There is no logical reason for this, as my upbringing was about as “middle of the middle” as it could be. However, all the stories, movies, and lectures that have stood with me throughout my life have been those where the HEART was the significant theme. Where the underrated, or unexpected, or “underdog”, rose above adversity to win! To me the overall theme is that heart is greater than intelligence, training, coaching, and any other metric that goes through the human psyche. Full Story
Nearly two months ago I published a video in which I discussed conventional CoT analysis and the mistake many investors might make assuming Gold and gold stocks would undergo a big correction. The fact is a bull market that follows a nasty bear usually stays very overbought throughout its first year and therefore sentiment indicators remain in bullish territory. As a result of the primary trend change, conventional CoT analysis fails and requires an adjustment. Today we look at the Gold and Silver CoT’s while harping on a few of the mistakes people are making. Full Story
For the past 50 or so years, the quickest way for a sharp young sociopath to get rich has been to join an investment bank or hedge fund. The former were riding a “regulatory capture” gravy train that became ever-more-lucrative as new government agencies morphed into subsidiaries of Wall Street. Hedge funds, meanwhile, were surfing the wave of easy money that inevitably results from putting banks in charge of interest rates and government spending. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 6 May, 2016
The gold-mining stocks have skyrocketed this year, radically outperforming every other sector. Smart contrarians who bought them low late last year and in January have seen their capital doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled! But such blistering gains raise the ominous specter of crippling overboughtness, conditions preceding major toppings. Have gold stocks come too far too fast to continue their epic run? Full Story
In the fifth century BC, Greek dramatist Aeschylus said, “In war, truth is the first casualty.” Quite so. Whenever national leaders decide to go on the warpath for the sake of their own ambition or self-aggrandizement, it’s the citizenry that will pay the bloody price for their aspirations. Since war is rarely desired by the citizenry, it has to be sold to them. Some form of deception, exaggeration or outright lies must be put forward to con the populace into getting on board with the idea. Full Story
The 1929 Dow crash marked the start of the infamous Great Depression. We currently have a repeat of the pattern that led to that great crash in 1929. This pattern is basically a huge stock market rally (after a period of stagnation) that is driven by a huge expansion of the money supply (or credit expansion). Full Story
This London Gold Market infographic guides you through the secretive OTC wholesale gold market in London. The London Gold Market is the largest gold market in the world and the volumes traded are staggering. The London Market serves as a price discovery market for the worldwide gold spot price and is home to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Full Story
Perhaps the Greatest Positive about “The Cloud” is that it is a Great Marketing Slogan. But like Most Marketing Tools, “The Cloud” as a Marketing Tool is a Fad, a passing Fancy/a Fancy Name for a Public Server hosting Multiple Clients. Already, we are seeing “Private Clouds” promoted — de facto a Return to having Servers under the greater Control of Single users, as in Days gone by. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives showcases his investing methods that he's honed over forty years in the markets. His mentor Bob Farrell guided Arch during his tenure at Merrill Lynch. Bob Farrell's investing rules are available online: 10 rules of technical investing success. For the first time in 5 years, gold is making higher highs and higher lows, a solid sign of recovery. Full Story
Respectfully, Mr. Armstrong misses one MAJOR point: The Fed did not create "cash," but rather made more debt available through the QE process. And, it is not that people are hoarding their cash, as that is a different issue, and has nothing to do with QE. There was NEVER any "cash" created by QE. EVER. Not one dollar. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 6 May, 2016
That’s correct. Going by the historic Dow Jones-Silver ratio, it points to $300 silver. This may seem outlandish or a play on hype, but it isn’t. While many precious metals analysts have forecasted high three-digit silver prices, I didn’t pay much attention to them. However, after I looked over all the data, $300 silver is not a crazy figure at all. Full Story
