been the first word they ever learned to read. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 14 July, 2016
The BREXIT vote on June 23rd was part of a growing global trend in which ordinary people are expressing a desire to retain national sovereignty regardless of the cost and suffering that may be involved. The result is rightly seen as a repudiation of the political and financial elites, and should be viewed as evidence that the economic optimism presented in the halls of power has found scant credibility on the streets. The same sentiments can be seen on this side of the Atlantic in the surprising successes of the Donald Trump presidential campaign. Full Story
The markets are disappointed. It was expected that the Bank of England would usher in a new wave of Quantitative Easing (QE) at its most recent meeting, yet this was not the case. Mark Carney has surprised many investors, sticking to the data and stating that no significant impact can yet be seen from the recent successful Brexit vote. The fact is that the market is simply overreacting. The UK was and is going to remain one of the largest economies in the world. This economic powerhouse, although currently facing extreme uncertainty, is not going to disappear overnight. Full Story
It will be no surprise to readers to say that collectivism is growing in the Western World. It matters little whether we refer to it as socialism, communism, Marxism, Fabianism, totalitarianism or any of its other names, the collectivist ideal is on the rise. British conservatives worry over the extreme collectivist speeches of the new Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who is far more to the left of the former leader, Ed Miliband, yet often fail to notice that Tory leaders are also becoming more collectivist in their rhetoric. Full Story
The existence of this pattern, and its recent breakout confirm that the December 2015 bottom in silver is actually the bottom for the correction since 2011. This is a precious gift, if you were still unsure whether to get into silver or not. This was also confirmed by the fact that the USD/ZAR made a significant top very close to the December 2015 silver bottom USD/ZAR (a USD/ZAR top is a good signal to confirm a silver bottom). Full Story
US Stocks are flying high at the same time demand for sovereign bonds is soaring and precious metals are experiencing a bull market. That says to me that money is fleeing to safety, and the apparent irrational exuberance in the stock market, considering all the flights to safety, is partially fueled by foreign investors fleeing to US investments now that Europe’s cracks are showing like Frankensteins body seams. Full Story
As the abject failures of the past few years’ monetary experiments became apparent, it was clear that something else would have to be tried. The only questions were when this would happen and how crazy the next iteration would be. Both answers are now coming into focus, and they’re looking like “soon” and “really, really crazy.” Full Story
I finished my last writing with the question "will we still have the rule of law?" and commented what a can of worms this topic is. While I knew the question of the rule of law would certainly come up later this year, I had no idea how quickly! Normally forensic logic is a process of "connecting dots", in this instance the "dots" are more like one giant blob of crap covering the page entirely. On many previous occasions we have seen election fraud, market riggings and bogus economic reports, the corruption is now no longer contained or done in secret... it is done in public. Maybe so the public can "see it"? Let's take a look at "law". Full Story
The Fed’s strategy all along has been to foster an environment that favours speculators and punishes savers and they have succeeded in achieving their objective. The next stage will be to force these savers to speculate, and that is when we can expect this market to enter into the bubble phase. The Fed’s sole purpose since it began interfering with free market forces has been to facilitate boom and bust cycles. This bull market will only end when the masses finally give into it and in doing so set the stage for a bubble. History is replete with examples of how bull markets end. No bull market has ended without mass participation; the crowd has to turn euphoric before the bull kicks the bucket. Full Story
The banks, enabled by the bureaucracy create devastating economic and social policies abroad and at home. Hope calls for an uprising... as the banks maintain a desperate margined grip on the perception of real money...for now held captive by the greatest risk to the current fiat experiment. Get real before it's gone. Full Story
After 4 years of getting trounced, bulls have learned to be quite skeptical and gun shy. This is what a larger degree correction does to the market psyche, as it builds the “wall of worry” for the next bull phase. In fact, many of the staunchest of bulls over the last 4 years were caught looking lower when the metals bottomed, and, now, have been fighting the current rally, as they are looking for the metals to pullback. I have seen many analysts and market participants note that the metals have “gone too far too fast.” Full Story
It’s been a stellar six months for gold investors. The yellow metal has surged 28 percent year-to-date, its best first half of the year since 1974. And now there are signs that the rally is just getting started. That’s the assessment of analysts from UBS and Credit Suisse, who see gold entering a new bull run. According to UBS analyst Joni Teves, gold could climb to $1,400 an ounce in the short term on macroeconomic uncertainty, dovish monetary policy and lower yields. Full Story
When people use the term "money," it usually refers to a unit of currency used in the transacting of business and commerce. A woman works cleaning houses for a week and gets paid in a number of currency units and then goes to the supermarket and exchanges those units for food or diapers or medicine. What is left over at the end of the pay period is called "savings," which are allowed to accumulate receiving a modest rate of interest. Full Story
