Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with his latest market insights. Inflation is a chief concern at EuroPac, just as the economy is headed back to a 2008 style Great Recession, which could result in Stagflation. Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with upbeat commentary on the PM's sector. The shifting yield curve (spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury Notes), suggests that a liquidity crisis could unfold similar to the Great Recession. Full Story
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen. Full Story
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with upbeat commentary on the PM's sector. The shifting yield curve (spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury Notes), suggests that a liquidity crisis could unfold similar to the Great Recession. 90% of recessions (Michael Pento, 2018) occurred after the yield curve inverted. If the current price hike trend continues with two more anticipated by the FOMC this year, the inversion could portend trouble for the financial markets. Full Story
The HUI along with most of the other PM stock indexes are at a critical point right here and now. Below is a combo chart we’ve following which has the UUP (The US Dollar Index ETF) on top and the HUI on the bottom. The UUP is building out a potential morphing bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern which would most likely give the PM complex some headwind if the price action breaks out top side. On the other hand if the rising wedge breaks down then the PM complex should have a strong tailwind at their backs. If the HUI can breakout above the top rail of its descending triangle that would be very bullish for the PM complex. As you can see the HUI and the UUP are trading at a critical inflection point right here. Full Story
There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures. Full Story
June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market? Full Story
Given the impressive reversal in gold last Monday, which appeared to occur during the Asian and European trading sessions as opposed to the Crimex pit session, it looks like the precious metals are adhering to the well-broadcasted seasonality trade that has been fraught with random, rather than dependable, trading results, especially in the last four years. 2014 and 2016 had poor second-half performances, while 2015 and 2017 were marginally positive. What isreliable is that gold purchases in July have a greater chance for a successful trading outcome than any other month of the year, assuming, of course, that you took profits when gold popped in one of the following five months. Full Story
First and foremost, Amigo #1, per our goofy and oh so helpful 3 Amigos theme would need to come into place. That would be for the stock market to decline appreciably in relation to gold. As you can see, that is not yet the case. The monthly chart shows a gap up in SPX/Gold, and a good pop in gold and some under performance by the stock market could fill the June gap (up). But that alone would not change the trend of this chart, just as the market disturbances earlier this year did not. Full Story
The top 10 central banks with the largest gold reserves have remained mostly unchanged for the last few years. The United States holds the number one spot with over 8,000 tonnes of gold in its vaults – nearly as much as the next three countries combined. For six consecutive years the Russian Central Bank has been the largest purchaser of gold, increasing its holdings by 224 tonnes in 2017 and overtaking China to hold the fifth spot, according to the GFMS Gold Survey. Full Story
Despite its lack of bullish fundamentals and the poor price action, Gold is now technically oversold and has reached strong support with sentiment approaching potentially extreme levels. The conditions are in place for a rally. That being said, bearish sentiment by itself is not enough to push Gold beyond a relief rally. Full Story
For a year and a half I’ve been writing about the retail apocalypse that is going to add to US financial woes. This is not a problem created by economic collapse but a problem that I have said will greatly contribute to economic collapse and that is so massive and widespread that it assures some level of economic decline all on its own. As everyone knows, the problem is largely created by a change in shopping paradigms (mostly due to Amazon) that is shuttering brick and mortar stores as people shop online. Full Story
In last week’s article, my charts showed that I expected a corrective rally into the zones we are now pushing against. As always, I marked key resistance with a box and price has entered those areas. These zones are $6724-$7045 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $461-$489 in ethereum (ETH-USD). Full Story
In summary, this latest downturn in COMEX gold was not unexpected. What was mostly unexpected was the severity of the decline. However, all selloffs and rallies eventually come to an end, and this current trend will soon reverse, too. Once it does, COMEX gold is positioned for the summer rally that we've projected since late last year. This rally should take price to and through the old resistance near $1360, extending all the way to $1395 before it fades and consolidates. This would be consistent with what we saw in COMEX gold during the summer of 2017, and we can now expect the same type of performance in the summer of 2018. Full Story
