There is some talk among traders about precious metals breaking out. Silver broke a trendline dating back to summer 2011 and will make its highest weekly close in more than three months. Gold will make its highest weekly close in three months and gold miners had a very strong week. However, do these moves really register as breakouts? Not quite yet say the charts. Full Story
The "Perfect Storm" of 1991, as described in the best-selling book by Sebastian Junger, resulted from massive weather systems converging to create the storm of a century. In the financial world at this very moment, we have eight different "weather systems" that are all developing in real time. While the defenses in place may be able to easily withstand any one or two of these concerns in isolation – the danger is the increased power of a "storm" that can result from the merging of multiple systems together. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 15 May, 2015
Silver has enjoyed a fantastic week, awakening from its bottoming slumber to surge with gold. And this strong silver investment demand is likely only starting. American stock traders and futures speculators control two of the world’s largest pools of capital active in the silver market. And the former group still remains woefully underinvested in silver, while the latter still has massive short positions left to cover. Full Story
I was a halfway decent skier when I was a kid. Good enough that I could navigate every trail on the mountain except for one or two. Good enough that I could do the double black diamonds. My grandfather built a cabin on the access road to Sugarbush, Vermont, in the ‘80s and sold it in the ‘90s. Makes me weep when I think what that thing would be worth now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I come from a financially unsophisticated family. Full Story
The dollar is sinking like a stone. Paper gold and silver are rallying and above their major moving averages. Physical metal demand continues to accelerate worldwide. What a perfect time to get an update from our friend, Andrew Maguire. This was recorded Friday morning US time, between 11:00 and and 11:30 am EDT, so it's about as current as you can get. Full Story
It is quite fascinating that the ultimate case for continued equity and bond price growth comes from the unspoken assumption that we will get another round or rounds of QE. This open assumption is that things are so good that we are about to move into perpetual growth mode as the recovery breaks away into the growth. Full Story
The biggest question for investors today is that whether or not rates will rise in 2015. The Fed may raise rates a token amount this year, but the move will be largely symbolic. With over $100 trillion in bonds and over $555 TRILLION in interest rate derivatives trading based on interest rates, the Fed will not be normalizing rates at any point in the future. Full Story
BIG PICTURE – The global economy softened during the first quarter of this year; however, reflationary efforts by the central banks should bring about a pick-up in business activity. At this stage, it is difficult to tell precisely when the economy will accelerate, but we suspect that various data points will show a marked improvement during the back half of this year. Full Story
What is going on with bonds? Over the past few weeks, it appears that bonds are having a massive heart attack. Just a few short weeks ago it appeared that the German Bunds (German bonds are called bunds) were about to plunge under 0%. After all, there was already upwards of $2 to $3 trillion of debt in the Euro zone trading at negative yields. The ECB’s €1 trillion QE program had sparked a huge run into bonds. The market was effectively front running the ECB. That in turn was creating liquidity problems in the bond market. German 10-year yields were pushed to a low of around 0.05%. Full Story
Over the last weeks, a great debate has erupted regarding silver. More to the point, Ted Butler claims JP Morgan has accumulated at least 350 million physical ounces. Some pooh pooh this and say it is not possible while others who may believe it are scared witless because they are afraid Morgan will dump the metal and destroy the silver price. Full Story
By: Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst - 14 May, 2015
At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum last month, China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made it clear he believes the renminbi is “ready for reserve status.” It would be a huge step for the Chinese currency, starting with the fact that it would be added to the basket of currencies IMF member countries can include in their official reserves. Billions would be invested in it. Full Story
When interest rates are zero and it costs a bank to look after your money it becomes an unattractive asset. Banks in some jurisdictions (such as Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden) are even charging customers interest on cash and deposits. And if you go to your bank and withdraw large amounts in the form of folding notes to avoid these charges you will be lucky if you are not treated as a sort of pariah. For the moment, at least, these problems do not extend to sound money, in other words gold. Full Story
This is Part 2 of a two-part series. Part 1, titled “Venezuela’s Gold Reserves – Part 1: El Oro, El BCV, y Los Bancos de Lingotes“, provided a historical overview of Venezuela’s gold and looked at where the gold, and the claims on gold, were located just prior to repatriation in 2011, especially the gold held abroad. Part 1 was necessary so as to set the scene for the, in some ways, theatrical gold flights and convoys of Part 2, and to also illustrate that a percentage of Venezuela’s gold (50 tonnes) was retained in the vaults of the Bank of England so as to be available for activation into international gold transactions. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 14 May, 2015
If commentary published tonight in the London Telegraph is any indication, gold bugs may not be quite as paranoid as their stereotype. The commentary, written by Jim Leaviss of M&G Investments in London, argues that governments could stop the boom and bust of the business cycle if only cash was eliminated and replaced by electronic money. Leaviss says a step toward such a change is already under consideration in Denmark. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 13 May, 2015