With both presidential candidates appearing eager to grow government size, the US central bank may have to revalue gold. If the Fed hiked rates aggressively, the US government could collapse. A gold revaluation policy would restore the government’s balance sheet and credit rating. A revaluation would also essentially devalue the fiat-oriented West, and revalue the citizens of India, who hold titanic amounts of gold. India, most of China, and the tiny Western gold community are probably on the cusp of a “bull era”. Full Story
We have been preaching for some time that in an era where both stocks and bonds may be expensive, investors may want to embrace alternative investments. I have been quoted saying that unless investors have at least 20% in alternative investments, they may not be truly diversified. While that quote made some headlines at the time, many college endowments have a far greater allocation to alternatives, at times more than half of their portfolio. Full Story
Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with positive comments on the PMs. The physical bullion market is finally overtaking the massive paper short positions, stymieing manipulation schemes. Global investors are cognizant of the currency wars and potential for EU disintegration, making PMs the central safe haven asset class. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 July, 2016
At some point, the Commercials may finally experience the SHORT SQUEEZE from hell as they will have to buy back their underwater positions as the price of silver surges higher. This will cause an even more dramatic move higher in the silver price as the Commercials try to exit a bad trade. That being said, the Commercials have controlled the silver price and market with their record short net positions in the past. But, there is always a FIRST TIME for everything. While I only look at these short-term trends for amusement, the mid to long term fundamentals point to a silver price that is considerably higher than it is today. Full Story
Commodities’ performance is quite a reversal from the weakness we’ve seen lately, particularly last year, but we shouldn’t expect another 2004 or 2005, when global trade was humming. Conditions are still not ripe for a real takeoff, with manufacturing activity in China and the eurozone struggling to gain momentum. Full Story
Silver out performs gold as both rise with Treasury bonds, which are in turn rising with stocks, as Junk bonds hit new recovery highs while USD remains firm as inflation expectations are out of the picture. This is highly atypical, maybe even unprecedented. Some, deeply dug into their particular disciplines and biases, might say it is dysfunctional, as this backdrop simply does not make sense using conventional methods of analysis. Why again did I name this service Notes From the Rabbit Hole? Full Story
Shakespeare was a romantic at heart. Thing is, he wasn’t just another lost hedonist submerged in self-seeking enrichment, but a romantic with a conscious and a friend of the average man never the less. You can of course see this in his writing, where the most common theme running through his work is ruthless ambition (and cruelty) leads to its own destruction, because this tendency is man’s downfall – and should be recognized, corrected, and avoided if possible. Full Story
A key sign of financial health is savings; if one does not have a decent amount of money tucked away for a rainy day, it is a sign that all is not well. Americans have a very hard time sticking to a budget and saving, compared to their Asian counterparts. This is reflected in the startling revelation that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account. Foreigners are shocked when they find out that Americans have so little money saved for a rainy day. Full Story
By 31 December 2015, GLD ‘only’ held 642 tonnes of gold bars. See above chart. Then as the New Year kicked off in January 2016, something dramatic happened. The SPDR Gold Trust began expanding its gold holdings again, and noticeably so. By 31 March 2016, the Trust held 819 tonnes of gold bars, and by 30 June 2016, it held 950 tonnes of gold bars. The latest figure at time of writing is 981 tonnes of gold bars as of 8 July 2016. Full Story
Gold demand has surged this year as seen in global gold ETF holdings. Holdings have increased by more than 500 tonnes since January, reaching a high of over 2,000 tonnes for the first time in three years. Investor gold demand has been prompted by slow global growth, negative interest rates in Europe and Japan, and the unlikelihood of the Federal Reserve raising rates in the near future. Full Story
Over the longer-term the prospects for both gold and silver are very bright indeed, because of the inexorable global trend towards hyperinflation, driven by the stark reality that there is now no way back for the Keynesian extremists who have created the present shambles. Given the current debt structure, any serious attempt to “apply the brakes” will result in a total implosion and collapse of the system, which will disappear into a neutron star like black hole. Full Story
Control the price of anything and you get control of the story. The U.S. Commodities Future Exchange (COMEX), a subsidiary of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is central to price discovery – and nothing else can compete. Price action on the big silver ETF, SLV does not (yet!) factor into a price that begins and ends with a trading structure that is rigged to the tune of a few traders who dominate one side of the trade. Full Story
Nothing is more shameless in a bedazzling sort of way than rich banksters standing on the public curb with their hands out. First, we had the admission this past week by a major French bank that Italian banks are so sick (and so too big to fail) they could cause systemic banking failure throughout Europe if not bailed out by over-taxed taxpayers. Full Story
There is a sense of foreboding among contrarians and central bank skeptics that the other shoe has yet to fall following the “Brexit” referendum. Meanwhile, mainstream commentators are almost gloating that British stocks (to say nothing of US stocks) have recovered their losses since the vote was tallied. In their unseemly rush to declare the all’s clear, they omit to mention that the British pound is down from about $1.45 to about $1.29, or -11%. Full Story