The specter of government forcefully confiscating gold is still roaming around out there. That nagging prospect dampens many buying decisions, unfortunate at a time when gold, and especially silver, are near historically bargain basement prices when measured in fiat currency. Buy low, sell high only works for those who buy low. Somewhere in everyone's buying decision is rebellion against government lunacy. So, what's the plan if government outlaws that defiance? Full Story
By: Arkadiusz Sieron, Sunshine Profits - 6 May, 2016
To sum up, gold may be leased, or lent and borrowed, just like any other currency. Some analysts argue that gold leasing artificially suppresses the gold prices. However, in fact the changes in the price of gold drive the gold leasing market, not the other way around. In the 1990s, the gold carry trade was very profitable, as the gold prices were decreasing (only then borrowers could repay the loan with gold that had dropped in price). And the gold mining industry expected the ever-falling prices, so it was shorting gold heavily. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 5 May, 2016
On a lengthy interview on CNBC this morning, Donald Trump, the now presumptive Republican nominee, looked back on his business history to lay the groundwork to what he would do as President. He came as close as any major presidential contender to saying that America's formula for economic recovery might involve repaying our creditors less than what we owe. This is a major development that should be rewriting the playbook on Wall Street and call into question the risk-free nature of U.S. Treasuries. Full Story
Many analysts are already making comparisons between now and 2007, when commodities skyrocketed in an unprecedented bull market that ended in September 2011 with gold hitting its all-time high of $1,900 an ounce. Now, Paradigm Capital analysts observe that “a new upcycle has begun in the gold sector,” estimating that “a ‘standard’ upcycle would take us to $1,800 an ounce over the next three to four years.” Another analyst sees it climbing to $3,000. Full Story
Gold's gain year-to-date is impressive - not to say exceptional - and gold bugs will heave a sigh of relief that it has behaved as it should in the face of what is clearly a vulnerable, even fragile macroeconomic outlook. However 2014 and 2015 saw similar rallies before momentum fade set in after Q1 in both years and hence not surprisingly confidence remains light, particularly in view of the size able 45% correction since 2011. 2016 is different. Full Story
In January 2016, the crisis entered its final stage. The time of the vulture is here, when the vulture feeds on the blind ignorance and denial of the ostrich.
The gold bullion aficionado prefers real money over currency, which carries a negative interest rate. The precious metals will remain essential core holdings for every investment portfolio. He recommends that investors follow the steps he's taking to insure his personal portfolio, by increasing their allocation of gold and PMs shares. The perma-bull is less sanguine on US equities, amid sagging sales / earnings news. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 5 May, 2016
Donald Trump's critics have heaped scorn on his calls for protective tariffs to deal with America's widening trade imbalance and the resulting loss of higher-paying blue color jobs. Some have accused him of trying to turn back the clock in pursuit of a cheap populist ploy and have said that he simply refuses to acknowledge that America is now an information and service economy for which large trade deficits are the new normal. But voters are sensing that The Donald is right to sound alarm bells, and that something radical needs to be done to revive manufacturing to make America great again. But his tariff solution is hardly the best medicine. To be honest, given the even worse solutions that are being offered by the left, Trump's instincts may be preferable. Full Story
The fact of the matter is that Europe is now the center for misguided Central Planning for monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi has cut interest rates not once, not twice, not even thrice, but FOUR times into NIRP. Full Story
We don’t expect the markets to rally upwards in one straight line, it will be more like a zig-zag type of upward move, but overall the markets will trend higher. The markets are currently overbought, after mounting extremely strong rallies from their Jan lows, so a nice pullback would not surprise us. All strong pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities and not as signal to run for the hills. Full Story
In defending their long held short positions, the Comex Banks have now issued enough new contracts to drive total open interest back to levels not seen since 2011. Will they be successful in capping price or are they about to get a religious experience? We're about to find out. Let's start with the basics so that we're all on the same page.... Full Story
