By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 6 June, 2008
-By the charts ye shall know them…a tough act to follow… -The petroleum engineer versus the bond trader…will the crown of creation be mean-reverting… -Is humanity exempt from bubble laws…splashing around in every day low prices…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 6 June, 2008
My guess is that currency traders will ultimately see this as an act of desperation. When the dollar keeps falling a chorus will swell to demand that the Fed put teeth in its new policy. If Bernanke does nothing the world will finally see a naked emperor and the dollar’s decline will turn into a rout. If, on the other hand, the Fed raises rates to defend the dollar, and only a short term bounce results, then all remaining confidence in the Fed’s ability to support the dollar will evaporate as well. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 6 June, 2008
If you believe that oil and other commodity prices are going higher, you should cheer for a continuance of Ben Bernanke as head of the Fed who will be more than happy to assist us with massive amounts of liquidity, interest rates below the rate of inflation and of course giving us the resultant falling US Dollar. On the other hand if we get wind that a Paul Volker clone is about to take over the Fed, oil (and gold) bulls should run not walk to the exits. But oil in a bubble? No. It is the US Dollar in a “de-bubble”. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 6 June, 2008
Without a doubt, crude oil is the most important commodity on our planet. Hypothetically if it vanished overnight, our entire modern world would collapse. No goods could move without the oil-derived transportation fuels, so virtually all trade would implode. Unlike nearly every other major commodity, there is just no economically-viable substitute for oil. Full Story
Opportunities should knock in the Equities, Gold, Silver & Crude Oil Markets over the next couple of months. Key indicators point to more Major Moves in these Sectors in June and July, 2008. Thus we address the question: Do the shorts or the longs stand to profit? Full Story
It is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that in the world of central bankers there is only one credibility champ. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke warned about the price pressures caused by a weak dollar and emphasized inflation concerns in a speech on Wednesday, sparking a dollar rally and many pats on the back. Full Story
INVESTMENT BANKERS have a lot to answer in summer 2008. Not least letting idiot ideas about government, markets and your liberty run amok during this, a US election year. Full Story
In a report, dated May 13, 2008, CFTC staff allegedly “investigated” the functioning of the silver futures market. Their conclusion was that it is functioning properly. Unfortunately, the investigation was woefully flawed. Staff failed to inquire into the most basic issues. They didn’t ask for warehouse receipts, didn’t inspect alleged warehouses, didn’t count the bars of silver, and, in fact, didn’t do any accounting at all, with respect to the alleged silver that is supposed to cover derivative dealer futures contracts. Full Story
One of the clearest signs that the bottom is complete will be the precious metal mining equities refusing to move down further in spite of the fact the metals themselves may continue to find lower prices. In other words, I fully expect to see the mining stocks form a bottom before the metals themselves. Full Story
Standard & Poor announced in late May it has cut or might cut debt ratings on $34 billion of securities tied to Alt-A mortgages, whose type issued in 2007 have a default rate to 6.64% for 90 days late as of end April. Massive S&P downgrades might soon force Wall Street firms to move up to $5000 billion of assets from off-balance sheet locations back onto their books. The bank sector has so far seen very little in bank failures, compared to past cycles. Full Story
By: John Browne, Euro Pacific Capital - Senior Market Advisor - 6 June, 2008
The Fed Chairman sought to reassure the new graduates, and the nation at large, that the current economic situation is much rosier than the one presented to his graduating class more than 30 years ago. Among the factors that he listed that will prevent a replay of the 70’s is the more sophisticated and positive influence of the Fed itself. Apparently, self doubt is not one of his burdens. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 6 June, 2008
I'm barricaded in my house; there are a zillion 'Trespassers will be shot!' signs all over the yard; and I am buying gold and silver with every dime I can steal from my wife's purse or the kids' piggy banks. Full Story
A few more days like yesterday and you can look for me in my hula skirt in Times Square next winter. I’d promised to dance the hula if the Dow failed to plummet exactly 360 points to a Hidden Pivot target, and soon. My bearishness was based on the fact that stocks did not seem to be getting much lift from falling oil prices. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 5 June, 2008
I've been writing a lot of articles lately on the supply shortage of silver from various mints and coin dealers, but I wanted to take a step back from focusing on that specific issue, and present an overview of the major fundamantals again. Full Story
The reality is that the present situation is very bullish indeed. The downtrend reaction has clearly ended as our chart shows - it has run its course and fulfilled its purpose of unwinding the excesses of the previous uptrend. Having broken out from the downtrend the price has since reacted back into a zone of strong support just above its still 200-day moving average. Full Story
I find it rather fascinating to listen to market commentators try to create a “Dollar” event, that simply isn’t occurring. If you listen to CNBC as I do, I would like to know how gains or losses of 30 points in the Dollar are breakouts. They aren’t. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 5 June, 2008
-What has really changed?…importing inflation…hoping to prove Friedman wrong… -Can the U.S. central bank really begin fighting inflation in a serious way? Ah, dear reader - there's a cruel twist to this story… -The cure for high prices is high prices…and so the global economy lurches forward…and more! Full Story
