I like reading through the news app on my phone off and on throughout the week as a way to step back from my spreadsheets and research papers and tune into what is going on in society and what the large news outlets are touting at the moment. One prominent message kept sticking out at me: Big banks are expecting a plunge in the stock market. Full Story
The Equities Market Sell-Off and Economic Data continue to support Deepcaster’s often-expressed View that the International and the USA’s Economy is slowing with Key downstream consequences being that there will be many more Debt Defaults and Earnings Misses, with predictable Negative Consequences for Equities and other Markets and Economies. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 15 January, 2016
The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway. The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation. Unfortunately the only possible reckoning after such a record artificial stock boost is a long-overdue major bear market that is finally awakening. Full Story
United States equities have long been skating on thin ice. It appears they have finally collapsed through it, and are now treading water before sinking deeper. From an historical standpoint they have arguably been overpriced for most if not all of the past twenty years. Their dividend yields, price-earnings ratios, price to book values and other meaningful measures have long ago gone beyond all safe valuation parameters. For over hundred years, similar conditions have always signaled caution, if not danger. Why is it now that stocks appear to be finally breaking down, and sounding the alarm of an impending Bear Market? Full Story
We all know that gold prices in US dollars have been in a downtrend for about 4.5 years. We all know that gold prices rise, on average, as the underlying currency declines in value. Gold in the US was priced under $21 per ounce when the Federal Reserve was established. Since then the dollar has been devalued and gold has increased in price by a factor of about 50. Full Story
The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 15 January, 2016
I consider the gold/GYX ratio (the price of gold relative to the price of a basket of industrial metals) to be the ultimate boom-bust indicator. With monotonous regularity, the gold price trends downward relative to the prices of industrial metals during the boom periods and upward relative to the prices of industrial metals during the ensuing busts. Not surprisingly, given economic reality, in addition to being an excellent boom-bust indicator the relative performances of gold and the industrial metals is also an excellent indicator of general (societal) time preference. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 January, 2016
Now wasn’t that rally special! Our friend Mike Schurr alerted me Wednesday night to the pattern shown, instantly solving the mystery of why the futures were refusing to go any lower despite evidence that the world economy is rapidly going to hell in a hand basket. Buyers briefly changed their deranged minds in the early going Thursday morning, surrendering the modest gains that had been achieved overnight. But when they caught a whiff of bull manure emanating from the energy patch, where crude was in the throes of a dead-cat bounce, the short-squeeze on Wall Street was off and running. Full Story
Peter Schiff believes the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate hike was actually the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle that began with the first talk of tapering quantitative easing (QE) several years ago. Economic data will continue to be weak, and the US will likely be in an official recession in 2016 if it isn’t already. The Fed will be forced to restart QE and lower interest rates again, maybe even into negative territory. When that happens, investors who have been selling gold on expectations of economic health will have to reverse their bets and begin buying as gold rallies. Full Story
The implications of this 60 year quarterly chart for the CRB index is staggering if it completes this impulse move down which so far has been working out beautifully. Again on this massive time scale you can see an unbalanced HandS top that measures out to just below the major support zone at the bottom of the chart. Full Story
I must say that I continue to be amazed at how “CALM” things are in these equity markets in spite of the significant chart breakdowns that are now being seen in so many different sectors. Look at how meager the move higher in the VIX has been especially compared to where it was back in August of last year during the “Flash Crash” that occurred back then. Full Story
The London spot price of the shiny metal, in U.S. dollars, declined 9.56 percent from $1172 to $1060 last year, marking its fourth full year in a bear market. It also fell from the perspective of the Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen. However, gold prices quoted in other major currencies show a different picture. Full Story
I recently had a long and very interesting conversation with John Embry of Sprott Resources. It is always good to speak with him as I consider him one of the five sharpest economic/precious metals minds I know of and certainly value his opinion. John's name came up a couple of days ago when someone asked "where is all this silver coming from" to meet the outsized physical demand? I said "this is the number one question John Embry and Eric Sprott have been asking for about a year now". Full Story
There’s a good reason I spent the entirety of yesterday’s article discussing the blatancy of the past week’s market rigging’s; as clearly, TPTB are hell bent on “reversing” the ugliest annual start of currency, commodity, and equity trading in global history – no matter that the very same issues that catalyzed it, have decidedly intensified. To wit, in yesterday’s “very, very last to go,” I espoused that, aside from the same, prototypical gold and silver price suppression algorithms we have observed for years… Full Story
As the presidential primaries quickly approach, the establishment is in panic mode over the prospect of losing control. It’s not just about Donald Trump. The political class, the “mainstream” media, Wall Street, and the central banking cartel are all losing credibility in the eyes of the public. 2016 is shaping up as the year of “We’re not gonna take it anymore” – in more ways than one. It’s an encouraging development for precious metals investors and sound money advocates. Full Story
