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Weekly Archive

By: David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report - 6 August, 2010

It’s kind of ironic, I find, that the very same people who are quickest to scoff when hearing the phrase “This time it’s different” – namely the professional investing class – apparently see nothing to worry about in the idea that the world’s largest debtor can run the world’s largest deficits… and do so at historically low interest rates. Full Story

By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 6 August, 2010

The adventures of trading junior resource stocks are meant for only a select breed. Yet even these risk-craving traders struggle with a cornucopia of emotions when putting their capital to work in this realm. This sector is capable of violent swings in either direction, and it has proven to be quite difficult to navigate on an interim basis. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 6 August, 2010

‘Black Swans’ are Phenomena which are Statistical Outliers – Phenomena ostensibly so improbable that they are not typically be taken into account when determining probabilities, even though, if and when they do occur, their consequences typically have a very high, and often very negative, impact. [All Swans were thought to be White, until a 1697 Dutch Expedition to Australia found Black ones.] Full Story

By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 6 August, 2010

As gold hovers near $1,200 an ounce and pundits speculate about a 'gold bubble', it's important for investors to remember that a mere decade ago the picture was very different. In the year 2000, gold sat at an unimpressive annual average of $279 an ounce - a two-decade low. At that time, most analysts thought gold was finished as a monetary metal. Full Story

By: Brady Willett - 6 August, 2010

Ben Bernanke’s machinations since the financial crisis began are widely celebrated as having saved the financial markets from complete ruin. Question is, was preventing the ruin of an over-leveraged, non-transparent, and bubble-driven financial system really the best path? Full Story

By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 6 August, 2010

Investors and market strategists are excited about the rallies in equities and economically sensitive commodities, but the declines in gold and Treasury yields are likely warning of deflation. Coincidentally, a similar scenario existed in July 2008 when investors embraced equities even though a stock market crash was directly ahead. Full Story

By: Clif Droke - 6 August, 2010

Market technicians sometimes let their imaginations carry them away. Because of the dry, tedious nature of the business, they sometimes exaggerate the importance of a technical signal by drawing to attention to what would otherwise be a non-event. Full Story

By: The Energy Report and John Williams - 6 August, 2010

When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admits to seeing an "unusually uncertain" economy ahead, it's pretty terrifying to imagine what he's really thinking. What John Williams envisions—and he's by no means looking to the far horizon—is a systemic collapse, a hyperinflationary great depression and the cessation of normal commerce. Despite that bleak outlook, however, when the economist and editor of ShadowStats.com sat down for this exclusive Energy Report interview, he also had some good news. Full Story

By: Timothy Major and Tom Wobker - 6 August, 2010

Although the precious metals market is taking a breather, a number of U.S. investors remain fired up with enthusiasm for trading Canadian mining stock warrants. This is not surprising when you consider that these warrants are so loaded with leverage to the market that their returns sometimes rocket up into the 1,000% range. Full Story

By: R. D. Bradshaw - 6 August, 2010

US President Franklin Rosenfeldt/Roosevelt shared with us one of the most profound revelations of all from a US president when he said that if it happens in politics, it was planned that way. Few people have grasped how extraordinary and revealing FDR was in sharing his wisdom with us. And that revelation brings up in this Goldsmiths the backdrop on the present global monetary system and what might lie ahead. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 6 August, 2010

Hossein Askari is a professor of international business and international affairs at George Washington University, and Noureddine Krichene is an economist with a PhD from UCLA, which I mention to establish their credentials, since some bozo from the Federal Reserve created a stir when he said, with a sniff of condescension and smugness, that nobody should comment about economics unless they have a PhD in economics from a “proper” university, because we unwashed huddled masses are “dangerous” and a “threat to society.” Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 6 August, 2010