Thirty-five years ago gold, symbol of permanence, was chased out from the Monetary Garden of Eden, replaced by the floating irredeemable dollar as the pillar of the international monetary system. That’s right: a floating pillar. The gold demonetization exercise was a farce. It was designed as a fig leaf to cover up the ugly default of the U.S. government on its gold-redeemable sight obligations to foreigners. Full Story
By: Roy Martens, Resource Fortunes LLC - 5 June, 2008
When paper money continues to lose value, eventually people will turn to the backbone of the old monetary system, Gold and Silver. The higher inflation runs, the more interested people will become in owning a bit of precious metals. Full Story
Ever since the Berlin Wall came down back in 1989 we have seen the very things we protested against so vigorously with regards to Russia come to pass in the U.S. without so much as a peep. If we do not now have a centrally planned economy and stock market then I do not know what else you would call it. Full Story
The skyrocketing energy market has everyone craning their necks trying to figure where the top’s going to be. But the folks over at Casey Research aren’t concerned so much with where the top is … they want to know how best to make a profit from it now. Here, David Galland explains one of the main reasons for the current price gains… and how you might make it all work for you. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 5 June, 2008
But that was not the only thing that was causing mayhem with the Mogambo Economic Alarm System (MEAS), as the Federal Reserve itself sold off another $11 billion of its government debt last week! Yikes! Full Story
The 12032 target shown in the Dow chart below is what Rick’s Picks calls a “hula number.” So confident are we that this Hidden Pivot support will be reached, and soon, that if it is not, we’ll don a grass skirt and dance the hula in Times Square in the middle of February. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 4 June, 2008
Has anyone forgotten the national debt? And I don’t mean the yearly imbalance that merely makes up a fraction of the whole. We seem to discount this theme quite easily most of the time. Part of the reason for this is that we continue to add sand to a sand castle that is already too high and has begun to be buffeted by the waves. Full Story
Ben Bernanke's speech in Barcelona this week hardly marks a new strong Dollar policy. So why all the fuss about "lines in the sand" and a shock 0.25% rate-hike -- maybe -- this fall...? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 4 June, 2008
-The trouble with getting older…Big Ben expresses himself… -Globalization is no longer a force for good - but a force for evil…the Bear Stearns domino effect… -End of the road for Hilary…a new hotline service - made just for central bankers…and more! Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 June, 2008
As we discussed in the last issue there are a number of ideas about to stop investment speculation in commodities, particularly in energy, grains and beans. We believe it is impractical to ban speculation because funds would move to other commodity exchanges and legislation would result in currency controls and the end of free trade and globalization. It would in the long run be inefficient and counterproductive. Full Story
The third phase of the “mortgage meltdown” or “real estate bubble” or “credit crunch”, or whatever you prefer to think of it is, will be nothing short of a re-ordering of the financial universe. We will one day (hopefully) look back on this time and shake our heads in awe at the depression-era hardships many are on the verge of suffering. Full Story
The law is clear that the silver coins must be supplied to the US public in "quantities sufficient to meet public demand" EVEN IF it means the US Mint drives up the price of silver bullion on the open market in order to obtain the silver needed to produce the US Silver Eagles. Full Story
Now that the financial system has been bailed out, it remains for the beleaguered consumer to be rescued from the doldrums he currently faces. When will the consumer finally be freed from the torment that is so prevalent out there? It shouldn’t surprise you that the answer will come from today’s most talked about culprit: the price of oil. Full Story
As is readily apparent, the Gold market had been living this past year in those rare best of times. The Federal Reserve was on a determined course to lower interest rates. That encouraged selling of the U.S. dollar, pushing it down in value. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 4 June, 2008
You invested $100 in 2002 buying power to get back, after five years, $76 in 2002 buying power! Hahaha! Your 'fabulous' investment made a paper gain, but produced a real, inflation-adjusted loss of 25% of your money! Hahaha! Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 3 June, 2008
-Let's begin at the beginning, shall we?…as the egg goes, so goes the chicken… -A game of consumer product mousetrap…desperate times for the airline industry and the manufacturing sector… -Is this a rerun of the 1970's? Don't pull out the shag carpeting and the disco ball just yet…and more! Full Story
If there ever was an overused word in the current financial world, it has to be the word "bubble." It seems that everything that moves sharply up in price is now said to be in a bubble. Recently, I have read, and heard, more commentary on what item may be in a bubble than at any point in my lifetime. I’m sure you have as well. Full Story
The first conference hosted by the Mises Institute was on the gold standard. How well I can recall the names we were called in Washington, DC. Reactionaries, Neanderthals, irrelevant to the modern debate, worshippers of a barbarous relic, throwbacks, pipe dreamers, and the rest: all designed to make us all shut up about the most important issue in modern political life. Full Story
I've had a minor obsession with Detroit for the past year or so, ever since I learned that one could purchase a single family home there for $5,000 or less. In the world of sky high housing prices in my adopted hometown of Boston, $5,000 wouldn't be enough for even a down payment on a tiny condo. In my neighborhood, converted duplex units start at $350,000. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 3 June, 2008
I would like to remind my readers of the monumental sea change developing in the silver market this year as the silver shortage continues as investors turned into buyers instead of sellers in 2008 when gold topped $1000/oz. and silver topped $20/oz. and the precious metals begun to capture the attention of the masses. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 3 June, 2008