One would have to be blinded from either denial or ignorance not see the escalating political and military tension between the U.S. and Russia/China. While the U.S. media spins the story into a tall-tale in which BRIC nation leaders are the provocateurs, the truth is that the U.S. has transformed its illegitimate “war on terror” into war on the world in a last-gasp attempt hold onto the economic and geopolitical hegemony it has enjoyed for several decades. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 4 May, 2016
The days of JP Morgan controlling the silver market may be numbered as a new player in the silver market has arrived. For the past several years, JP Morgan held the most silver on a public exchange in the world. While the LBMA may hold (or did hold) more silver, their stockpiles are not made public. Regardless, JP Morgan held the most silver at nearly 74 million oz (Moz) in its warehouse, up until recently. Full Story
I never suggest trading on emotion, yet the “fears” I expressed last week may be developing as the reality on the ground. With the continued strength this past week seen in the miners, one has to question whether the more immediately bullish “green count” is what is in play, with us heading directly to the 40 region without any further 2nd wave retracements. Full Story
After treading water through much of April, the US dollar index took another step lower last week after the BOJ declined to fire another salvo of stimulus at the markets – rocketing the yen higher by over 5 percent for the week. Taking their cue from the currency markets, hard commodities also rallied sharply to new highs for the year, with gold, silver and oil each tacking on ~ 5 percent for the week. Full Story
As the USD falls, investors will turn to inflation-protected assets such as gold, which will also boost gold miner shares. In recent months the dollar has fallen more than 8% since its peak last year. The downturn has sparked a rally in emerging markets, which we recommended as an attractive opportunity in early December. And finally, we believe that crude oil prices have bottomed and will rise steeply as supply shrinks while demand surges ahead. Full Story
Federal Reserve officials hinted at a rate hike as soon as next month, but that prospect did little to support the U.S. dollar or hinder precious metals. Gold and silver prices have surged to new highs for the year while the dollar made a new low. Full Story
Gold has been rising against the dollar since the Fed’s rate hike in December. I think the upside action can continue, but it’s going to start becoming more “interesting”; substantial volatility is poised to become a major theme in the short term. The bottom line is that a one hundred dollar sell-off in gold is likely soon, but so is a near-immediate recovery to another intermediate trend high from there. Full Story
Rick’s professional background includes 12 years as a market maker on the floor of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader. Everyone says to buy at the bottom of the market but few have the gumption to pull it off. Brazil Resources Inc. (TSX-V:BRI, OTCQX:BRIZF) founded in 2009 and taken public in 2011, has spent the last few years snapping up gold projects in the bear market at increasingly cut-rate prices. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 3 May, 2016
Just as Norcini has not challenged GATA's documentation of gold market rigging, he also seems not to have addressed those questions. But then no other critic of GATA has addressed them either. For as Chesterton wrote a hundred years ago, "As is common in most modern discussions, the unmentionable thing is the pivot of the whole discussion." If central banks are surreptitiously trading markets, Norcini's "technical analysis" is the least of the casualties. In that case markets and even democracy itself are finished. Full Story
To Chris and Bill over at GATA, I can only say: “Welcome to my world. What took you so long?” I had been saying for some time that the Fed was NOT BEHIND weakness in the gold price ever since the Dollar embarked on its bull run back in 2014. Remember, back during the time frame when I actually subscribed to GATA’s views, the US Dollar was sinking off the charts and was threatening to fall below the 72 level on the USDX. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 3 May, 2016
While the prices of the precious metals have popped recently, it’s more important to focus on the mid to long term fundamental reasons to own gold and silver. I spoke with Kenneth Ameduri at Crush the Street and talked about the recent spike in the precious metals and the reasons why I left the big city in 2007 and moved to the country. Full Story
The question begs for conspiracy theories to satisfy it, but one might more aptly say that central banks beg for conspiracy theories to explain them, since they operate in the shadows while being given charge of all the financial systems of all the world’s greatest economies. Central bankers have the unchaperoned power to create the greatest fortunes ever known to mankind at will and to invest those fortunes wherever they want. Full Story