Chiding the inflationistas here yesterday, we elicited a torrent of informative responses, including the 5000th post to the Rick’s Picks forum (worth a free 30-day subscription to the lucky lady!). We’re going to stick with this provocative topic for now, since we think it’s crucial that readers understand why deflation will be with us for a ruinous while, notwithstanding The Guvvamint’s desperately extravagant but so far ineffectual attempts to resuscitate inflation in the housing sector. Full Story

By: Jake Towne - 5 August, 2010

Government is not the solution; rather, it is causing the problems. The below slides (view at Scribd, backup PDF) highlight the economic situation, updated from a May presentation. I’ve written about the solutions to the unemployment problem, the deficit, Social Security, and the high costs of health care which are linked below. Full Story

By: Marin Katusa, Casey’s Energy Opportunities - 5 August, 2010

It’s no longer 1973, when President Nixon could declare that our status as top energy consumer was “good. That means we are the richest, strongest people in the world.” Today, bragging about winning the energy-eating competition doesn’t gain you any brownie points. Full Story

By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 5 August, 2010

I think the most supportive news that’s come out in recent days has to do with China allowing more banks to import and export gold as well as trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The reality today is that gold is caught without much of a story. Full Story

By: Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. - 5 August, 2010

You surely didn't think that the governing elites would let this economic crisis pass without pushing some cockamamie scheme for control. Well, here is the cloud no bigger than a man's hand, a revival of a 60-year-old idea of a global paper currency to fix what ails us. Full Story

By: Darryl Robert Schoon - 5 August, 2010

The nasty fiscal arithmetic of imperial decline that Harvard professor Niall Ferguson refers to is America’s unsustainable debt. Growing levels of debt according to Ferguson are now about to drive the US, like other great powers before it, over the edge of chaos; an event Ferguson believes will come sooner rather than later. Full Story

By: Peter J. Cooper - 5 August, 2010

Gold bugs will howl. But it is obvious enough that any major stock market correction – which must be looming on the horizon given this incredibly overbought rally now trading on very thin volumes – will bring gold prices tumbling down as in late 2008. Full Story

By: Chris Blasi - 5 August, 2010

The success of the multi-year machinations of the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to manage the fiscal crisis can best be summarized in a single word – and that word is ephemeral - yes, ephemeral! Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 5 August, 2010

Things in the economy are getting more and more stressful, and the company’s revenues are down, precipitating the rumor around here that there are going to be more cuts in staff, and the odds are pretty good that I will be one of those unceremoniously fired since, ever since they fired Carl, I am now the company’s worst employee. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 5 August, 2010

We thought the inflationistas would back off now that global deflation has ravaged just about every asset class save bullion and T-Bonds for the last couple of years. Actually, they’ve been pretty quiet lately, even if there are still a few money-supply nuts who believe not only that inflation is, or will be, a concern, but that the deflationist somehow have the big picture wrong. Full Story

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 4 August, 2010

China's central bank said in a statement it will allow its banks to import and export more gold as part of a program to push forward the development of the country's market in the precious metal. This is part of the on-going effort to further liberalize the gold market broaden gold’s appeal throughout China. China has long been unable to fully explore gold demand. This is another step along that road. Full Story

By: Jim Willie CB - 4 August, 2010

A theme of frequent mention has been the Paradigm Shift in the financial world. It refers more specifically to the global shift away from a USDollar-centric alignment. The major industrialized nations of the world, along with major energy producers, struggle to develop a monetary and commercial system that is not based upon the crippled fraudulent bloated USDollar. Full Story

By: Louis James, Senior Editor, Casey’s International Speculator - 4 August, 2010

In contemplating the possibility of another stock market meltdown, it seems important to me that in spite of the exuberance with which investors rushed back into the market over the last year, the memory of 2008 remains vivid, tempering enthusiasm with caution. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and Brian Mok - 4 August, 2010

Union Securities Analyst Brian Mok gets excited about gold companies with prospects for big-time growth. But then again, who doesn't? In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Brian discusses the gold market at length. Full Story