The markets are not free; corrections end at arbitrary points. In other words, the top players decide when the markets will correct and how far they will drop and or rise. This is why we focus on the trend and not absolute price targets as almost all free market forces have been removed. However, some individuals are still fixated to the idea of exact points, as opposed to the idea of viewing strong pullbacks as buying opportunities. This kind of mentality is what led these individuals to miss out on this 7-year bull market, and they look back sorrowfully wishing they had jumped in. Full Story
So what’s wrong with sticking to one’s holdings when they tank? I would be the first to agree to encourage investors to stick to a plan when the markets are in turmoil, but only if its investors have been on a plan all along. Let’s assume for a moment that an investor has done his or her homework, possibly even sat down with a financial planner or given his or her money to someone to manage. We are all good then, right? I’m afraid that may not yet cut it. Full Story
As stock markets all over the globe start the week with more cliff diving, following their worst opening week in history, I’d like to take this opportunity to jam my finger in the central bank’s eye. The Federal Reserve’s recovery plan — which I’ll call “Goliath” because of its giant monetary expansion — is now dying. Its obituaries are quickly hitting newspapers all over the world. Full Story
I may be alone in this but 2008 was a mistake. Those that seek to control the markets were caught off guard and here is why. The equity markets can be controlled and are controlled. The big banks don’t ever go to zero because stocks tanked. Look at the flash crash and the absurd excuse that a small firm in the Mid-West caused a crash. Are you serious? What that crash accomplished was chart painting and the chart is what gives the computers direction via time and price. In one several hour time period, stops were run and gaps were filled off the Satan low. The pundits on CNBC were able to convince the masses it was a one off and the rest is history. Full Story
On Wednesday, I published a mid-week metals update for members that said that “I have no reason to go short this market yet,” and that “I intend to ride this rally up.” The next day saw gold and miners rally quite strongly. And, as usual, we are hearing from most market participants about how the metals are “finally” breaking out. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 January, 2016
In a surprising update, the world largest silver producer actually experienced a decline in silver mine supply over the past two years. This is quite remarkable as several analysts and official sources reported or perceived that Mexico continued to shown an increase in silver production. I wrote about this in my precious article, Biggest Silver Supply Losers for 2015. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 January, 2016
Traders seem obsessed lately with the ups, and mostly downs, of crude oil — so much so that every dip, feint and jiggle in energy futures is being replicated almost tick-for-tick by the S and Ps. A recent op-ed piece by Don Luskin in the Wall Street Journal asserted that falling oil prices brought on mainly by a fracking glut are crushing the world economy, but this gets it exactly wrong. In fact, falling crude prices are merely symptomatic, albeit in a big way, of deflationary forces that are starting to implode the global economy with black-hole force. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 12 January, 2016
Last week a major diplomatic crisis developed between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the Saudi execution of Nimr al Nimr, a charismatic Shiite cleric and anti-Sunni political activist. Nimr's execution was an important political decision. On its face, it served to increase tensions in the developing struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional influence, a drama that has come to full boil as a result of decades of American policy mistakes. This Middle Eastern cold war, which divides Islam along Sunni/Shia sectarian lines, now threatens international oil supplies and regional peace. Full Story
Silver thrives, paper dies! That mantra will serve us well in 2016 and 2017 since paper silver prices are currently very low compared to ratios to the US national debt, the SPX 500 Index, total global debt, fiscal and monetary silliness, and political stupidity (graphs not shown). If risk has been mispriced because the “risk pricing mechanism is broken” as Michael Burry says, then we should expect a volatile and traumatic year in 2016 as risk pricing adjusts. Full Story
Over the past month, there have been at least three separate occasions in which silver rallied sharply in a single day, only to lose most of those gains the next day. On another occasion silver rallied over several days, only to lose its gains in one day. This is highly unusual price behavior, even for silver, the world’s most manipulated market. There are no legitimate supply/demand explanations for this kind of erratic price behavior. It always comes down to who’s tapping who on the COMEX - check that - it always comes down to how the commercials are tapping the technical funds. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 January, 2016
Hathaway argues that paper gold is overdue for a short squeeze, that the above-ground stock of gold is not as liquid and available for quelling prices as many analysts assume, that metal for immediate delivery in London and New York is shrinking fast, and that China, India, Russia, and Turkey alone are buying more gold than is being mined. He quotes GATA consultant Koos Jansen about China's gold strategy. Full Story
On Friday, I attended a digital money summit at the Consumer Electronics Show. I am writing to you to warn you about the disruption that is about to occur in banking. There are many startups (and larger companies too) that are gunning for you. Perhaps you have watched what Uber has done to the taxi business? Well, these guys are planning the same thing for the banking business. Full Story