If you do not have a position then it is an agonizing time for you as you wrestle with the question of ‘should I - shouldn’t I’ purchase stocks right now. Well there two answers to that question. Firstly if you are intending to hold for five years or so then it probably won’t make a lot of difference if you buy now. However, if you intend to trade this market in order to take advantage of the oscillations on the way up and down, then you may be better off waiting for some of the froth to dissipate from this sector. Full Story
Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment who sees solid signs in the commodities markets, in particular gold and crude oil. Guild Investment is bullish on both sectors, due in part to expectations of future dollar weakness. Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns with encouraging comments on the PMs sector, in particular his "Texas Hedging Scenario." The smart money is simultaneously long silver futures and bullion, instead of the more typical physical hedging arrangement. Full Story
The dollar is tanking lately. From a high of around 100 in December, the dollar index — which measures USD against a basket of foreign currencies — is down about 8%, and the decline is steepening. In counterintuitive currency war terms, that means the US is winning the latest battle. After three years of the dollar being pretty much the only strong currency in the world, US corporate profits are falling (because it’s hard to sell things abroad when you price them in an expensive currency) and growth is slowing (because an economy can’t expand if corporate profits are falling). Presumably the plunging dollar will offer some relief on those fronts. Full Story
In last week’s musing, I documented the history of gold, silver, and the US dollar from the establishment of a national monetary system in 1792 until abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 (Mercenary Musing, April 25, 2016). Today, I will document the modern-day paradigm that began in August of 1971 when Nixon ended conversion of US dollars into gold by foreign governments. Two additional devaluations of the greenback followed in 1972 and 1973. Full Story
Devaluing currencies are normal for our debt based fiat currency financial system. But, when leaders, especially Presidents, are caught in lies, the populace is more inclined to “wake up” and see the reality of corporate and banking control over government policies. Those lies weakened the narrative that the government is run by the people, for the people, and is beneficial to the people. A loss of confidence in leaders leads to a loss of confidence in the country, its institutions, and accelerates the decline of the currency. Full Story
Eventually this will trigger another 2008 type event. When, no one can say, but given that the ECB has failed to generate significant inflation, and that most EU nations have seen their Debt to GDP ratios increase since 2012, it’s not far off. The next Crisis is just around the corner. And it will make 2012 look like a joke. Full Story
This is Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange. We are fortunate today to be joined by Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. In 2006 Mr. Holmes was named Mining Fund Manager Of The Year by the Mining Journal. He is the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher Demystifying Gold Investing, and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business among others, and also the Money Metals Podcast. Full Story
At the end of the day, the warning remains in place. Now is NOT the time to be complacent. If you own stocks, mutual funds and/or have exposure to the stock market through your 401(k), you MUST remain keenly aware of the risks at present. Market history doesn't always repeat but it very often rhymes. Therefore, so long as the charts continue to bear such a striking resemblance to 2001 and 2008, the risk in participating in the "stock market" remains high. Full Story
The price of gold shot up over $60 this week. The price of silver moved up proportionally, gaining over $0.85. The mood is now palpable. The feeling in the air is that of long suffering suddenly turned to optimism. Big gains, if not the collapse of the price-suppression cartel, are now inevitable. Full Story
In the early sixteenth century, the Hunt-Lenox globe was drawn, showing uncharted (and presumably dangerous) areas, marked with the warning: “HIC SVNT DRACONES” – “Here are Dragons.” Subsequent to that time, mariners sometimes adopted the phrase, “there might be dragons,” if they became concerned for their safety when in unfamiliar waters. Full Story
Has the positioning of the big commercial traders in the monetary metals futures markets lost its value as an indicator of future monetary metals prices?