By: Bix Weir - 4 August, 2010

Spring 1964: A little known high school teacher named Henry Littlefield published an article in the American Quarterly arguing that the novel "The Wonderful Wizard of OZ" was a cleverly disguised satire on the politics of the late 1800's America. He also argued that the Author, Frank Baum, devised the first "truly American Fairy Tale" as a Monetary Allegory on the virtues of a bi-metallic monetary system and the fight against the evil bankers. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 August, 2010

This effort at normality allows gold to perform as a safe haven under both inflation and deflation. It is irrelevant whether it is inflation or debt duress. Gold moves upward to protect the owners of gold as others perceiving the same problems purchase gold as a safe haven. This effort of the last 11 years has effectively over the past 15 months allowed gold to become the world’s premier currency as the dollar wallows in debt. Full Story

By: Andy Sutton - 4 August, 2010

They still don’t get it – or perhaps they do and just won’t admit it. Either way, it doesn’t matter much as the jesters, namely Msrs. Bernanke and Greenspan, continue to chirp their assigned lines, playing good cop/bad cop with the USEconomy. Right now, Bernanke is the good cop, pointing to increasing wages and the likelihood that the consumer will once again step up and rescue us from the grips of the double dip. On the other side of the room is Greenspan, talking about how that double-dip is still possible, although extremely unlikely. Full Story

By: Larry LaBorde - 4 August, 2010

Banking in the United States is undergoing a change. Out of over 8,000 banks in this country the top 4 (Morgan-Chase, Citi, Bank of American and Wells Fargo) control 55% of all banking assets. The top 100 banks control over 75%. The FDIC’s watch list of troubled banks is now over 700 and growing every quarter. If the big four had to mark all their assets to market it is doubtful they would survive as viable banks. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 4 August, 2010

Most of us gold bugs are ready for the explosive blowout top after a long, spectacular parabolic rise in the price of gold, so that we can then move along to Phase 2 of the Terrific Mogambo Retirement Plan (TMRP). Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 August, 2010

Bulls failed a key test yesterday when they were unable to push the Dow above 10719. All it would have taken was a measly 44–point rally, but the blue chip average never even made it into positive territory. What does that mean? Our hunch is that August will be a so-so month at best for the stock market. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 3 August, 2010

Take the current sell-off in gold seriously. Take the Jobs Report seriously. Writing an epistle about the evil banksters isn’t going make you any money. Getting serious on the buy side of the gold market is going to make you a competitor with the banksters for the gold that is turfed by millions of price chasers around the world, aka “The Gold Wiener Patrol”. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 3 August, 2010

It was just a few years ago that the world was realizing that Hubbert's Peak, a forecast set some decades prior, was proving to be incredibly true with oil. While no one expects that oil will ever disappear in its entirety, we know that at the rate it is used, cheap oil may be gone forever. Will gold have a similar fate? Well, one industry insider believes that may be the case. Full Story

By: The Energy Report and Keith Schaefer - 3 August, 2010

Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin Editor and Publisher Keith Schaefer specializes in Canadian oil and gas plays. Despite the languishing gas price, he sees opportunities in some hedged Canadian gas companies and unhedged "wet-gas" producers. If you're not into gas, Keith is big on oil. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Keith will tell you how radial drilling is creating opportunities in heavy oil, too. Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 3 August, 2010

As anticipated, last Friday, which marked options expiry for July, witnessed a down day in stocks, which in fact turned out to be a 90% down day. In a bull market this would not occur, as the trend would be up, so one must conclude Friday’s 90% down day on increasing volume is a negative omen even though it was not re-enforced by follow-through yesterday. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 3 August, 2010

When countries get grouped together for economic or political purposes, an acronym or other shorthand device is soon to follow. OPEC, EU and G7 are a few of the old standards, while G20, PIIGS (European nations with dangerously large sovereign debt burdens), and of course BRICs are newer examples. Full Story