Beginning in early Spring, gold and silver faced two serious headwinds: Seasonality – that is, the annual decline in bullion demand from China and India once wedding season ends – and the internal structure of the futures markets, where the big players in gold had lined up in ways that historically point towards weak prices for a while. Full Story
I’ve predicted that GDX will make an all-time high long before bullion does, and that’s because the world is entering a period of general inflation. Precious metal stock enthusiasts need to buy in July, so they can watch their gold and silver stocks fly! Full Story
Successful investors have a philosophy, usually carefully cultivated, that they rely upon in their investment decisions no matter what happens in the markets in the short-run. Successful investors are rarely shaken by short-term events and, rarer still, guilty of short-term thinking. USAGOLD has always nurtured the belief that gold should not be purchased principally as a speculative investment, but more as an asset accumulated for long-term asset preservation in the form of coins and bullion. That, in fact, is a viewpoint it shares with the bulk of its clientele. Thus, when we have a sell-off like what occurred this past month, experienced gold investors usually view those events as either buying opportunities or as part of a normal market process. Full Story
The world is standing at the edge of the financial abyss while most investors are entirely in the dark. However, specific indicators suggest the market is one giant RED BLINKING LIGHT. One of these indicators is the amount of margin debt held by investors. What is quite surprising about the level of investor margin debt is that it has hit a new record high even though the market has sold off 2,500 points from its peak in February. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on sell signals. The cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
July 2nd is usually optimistic because it is the exact middle of the year. The second half of the year starts today, and hope springs eternal. Typically, the first half of July sparks a brief summer glow, a rally that gives some lift to the market for 1-3 weeks. The start of this year was the worst for global stock markets since the Great Recession, and the start of the second half of the year appeared not much better at first. Full Story
GoldCore's daily blog today reprints analysis by Jim Rickards in his latest Gold Speculator letter arguing that the great "global monetary reset" often speculated about is already underway, as indicated by the recent close correlation between the gold price and the International Monetary Fund's super-currency, the Special Drawing Right, which began shortly after the IMF made the Chinese yuan a component of the basket of currencies composing the SDR. Since then, Rickards writes, the gold price, ordinarily volatile, has exhibited little volatility as priced in SDRs. Full Story
The bear market in gold has been surprising for many analysts. They ask: Why the hell gold, which is a safe-haven asset, is failing amid unstable geopolitical environment? But the political environment has recently improved on several fronts. Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea diminished, as well as between the U.S. and Russia – Trump is going to meet Putin in July. Full Story
Housing is dropping and it’s demand-driven, not supply-driven – All three housing market reports released two weeks ago showed industry deterioration. The homebuilder “sentiment” index for May, now known as the “housing market” index for some reason, showed its 4th decline since the index peaked in December. The index level of 68 in May was 10 points below Wall Street’s expectation. The index is a “soft data” report, measuring primarily homebuilder assessment of “foot traffic” (showings) and builder sentiment. Full Story
Stop buying Iranian oil or face the music. That’s the message the U.S. government shared with the world last week, giving importers until November 4 to cut their consumption of Iran’s crude to zero—or expect sanctions. The threat comes a month after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era nuclear deal. Full Story
For the past few weeks, I’ve been intensely focused on what I believe to be a double cross in COMEX gold futures by JPMorgan of other trading entities, particularly other commercial participants. I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred. After all, a double cross always includes the element of surprise and this one promises to be a doozy. Full Story
President Trump will soon nominate his second Supreme Court justice. The first, Neil Gorsuch, has so perfectly replaced the late Antonin Scalia that it’s safe to assume retiring justice Anthony Kennedy’s successor will be in the same mold – which is to say formidable and unapologetically conservative. The result will be a solid conservative majority that’s more definite and less flexible on the issues where Kennedy was a swing vote. Full Story