We live in an age where bad economic news is not only unwelcome, but it is routinely overlooked or excused. On the other hand, good news is spotted and trumpeted even when it doesn't exist. An ideal illustration of this dangerous tendency towards collective selectivity came last week when the markets and the media somehow turned an awful employment report into an ideal data set that confirmed all optimism and contained nothing but good news for investors. In truth, it was anything but. Full Story
Gold broke $1,200 today after a report that retail sales have slumped. Why would gold surge on downbeat economic news? As Ron Paul explains, things are not always what they seem. Full Story
Over the years, I have written occasionally about the connection between the demand for U.S. government debt and quantitative easing. My contention is straightforward. The primary determinant for quantitative easing is not, as we are constantly told, to keep the unemployment rate down, nor is it to stimulate the economy. (I emphasize the word “primary” as opposed to the word “only”) It is to support the government debt market and keep government in business – not just in the United States but wherever it is employed. Full Story
Venezuela’s gold reserves have rarely stayed out of the financial news headlines over the last four years. From initial gold repatriation announcements in August 2011, through to gold shipments from Europe to Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, in late 2011 and early 2012, as well as the more recent negotiations on using gold in swaps and for loan collateral, the Venezuelan gold story has filled many column inches. Full Story
It is so important you understand “what” is happening and have an idea of “why”. Let me tackle the what part first, We are witnessing sovereign bonds and their yields move in wider standard deviations than most commodities ever do. When you hear the word “commodity” you should think “risky risky” because they have wild moves limit up and limit down, it’s the way the game is played and should be expected. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 13 May, 2015
The price of silver opens trading on Wednesday at a very key technical junction with a 4+ year downtrend in play. At the open of futures trading, the silver price is challenging, and now breaking above, a very significant technical level, around $16.80-$17 an ounce. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 13 May, 2015
The British General Election, on May 7th, was an epic in two respects. First, in spite of polls forecasting a hung parliament, David Cameron's Conservative Party was given unexpectedly large support, winning 331 seats, or 51 % for an overall majority of four,and showing once again the failure of left wing parties to make traction in Europe. Second, Nicola Sturgeon's Scottish Nationalists Party (SNP) swept the Labour Party aside in Scotland to achieve an unexpected landslide and rekindle Scottish pressure for independence and, with it, a threat to the continued cohesion of the United Kingdom. Likely there will be important long-term repercussions for the United States. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 13 May, 2015
Of course GATA aspires to defeat this system; doing so would change the world, liberate it. Enough publicity just might accomplish this. But far from being a "permabull" for gold, GATA tells investors in the monetary metals what they're up against: an ever-intensifying phenomenon that even some central bankers call "financial repression." Thus GATA is very bad for the business of mere stock touting -- which may explain Moriarty's sneering misrepresentation. Full Story
Over the last few months, we have been attempting to look up within a larger degree bearish market to trade a counter-trend rally. As I have also stated many times, this is fraught with numerous pitfalls. Even though the market may come back down in our face if it decides to begin to head to lower lows sooner than expected, we usually should be given some amount of early warning before that occurs. This past week, I sent out a Market Update providing guidance as to what one should be looking for to confirm a bearish set up is taking hold. Full Story
Something very serious is happening behind the scenes, what exactly we cannot know. We can however do math and know that if something “bad” happens with the amounts of debt, financial leverage and derivatives outstanding, the result will not be “good”. Please, do whatever it is you think you must to prepare. This one episode alone should be enough to show you, “you didn’t even notice it was happening”. To save you the time of commenting and telling me this will continue as “business as usual”, the central banks cannot save the world forever as their own balance sheets are rotten to the core! They have done this to themselves… Full Story
It was somewhat surprising (to me at least) that more damage was not done to economies and financial markets as gold vs. commodities launched upward and changed a macro signal last year. It is not surprising however, that a stable backdrop has settled into the investment world as gold corrects that impulsive looking up leg. If you look closely, you might interpret this to be an A-B-C correction of a still active technical signal (green arrow at the beginning of 2015). Full Story
The Chinese government seems to be very keen on developing the New Silk Road Economic Belt as fast as possible; an initiative, said to be designed by President Xi Jinping himself, that will increase economic cooperation in the wide Eurasian region. At a stunning speed China and Russia take the lead in strengthening ties in the area. For the wind down of the US dollar hegemony the Silk Road economic project is an important tool. Full Story
The first four months of 2015 have seen many gold stocks stage tremendous rallies. In many cases, but not all, the gains appear to be “here to stay”. When some individual gold stocks rise by 100% - 400% in just four months, investors can begin to feel it’s a stock picker’s market. While the best stocks will always produce bigger returns than the worst ones in any sector, I think what is occurring in the precious metal stocks is something very much “bigger”. Full Story
The old adage “sell in May and go away” does have some merit. According to the Ned Davis (NDR) database, had you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 every May 1st starting in 1950 and sold October 31 of the same year, your initial position would only be worth $10,026 as of 2008. Put another way, by investing only from May through October, a $10,000 stake invested in 1950 would have only made $26 in 57 years. Full Story