By: Jeff Berwick - 3 August, 2010

So, should we all be talking about a potential double dip? Double dip?? The Dow is down 81% in the last decade and US unemployment is at nearly 22%. More like Double Absolutely-Completely-Devastated! The US, in fact, has just completed its first lost decade and there is no hope on the horizon that anything is going to change anytime soon. Full Story

By: Puru Saxena - 3 August, 2010

Given our grim outlook on inflation, we continue to favour hard assets and the fast-growing developing economies in Asia. If our assessment is correct, our preferred sectors (energy, precious metals and industrials) and our favourite stock markets (China, India and Vietnam) are likely to generate spectacular long-term returns. Full Story

By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 3 August, 2010

The reason we are very bullish on gold's prospects beyond the short-term isn't that we think gold is a screaming bargain based on the way things are today; we are bullish because we don't think that today's gold price comes close to fully discounting the adverse FUTURE effects of government and central bank policies. Full Story

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 3 August, 2010

So why is it highly probable that gold stocks will go higher? Let me digress for a moment. Making big money isn't all that difficult. It doesn't involve making numerous profitable trades or correct investment decisions. Simply put, one needs to find the long-term trends and ride them from their infancy to their apex. Currently, there are three long-term secular trends that still have a ways to go. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 August, 2010

I knew it was going to be “one of those days” when, on the very first fairway, this new guy Bob says that he thought my tee shot had landed over there behind those trees, and how he is surprised to see that my golf ball is now sitting on the fairway, and another twenty yards further towards the hole, too. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 August, 2010

A hundred points here, a hundred points there, and pretty soon you’re talking about a real rally. Yesterday’s 208-point thrust in the Dow didn’t quite qualify as a powerhouse, however, since it failed to exceed a peak “along the wall” of the daily chart. Full Story

By: The Gold Report and Tony Mariano - 2 August, 2010

The ability to separate the science from the promotional claims is among the expertise that Geological Consultant Tony Mariano, PhD, brings to the rare earth elements (REE) table. Tony, who for decades has combined long hours in the lab with even longer field visits to evaluate mineralization in its natural environment, is among the rare ones who can help companies evaluate a deposit for grade, tonnage and the prospects for economic recovery. Full Story

By: Peter Degraaf - 2 August, 2010

Nations rise when, through inventions and technology they become economically prosperous. They grow as they enlarge their borders and increase in influence, through conquests or by trade. They fall, when the growing need to pay for promises made, and the cost of foreign wars, drains the treasury. Full Story

By: Clif Droke - 2 August, 2010

The stock market since the May “flash crash” and early July cycle low has been a trading range affair characterized by alternations between high and low volatility levels, or what pundits have taken to calling “volatile volatility.” As Steven Sears in his Barron’s column of July 26 pointed out, “The back-and-forth action is just the latest reminder that volatile volatility is a central fact of the 2010 market.” After being spoiled by last year’s extremely low volatility market, participants are shell-shocked at the heightened levels of volatility in recent months. Full Story

By: Howard S. Katz - 2 August, 2010

Gold dropped 30 points on Monday-Tuesday of this past week thus breaking out downside from a head and shoulders top. The problem here was that most of the indicators on gold are bullish. Thus the head and shoulders is an anomaly. Technical analysis proceeds on the basis of probabilities. One must weigh the bullish and bearish factors and establish a weight of the evidence. Full Story

By: Toby Connor - 2 August, 2010

I expect, barring some kind a catastrophe, next week should be another good week for the market. The recent minor pullback has worked off the short term overbought conditions and in the process formed a small bull flag. Full Story

By: Roy Martens - 2 August, 2010

Five charts are analyzed. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 August, 2010

The response to Mario Cavolo’s glowing take on China and the global economy was eye-opening, to say the least. It’s not hard to understand why someone who lives and works in China, as Mario does, might believe that the country’s economic prospects are so spectacular as to all but preclude the possibility of a deflationary depression elsewhere in the world. We’re not so sure ourselves and have a few things to say about it below. Full Story