There's a big difference between a stock market that's rising in real (purchasing power) terms and one that's only rising due to currency depreciation. The reason is that a smart person invests to obtain more purchasing power, not more money. To put it another way, the amount of money you have is meaningless; what matters is the amount of purchasing power you have. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 3 June, 2008
Apparently, he mistook the look of sheer, paralyzing horror on my face at this revelation of such a massive expansion of the money supply (because it will lead directly to inflation in consumer prices), to be mere confusion on my part. Full Story
WWe had projected a moderate rally as the week began, based solely on subtly bullish signs that were noticeable in the S&P’s intraday charts. Alas, it was not to be, and the mini-S&P futures were unable, even, to push above Friday’s relatively subdued highs. Granted, the big news of the day was not exactly upbeat, since it concerned rating cuts for Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley by the newly religious Standard & Poor’s. Full Story
By: Gary Franchi, Republic Magazine - 2 June, 2008
A new video featuring Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, and Jerry Nelson, Corporate Communications for the Federal Reserve with Gary Franchi, Managing Editor of Republic Magazine. Full Story
The historical record increase in crude oil prices, which peaked last Tuesday, the 22nd of May, at $135.09 per barrel for the July contract, has opened the door to all sorts of debate as to what is actually driving prices. Free market enthusiasts consistently justify rising prices by showing the correlation to either a decrease in supply, or an increase in demand. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 2 June, 2008
-We aren't scared of the peaks - what we are nervous about are the valleys…all the Fed's hard work can be undone by a single day of trading… -The global oil crunch…consumer confidence is out of gas as well - thank goodness for those rebate checks… -The anniversary of the "Esperanto Money"…in central banking, the consequence of inertia and inactivity is almost always salutary…and more! Full Story
The next shoe to drop for the financials, and the larger credit crisis, will be the market’s acceptance that mortgage related write-downs are nowhere near complete or close to where they are going, where presently in extreme bubble locales like California, much of the market has been halved, at a minimum. Full Story
The Bradford and Bingley, Britain's biggest buy to let mortgage lender is expected to announce another profits warning later today as its Chief Executive abandoned the sinking ship ahead of a £300 million originally heavily discounted rights issue at 82p, which given Friday's close of 86p and today's expected price slump looks increasingly vulnerable. Full Story
Silver has been thoroughly de-monetized. The best way to observe this phenomenon is by looking at the above ground stock of silver. Many words have been written on this subject over the last ten years by Ted Butler and others. Let me simply state that that there is very little above ground silver left in the world, perhaps less than 1% of what there used to be. Full Story
By: Boris Sobolev, Resource Stock Guide - 2 June, 2008
Despite increasing noise in the main press about the rallying US stock market indices and a meaningless debate about the so-called “oil bubble,” the most important event in May was arguably a breakdown in the prices of bonds along the entire maturity spectrum. Full Story
By: radio.GoldSeek.com - The Gold and Silver Review - 1 June, 2008
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: Lou Dobbs Peter Spina Harry S. Dent Jr. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 1 June, 2008
Since 1 ounce rounds, 10 ounce bars, and 100 ounce bars are getting very hard to find, and a 6-8 week delay is unrealistically unacceptable, some of you may be considering buying 90% Silver, which are more available in places these days, especially, I hear, from www.fidelitrade.com. So, I figured that some of my readers would like my experienced opinion on acquiring this kind of silver product. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 1 June, 2008
Everything the cartel does is geared into keeping both professional and private investors out of precious metals. The so-called "wall of worry" which any given market is said to climb, is nothing more than a false, fraudulent front of disinformation which is created by elitist insiders on Wall Street, in our government and in corporate America, in order to scare people out of any market from which the elitists wish to profit. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 1 June, 2008
Last week I wrote that we could see a drop in the price of oil as speculators seemed to be storing oil in very large tankers and "slow steaming" them to port in a bet that prices would rise. When everyone is on the same side of the trade, the time is right for a reversal. This is especially true when there is a large potential supply sitting on the sidelines. Full Story
Last week’s suffocating tedium on Wall Street may have seemed like prelude to yet another boring and eventless summer, but we all know better. There are too many stalking monsters out there for the next three months to pass quietly. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 1 June, 2008
Monetary policy is so loose that real interest rates (the nominal interest rate less the rate of inflation) are less than zero, and they think it is 'worrying'? Hahahaha! Talk about British reserve and understatement! Hahahaha! Wow! Full Story
I certainly didn’t expect such a mauling this past week. I have included longer term three year charts in the Metals Review section so we can more easily keep the big picture in sight. This is nothing more than a slight blip and as you will see the long term charts are extremely healthy. Full Story
Gold had a tough week, falling over 4%. The weekly chart of GLD below shows more downside is yet likely. An intermediate term bottom does not appear to have yet been made. There could be a head & shoulders top formation about to take hold, which would cause more than the first horizontal support line to be tested – IF – such occurs. Full Story
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