While I’m expecting some kind of pullback at the $1390-$1400 level, I don’t think gold’s intermediate cycle will top until at least retracing the 50% Fibonacci level and probably back to $1550 by September. This will almost certainly be driven by an aggressive moved down in the US Dollar as it really starts to accelerate into the next 3 year cycle low due sometime net summer or fall. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 11 July, 2016
It is useful to follow gold’s performance in terms of the more-junior currencies, for two main reasons. First, gold tends to bottom in terms of these currencies well before it bottoms in terms of the senior currency (the US$). Second, money can sometimes be made by owning the stocks of gold-mining companies operating in countries with relatively weak currencies even when the US$ gold price is in a bearish trend. Full Story
Joseph Grosso - Golden Arrow, Executive Chairman, CEO, and President, Senior Vice President of Golden Arrow makes his show debut. Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns to the show with his latest insights on the PMs sector. Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the current silver market eruption, as predicted two weeks earlier on the show. Full Story
Several important factors work in a powerful manner to debilitate, to distort, and to wreck the global financial and economic system. It is long past the point of effective remedy. After the Lehman kill event, every conceivable wrong move and policy was made and implemented. The investment in the corrupt elements has been so profound in the last several years, as to make remedy impossible. The official policies have been so errant and heretical, as to make remedy impossible. The distortions with the broken elements have been so dedicated in service to the ruling banker class, as to make remedy impossible. Full Story
The gold price was sold lower in fits and starts until about ten minutes before the COMEX open. At that point a rally began that was stepped on minutes before the job numbers were released. Then JPMorgan et al pulled the pin — and in seconds the price was down almost 25 bucks. Then it came roaring back — and that rally was capped less than forty-five minutes later, as it was about to go vertical. From there it was quietly sold off until shortly before noon in New York. At that juncture, the price began to creep higher almost without interruption until 4:30 p.m. in the very thinly-traded after-hours market. The gold price didn’t do much after that. Full Story
The mainstream financial media, as well as some retail investors, have awakened to the surge in the price of silver, relative to just about everything else in 2016. And while this rally feels different, are we there yet? Or are we close to the point where COMEX doesn't matter as far as price discovery is concerned? I realize the question always comes down to if not now, then when? But “how?” is a close second. Full Story
This first chart for tonight is the GOLD:XAU ratio combo chart we’ve been following very closely. I just want to make it perfectly clear what this ratio chart is telling us. The ratio chart on top is telling us that gold is in a parabolic collapse vs the XAU after 20 years of out performance. Even though they can both go up together the XAU stocks are going up parabolic to gold as shown by the vertical move down in the ratio and the vertical move up in the XAU. Full Story
When the yield curve is steeply positive, banks are able to borrow short at low rates and lend long at higher rates, earning a nice return and in the process driving economic growth. When the yield curve flattens the opposite occurs, with banks unable to make money and becoming reluctant to lend. So a flattening yield curve implies a slowing economy. Note the similarity between the past few years’ spread contraction and the one that began in 2004 and culminated in the Great Recession. Full Story
I listened to the debate between Rick Ackerman and Mike Shedlock on the Kereport today and I just had to comment. We have a perfect example of two analysts locked into the deflationary crash scenario by what happened in 2009. Both are deflationists and both have been wrong all year long, and basically wrong since the bottom in 2009. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 10 July, 2016
The top two gold miners burned a record amount of fuel to produce gold in 2015. Even though Barrick and Newmont burned less overall fuel than their operations did in 2013, their consumption per ounce of gold produced was the highest ever. This is not good news for the gold mining industry as the world has peaked in cheap oil production. While total global liquid energy production continues to be at record levels, the high-value cheap light sweet crude oil peaked several years ago. Full Story
Jason Zweig, who a year ago called Gold a “pet rock” is doubling down. He reiterates his belief, albeit a misguided one that Gold is a pet rock and justifies it with the usual anti gold bug propaganda. Unfortunately, Zweig along with many gold-bashers and ironically some gold bugs continue to either neglect Gold’s major fundamental driver or have no clue about it. Full Story
I rarely write on Fridays, but here I am Friday afternoon, writing my second article of the day. The first, discussing how today’s LOL, “jobs” report permanently destroyed the BLS’s credibility. The reason being, that for the first time in my 14½ years in this sector, I believe the Cartel’s demise is imminent. As in, I would be shocked if they survive July. Full Story
A cracker of a week to let our stock positions consolidate and now they have resumed their upwards trajectories. Precious metals are also doing very, very well along with miners. There really isn’t a lot to say with everything acting very orderly this past week and looking to continue that trend. Gold gained 1.67% this past week and is setup to continue its move higher anytime now. Gold is setting up a nice bull flag with $1,370 a buy area out of this flag. Full Story
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