Who says gold lost its appeal as a safe haven asset? After five straight positive trading sessions last week, the yellow metal climbed above $1,100, its highest level in nine weeks, on a weaker U.S. dollar.. The rally proves that gold still retains its status as a safe haven among investors, who were motivated by a rocky Chinese stock market, North Korea’s announcement that it detonated a hydrogen bomb last Wednesday and rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Full Story
We were just treated to a fake official rate hike, and it was cleverly executed. The recent supposed USFed rate hike was a gigantic fraud, a misdirection, a clever ploy, and an act of extreme desperation. We were told of an official 25 basis point interest rate hike. But a hike of 0.25% is nowhere to be seen. The reality is that the USFed is so strapped, so deeply under siege, so overwhelmed, that it requires urgent help from the USDept Treasury. So they have expanded QE to become Double Barreled Hidden QE to Infinity. Full Story
The point here is, arbitrarily revoking citizenship and forcing people to stay where they are have always been hallmarks of an authoritarian regime. When a government starts these outrageous practices, it’s usually a harbinger of things to come. Unfortunately, these practices are becoming more common in so-called liberal democracies for increasingly trivial offenses. Full Story
The most important question investors should be asking at this point isn’t whether the secular bull market which began in 2009 is over, but whether continued equity market weakness in 2016 will lead to the unthinkable, namely an economic recession. A recession in 2016 has been deemed virtually impossible by most mainstream economists, so much so that all discussion of this possibility has evaporated. And while most U.S. economic data categories are still admittedly strong, the persistent weakness under the surface of the equity market over the last several months demands that the topic be reexamined. Full Story
It’s getting harder and harder for people to rationalize why our ‘modern markets’ act the way they do these days because they appear ‘counterintuitive’ to the naked eye. They go up when they should go down and visa versa. The precious metals markets are undoubtedly the best example of this present overriding condition in that evidence of financial instability and sovereign currency management (debasement) continues to accelerate with no impact on prices. It’s like nothing is wrong. Full Story
How can we summarize the last year in the gold market? First, it was not a good year for the gold bulls (however, gold performed much better than many other commodities, confirming its role as a currency). As one can see in the chart below, the London spot price of the shiny metal declined 9.56 percent from $1172 to $1060. Gold marked its fourth full year in a bear market. Full Story
Unprofitable Wall Street darling, Tesla (TSLA), which requires mountains of new debt at low interest rates to survive, has taken out its trendline. Europe’s “canary in the coalmine” just kicked it. Spanish bank Santander (SAN) is sitting atop a mountain of garbage debt from a housing bubble that DWARFED the US's. The country might even break into multiple fragments! Full Story
Maybe 2016 will be the year when equity bears finally get to celebrate. Although I wouldn’t call an end to the “buy the dip” era quite yet, the current market has a different type of feel and vibe to it. Many people believe – and there is supporting historical evidence – that as January goes for equities, so goes the year. Bulls should hope this axiom doesn’t hold in 2016. The month is still young, but the first week of January ushered in the worst 5-day start to a year in the SPX 500’s history. The last time the market started a year this poorly was 2008, and we know how that turned out. Full Story
Several Republican presidential candidates are floating the idea of returning to some form of a gold standard in the U.S., although none have gone into any great detail. So, how might a modern gold standard work? It’s a question that requires us to do more than just look to the past with an eye toward “restoring,” “bringing back,” or “returning to” gold-backed money. Sound money advocates need to also think creatively about how to adapt hard money principles to the current and future needs of a dynamic and digital-based economy. Full Story
Gold opened the year with very a strong gain, climbing 4.02 percent, as rising sectarian tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran ratcheted up; North Korea announced the testing of its first hydrogen bomb; and twice on separate trading days, Chinese markets fell 7 percent, the maximum amount Chinese authorities allowed them to decline. This sent shock waves through financial markets leading investors to seek out safe haven assets once again. Full Story
The price of silver gained only 9 cents, so the gold-silver ratio moved up sharply to over 79. Another call we have been making is for a rising ratio. So what did happen in silver fundamentals on Thursday? Or indeed the whole week for both metals? Read on for the only true look at the supply and demand of gold and silver… Full Story
Welcome to 2016. Tradition dictates that you spend the first few weeks or so reading forecasts for the coming year. I can say with certainty that most of them will be wrong. A smaller number may hit the target. Unfortunately, no one knows which forecasts will fall into which category. For the last 16 years my first letter of the year has also been a forecast issue, and I will continue to go with that tradition – but with one major caveat. I do not base my forecasts on mathematical models or some finely honed methodology, but on my sense of where the economic world stands today and where I think it might likely be in the near future. Full Story
As noted in previous posts this week – as long as this financial stress and chaos remains in the markets – primarily with China – gold will remain well supported in price. As soon as the market comes to feel that the worst is over in that regard, gold is going to break lower. The question is when might that be? I wish I knew. The truth is not a single one of us know this. We just have to watch events unfold. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 11 January, 2016