It seems like gold and silver bugs and maybe a few ordinary investors have been waiting for weeks for the usual smashing of the metals by those traders, the big investment banks, hoping to buy the next dip, only to have to watch the metals and the mining shares move steadily higher. Full Story
The Fed has been trying to promote inflation. That is not the guy with the tin foil hat speaking, it is direct from FOMC statements targeting a higher inflation level, which is another way of saying they are targeting a lower US dollar level. From this we leaned toward that which would benefit from a declining USD. Precious metals (led by silver) are a prime beneficiary, with oil and some commodities remaining firm despite pressure on stock markets as corporate performance and economic signals continue to fade. Full Story
The futures punched past a clear Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 1288.25 on Friday with sufficient force to put the 1336.30 ‘secondary pivot’ (see inset) in play as a minimum target for the near term. The rally has also made the red line potentially available for a ‘mechanical’ buy, provided the June contract stays above it for a couple more bars before pulling back. The implied stop-loss for this strategy would be enormous, amounting to about $4,800 per contract if the more conservative 1336.30 is used as a target rather than D=1384.40. Full Story
On the US Dollar index chart, I have marked the two fractals (1 to 3). I have also indicated the relevant silver tops and bottoms to show how the patterns exist in similar conditions. Furthermore, if you look on the Dow chart, you will see that the Dow peaked just before point 3 on both patterns. If this comparison is justified, then we will see a big drop in the Dow and the US dollar index soon. This is consistent with my long-term analysis of the Dow and the US Dollar index. While this is happening silver, and gold will rise to phenomenal highs (which has already started). Full Story
The first point I would like to make is that many of you are probably wondering how I could reverse my long term bearish view on the precious metals complex to a bullish view in such a short period of time. The other point I’ve been trying to make is to get you positioned and sit tight, as this new bull market is just getting started. Understanding the Chartology of this sector from the many different precious metals stock indexes, to individual PM stocks and especially the combo ratio charts, paints a picture that if one keeps an open mind and truly understands what is taking place right now, getting positioned and sitting tight makes alot of sense. This is easier said than done of course. Full Story
The situation is paradoxical – gold and silver have broken out upside despite already extreme COT readings, yet the dollar has still not broken down. This setup continues to warrant caution, yet if the dollar should break down from its potential top area and drop hard, gold and silver will go into a vertical meltup – and here we should not forget the tight physical supply situation. In the last update we expected gold and silver to drop due to the COTs extremes, but they have done the opposite resulting in even greater extremes, which in silver’s case are “off the scale”. Full Story
As is always the case at these major turning points, the usual analysts are going to get it wrong again. The dollar is finishing an intermediate cycle decline, not starting one. Stocks are dropping down into a half cycle low of intermediate degree, not starting another leg down in a bear market. Full Story
Gold is showing some very good strength at this time, as the weaker dollar, combined with negative interest rates, and in some instances, NEGATIVE REAL RATES, has made the opportunity cost in holding the metal practically non-existent. Throw in the continued uncertainty over global equity market valuations, and gold demand continues to remain strong. As noted previously however,the recent lackluster interest in GLD is on my radar screen however. Full Story
Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment who sees solid signs in the commodities markets, in particular gold and crude oil. Guild Investment is bullish on both sectors, due in part to expectations of future dollar weakness. Their long-term viewpoint on gold is solidly bullish due to the need to payoff global debts through further currency debasement. Full Story
China’s historic post-2009 debt binge flew largely under the radar — fooling most observers into thinking the global economy was recovering rather than just re-leveraging. Now Beijing is back at it, borrowing over $1 trillion in this year’s first quarter, buying up commodities and creating the illusion of global growth. But this time the scam hasn’t gone unnoticed. Reporters, editors and money managers seem, at last, to be catching on. Full Story
Regression to the mean. There is one universal law in this business and it never never gets broken. Price always regresses to the mean. This one is like death and taxes. It is never violated. And the further price stretches in one direction the harder it moves back once the trend comes to an end. Full Story
Stock were choppy for much of the week with heavy hitting companies reporting poor numbers for the most part while a few did knock it out of the park but in the end they weren’t enough to hold up the markets which began to fall Friday. I’m not so sure how deep this correction/consolidation phase will go but we are in the midst of it. Full Story
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