Our long, two-month trip on a slow naval transport ship must have been frightening to my then 20-year-old mother. But she was eager to start a new life in America… a place where anyone who studied hard and worked hard could be successful. I was less than two years old when my parents divorced in 1957. My 20-year-old Japanese mother suddenly found herself living in a strange country with no family, friends, money, food or place to live. Full Story
As I’ve mention previously JPMorgan is still stopping (taking) silver deliveries in its own house account. In the May COMEX futures contract, they’ve taken over three million ounces so far. It still looks like JPM will take another million ounces or so before the delivery period is over. This is in addition to the 7.5 million ounces the bank took in the March delivery period. Full Story
Over the course of the past reporting month, the price of gold has fallen by $17 while total Comex gold open interest rose by 9,427 contracts from 390,571 to 399,998. The "data" shows that the 24 Banks covered by the report decreased their combined NET SHORT position from 74,187 to 56,819 contracts over this time period. Full Story
Who could forget these poignant lyrics penned and performed by the eagles all those years ago – never more germane concerning the human experience than today. Of course back in the 70’s, the eagles were talking about those who chose this path from a personal perspective, taking drugs and burning out, not in terms of what’s happening now. What do I mean? Full Story
Markets seem to have gotten more bipolar in the past couple of weeks. The US Dollar index has finally had the rollover I was expecting. I’m not assuming yet that that was “it”. The overwhelming consensus on Wall St is still that the greenback has to go higher once the Fed finally starts its tightening cycle. As you know, I don’t happen to agree with that consensus but I don’t underestimate the power of the herd when it comes to things like this. The fact that the USD didn’t rise the last four times the Fed tightened, as I pointed out in the last issue, seems lost on everyone. Strange. Full Story
By: Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst - 11 May, 2015
If you’re an investor, the price of silver is poised for a massive rebound, after one of the most severe bear markets in history. Silver has declined three consecutive years—and hasn’t fallen four straight years since 1991. The price is so undervalued that adjusted for inflation, $17 silver is equivalent to about $4 in the year 2000! Full Story
Back in March I shared the fact that Americans drove a record 3.05 trillion miles on U.S. highways in January 2015 for the 12-month period, with even more expected this year. Now the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed that international passenger traffic in March rose 7 percent from the same time a year ago. Except for Africa, every region around the globe recorded year-over-year increases in air traffic. Full Story
Hailing from scenic Zurich Switzerland, Jim Rogers outlines his investing plan for 2015. WTIC appears to be oversold - expect an important bottom this year. The investing legend plans to increase his stockpile of gold at under $1,000 an ounce. According to Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, a particular angle of ascent or slope has lead to a market zenith for nearly 14 consecutive years. He presents the precise slope angle and a simple means to calculate the trendline (slope = 68.3 / 238 days = 0.28584) for virtually any forecasting chart. The Silver Investor David Morgan views dollar strength as a direct result of capital flight from the EU. Still, the US dollar is a flawed currency, losing over 95% of its value due to Fed machinations. Full Story
US National Debt: We know the progression of debt – it increases, or it increases rapidly. Since 1913 the official US national debt has increased about 9% per year – every year. Has the economy increased 9% per year? Of course not! And that is why, in truly simple terms, prices rise. The same is largely true in the UK, Europe, and Japan. It is the same old story throughout the history of other fiat currency experiments. Full Story
Governments around the world are making it more difficult to save and transact with cash in their latest attempts to financially suppress their citizens. Their goal is to force citizens to deposit cash and charge interest as well as having total control over the money on deposit. In France, individuals will not be allowed to make cash payments exceeding 1,000 euros. Additionally, cash deposits and withdrawals totaling more than 10,000 per month will be reported to the anti-fraud and money laundering agency. Full Story
When the imports and exports figures of March were released, the world was taken aback when the United States announced that their trade deficit has ballooned $51.4 billion, a 43% increase from February, where the deficit was “only” $35.9 billion. Though there was a slight jump in exports, from $186.2 billion to $187.8 billion, imports increased 7.7% from $222.1 billion to $239.2 billion. Full Story
A first time for everything. This week was the first time I ever went to basically cash before the jobs report was released. It’s still too early to know yet if this was a right or wrong decision depending on what the stock markets do next week. I thought I’d give it a shot as these job reports always seem to catch you leaning the wrong way especially in a sideways trading range. Today was no exception. Many times a big rally on a Friday will lead to some follow through on Monday and then we get turn around Tuesday. At any rate we have a lot of cash on the sidelines that can be put to work when the time is right. Full Story
Crude has had a very nice recovery off its recent low set in mid-March with a steady climb of nearly $20 since that time. The push through the declining 50 day moving average was the first real clue that the complexion of this market had changed in late March with the deciding factor being the second thrust back up through it once more in early April. That cemented the low near $43 as a solid bottom in the market. Full Story
Markets remained in their large patterns for the most part with the exception of the Russell 2000, who seemed to be leading us lower but now not so much. Markets remain muddled as a result and until we breakout one way or another I’ll sit in cash and wait. I didn’t really do anything this past week in terms of trading even though we did see some strong moves both up and down, but still within the choppy pattern we’ve seen for some time. Full Story
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