President Trump is winning on a number of fronts, and American conservatives are feeling better about their prospects than they have for a very long time. Trump supporters are cheering an imminent shift in the balance at the Supreme Court. The President is expected to nominate a justice who respects the constitution to replace the retiring Anthony Kennedy. This legacy promises to endure for decades. Full Story
After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, down just 0.27 percent on a positive recommendation by Morgan Stanley based on deficit market supply. Gold traders and analysts became bearish this week according to the Bloomberg weekly survey as gold fell to its lowest level so far this year. Full Story
If the comparison to the 1980s pattern is justified, and the current pattern continues in a similar fashion, then silver will go into a long bear market. If the current fractals diverge from the 1983 fractals by going higher than the point 5 price-level, then the bull market will resume with vigour. In the short-term for a bull market scenario, the price needs to clear the top line of the flag or pennant-type pattern that has formed since point 5, and avoid dropping below the bottom red line. Full Story
It may seem like common sense, that there’s a perpetual conflict between the elites and the people. However, the people generally want the status quo. Change is scary. The present may have problems, but most prefer the devil they know to the devil they don’t. Even those who criticize the system may be satisfied with their comfortable opposition role (replete with salary and tenure or cushy think tank job). Full Story
With the first half of 2018 now drawn to a close, much of the financial medias’ headlines and commentary relating to the gold market has been focusing on the fact that the US dollar gold price has moved lower year-to-date. Specifically, from a US dollar price of $1302.50 at close on 31 December 2017, the price of gold in US dollar terms has slipped by approximately 3.8% over the last six months to around $1252.50, a drop of US $50. Full Story
Ever since breaking below the 30-week moving average in late 2016 gold and gold stocks have been in a sideways trading range unable to resume their uptrend. Gold and gold stocks have had three things working against them during this time frame: weak commodity markets, strong stock markets, and digesting gains from 2016. Full Story
Titan of Wall Street, Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, "Professor of TA," and co-creator of the (CTA) designation, returns. "Be careful, be selective ... keep close stops on most US shares." Head of The Morgan Report, David Morgan rejoins the show with comments on the PMs sector noting that gold remains a "free lunch" diversification asset. "The most negatively correlated asset to the US stock market is gold." Full Story
Before I go into further detail on the current conditions of the PM market, here's a recent personal experience that underscores how few people have any real familiarity with gold and silver as an asset class, let alone own any (beyond, perhaps, a bit of jewelry). A good friend moved and needed help transporting some bullion from his old town to his new one. Most of it was silver, several thousand ounces worth. Full Story
In describing the global debt train wreck these last few weeks, I’ve discovered a common problem. Many of us define “debt” way too narrowly. A debt occurs when you receive something now in exchange for a promise to give something back later. It doesn’t have to be cash. If you borrow your neighbor’s lawn mower and promise to return it next Tuesday, that’s a kind of debt. You receive something (use of the lawn mower) and agree to repayment terms – in this case, your promise to return it on time and in working order. Full Story
Market analyst and former fund manager David Brady, writing again at Sprott Money, observes today that, in devaluing the yuan against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks to offset rising U.S. tariffs, China also appears to be pegging the yuan to a gold price of around 8,200 yuan per ounce. Full Story
One of the things giving “data-driven” central banks wiggle room on their pledge to tighten monetary policy is the fact there are several definitions of inflation. In the US the thing most people think of as inflation is the consumer price index, or CPI, which is now running comfortably above the Fed’s target. But the Fed prefers the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which tends to paint a less inflationary picture. And within the PCE universe, core PCE, which strips out energy and food, is the data series that actually motivates Fed action. Full Story
As the world continues to burn energy like there is no tomorrow, global oil and gas discoveries fell to another low in 2017. And to make matters worse, world oil investment has dropped 45% from its peak in 2014. If the world oil industry doesn’t increase its capital expenditures significantly, we are going to hit the Energy Cliff much sooner than later. Full Story
Silver Guru David Morgan, freshly back from G. Edward Griffin’s Red Pill Expo in Spokane WA, briefs us on his most impactful takeaways from this leading edge and speaker-packed conference. Morgan also tackles multiple questions submitted by viewers to give us the insight of his connections and experience into where gold, silver, our financial lives and freedom are headed next. – Not to be missed! Full Story
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