By: radio.GoldSeek.com - 1 August, 2010

1st Hour:
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report.
Spotlight Stock Picks.
Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions.
2nd Hour:
Jim Rogers, JimRogers.com
James Turk, GoldMoney.com Full Story

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 1 August, 2010

The U.S. economy can, at best, be described as in an “L”-shaped recovery. It is anemic, faced with unyieldingly high unemployment and overburdened with debt, but worst of all, the average consumer that has little to no confidence in the economy or housing for the next couple of years. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 1 August, 2010

While we wait, watch and listen, the Fed decides when the banks will be given the word to start lending to get the domestic economy back to neutral. Action is needed quickly because the world economy is quickly deteriorating, and their recovery is simply not happening, as the administration admits to a fiscal deficit of $1.4 trillion. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 1 August, 2010

If you want to believe the Financial Times, the 346 tonnes of gold swaps recently undertaken surreptitiously by the Bank for International Settlements were a matter of the BIS' requiring three of the world's biggest banks to pledge gold as collateral against U.S. dollar deposits placed with them by the BIS so the BIS could earn a little interest. According to the FT, the banks also needed to raise cash and so were glad to obtain it by collateralizing the BIS' deposits with gold. Full Story

By: Adrian Douglas - 1 August, 2010

Lawyers always tell their clients to shut up and not speak to the press because the more they say without proper legal consultation, the more likely they are to incriminate themselves. One has to wonder why lawyers at the BIS didn't offer similar advice to the spokespeople at the BIS, because they have opened their mouths and inserted both feet. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 1 August, 2010

We don`t normally mention Astrology on www.clivemaund.com because although Clive Maund has a good working knowledge of Astrology and has used it for many years in his personal life and found it most helpful, applying it to markets is another ball game and requires a special talent. So we have stuck to Technical Analysis and left applying Astrology to the markets to others. However, the planetary alignment that is set to reach maximum intensity during the next two weeks is of such immense power and has such major implications, that we would be foolish to ignore it. Full Story

By: Przemyslaw Radomski - 1 August, 2010

In the last two essays we have emphasized the influence that the dollar and main stock indices might have on the precious metals and we have summarized our last essay by stating that we are likely to see a short-term bounce to the upside (…) perhaps very soon. Since this is what happened we would like to let you know where - in our opinion - gold is likely to go next. Full Story

By: Lorimer Wilson and Jeff Nielson - 1 August, 2010

The collapse of the U.S. economy is a certainty - only the manner in which it will happen has yet to be determined. It is just a matter of time before the global derivatives bubble will produce the same result that has occurred to every other currency not backed by gold throughout history - those currencies, our ‘money’, will become worthless. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 1 August, 2010

Those of us who have taken young children on long road trips to somewhere they wanted to go are familiar with the plaintive question "Are We There Yet?" As a nation and indeed the developed world, it is not unreasonable to be asking "Are We There Yet?" about the road to recovery. The NBER, those self-appointed economists who are the official keepers of the score sheet of recessions and recoveries, have yet to tell us we are out of recession. Yet the economy is growing. Kind of. Full Story

By: Gene Arensberg - 1 August, 2010

COT report shows large commercial traders piling on new net short positions modestly for gold, still reducing LCNS for silver. Open interest for gold plunges late week. Gold -2.6% and the gold LCNS +5.5%. Silver -0.2% and the silver LCNS -2.5%. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 August, 2010

John Stepek at MoneyWeek.com, talking about the “European bank stress tests” that were “a whitewash, of course” said that it kind of reminded him of “one of Gordon Brown’s budgets.” Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 1 August, 2010

I need a vacation like I need my morning coffee. The never ending barrage of lies, fudged numbers and attacks on gold are wearing me down. Along with the long hours. This weeks letter will be shorter than normal, at least now at the outset that’s the plan! Full Story




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