The fact is that the amount of cash on the sidelines at any time is simply a function of the preceding amount of monetary inflation. If the money supply has grown then the amount of “cash on the sidelines” will have grown by the same amount. A consequence is that the amount of cash on the sidelines grows almost every year, regardless of whether the stock market rises or falls. For example, the amount of cash on the sidelines in the US was a lot higher just prior to the 2008 market collapse than it was three year’s earlier and the amount of cash on the sidelines will almost certainly be at a new all-time high a year from now irrespective of what happens to the stock market in the meantime. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 11 January, 2016
There continues to be a lot of misinformation on the internet, even on the alternative media. So, I thought I set the record straight. Yes, it’s true…. the facts show that the U.S. peaked in silver production a century ago. That’s correct, 100 years ago. Full Story
Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office, who says a financial crisis is imminent. His largest currency position remains the US dollar, which will likely rally into a bubble which eventually implodes in spectacular fashion. Although not a safe haven, the US dollar seems impervious relative to most global currencies, for the moment. Chairman of SchiffGold.com, Peter Schiff returns to the show with dire warnings of a looming currency crisis. His work indicates that eventually, momentum will return to the gold market, making $100+ days commonplace culminating $5,000 gold. Full Story
Those who have been reading my work for any length of time know I have been adamant we would someday face a "global margin call". I believe this call was issued last week! No matter how you look at the world, whether financially, geopolitically, macro, micro or whatever ...what underlies everything in our world today is "credit". Credit is used to build, wage war, to produce and deliver, to consume or to trade, EVERYTHING runs on credit. As a side note, in order for credit to be extended, the borrower must have some sort of "collateral". This collateral can be physical, financial, or simply "faith", meaning a good credit rating or at least trust by the lender. Full Story
Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn’t even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash – last week was just a “warmup”, the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 10 January, 2016
The Federal Reserve has finally raised their target for the Fed Funds rate. In a unanimous vote members decided to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.25 - 0.50 per cent. It was the first hike since June 2006 when then Fed head Ben ‘helicopter’ Bernanke increased the benchmark rate from 5 to 5.25 percent. Full Story
Well, the expected smash-down at the release of the job numbers never transpired. But, having said that, it wasn’t a good day for either gold or silver—or their respective equities. I’d guess that these rallies that began at the beginning of the week are already over, as it can be safely assumed that their was massive deterioration in the Commercial net short positions in both metals since the Tuesday cut-off, but some of the damage in silver may have been reversed with yesterday’s engineered price decline in that precious metal. Full Story
Volumes have been written on portfolio rebalancing and in spite of that very few people bother to ever rebalance their portfolio. Most people spend more time planning their vacation than they do planning their investments. It really does not have to be that hard. All too often one falls prey to their emotions buying this or that based on a “hot tip” from their brother-in-law. The truth is investing is very boring and requires a great deal of patience. It is difficult to remove all the emotion from the equation. People panic with the herd and end up buying high and selling low unless they have a plan. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 10 January, 2016
After U.S. silver production declined nearly 20% in September (y.o.y), this continued again in October. According to the USGS Silver Mineral Industry Survey, silver production in the U.S. fell to 84.6 metric tons (mt) in October compared to 103 mt during the same month in 2014. Full Story
So, now that you know all of this, are you surprised...or does it even matter to you...that, as I type, the stock market has rallied over 200 points from its opening lows while gold has been beaten back from its highs? It's all just a huge sham and fraud. ALL OF IT. Your "markets", your politics, your patriotic wars and "responsibility to protect" doctrines. It's all garbage. Designed and maintained by your political and financial elite. Full Story
An economic apocalypse upon us. My 2016 economic predictions provide the full explanation as to why 2016 will be the year of the Epocalypse — a word that encompasses the roots “economic, epoch, collapse” and “apocalypse.” I needed a word big enough to describe all that is about to befall the world in 2016. When you see the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out here, I think you’ll recognize that the Epocalypse is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. Full Story
In my daily trip around the latest opinions and analyses of the precious metals markets, there was one phrase that seems to recur again and again. That phrase is “gold is undervalued”. One article I read pronounced on this matter by stating that the gold market was under government control and that the fundamentals of gold supply and demand did not matter at all. Anyone who invests in gold believing this can only be doing it in hope rather than analysis. Full Story
Last time markets were this oversold we saw the SPX rally over 80 points in a few days so I did buy some long positions late Thursday which so far, are not working great. The action is not at all great and does point to a deeper correction but not an end to the current bull market. So, we may be in for a tough year, if you are only trading the long side. I’ll trade long or short and make money whatever happens, unless we see sideways markets which are very hard to make money in but I don’t see that as being a reality in 2016. Full Story
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