By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 6 May, 2011
We have seen new surprising and strong demand from global central banks in the last week. This demand occurred over the last two months and had to compete with other strong demand from all sides of the gold market. As we move into the quiet season for gold and have experienced a short sharp correction so far how will central banks react? Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 6 May, 2011
This week saw the type of downside volatility in the precious metals market that will be remembered for years to come. For those of us who have been long gold, and silver in particular, the memories will not be pleasant. While many had been expecting a pullback in silver, when the violence did come it was nevertheless shocking. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 6 May, 2011
The financial condition of the United States is irreversible. The liabilities of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (See Figure 1), along with an annual budget deficit that adds $1.5 trillion of additional debt per year, equate to an insolvent government. Markets do not reflect the fact that the government is insolvent because most investors and asset managers believe that a funding crisis can be avoided because of the Federal Reserve’s ability to print enough money. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 6 May, 2011
The beleaguered US dollar has certainly challenged silver’s crown of being the most-one-sided trade lately. The bearishness and pessimism plaguing the world’s reserve currency is overwhelming and universal, with nearly everyone convinced the US dollar is ready to fall off a cliff. But it is psychological conditions just like today’s that birth mighty bear-market rallies, with widespread implications for traders. Full Story
As Adrian Day, of Adrian Day Asset Management, plays the current gold market "for all it’s worth," he isn't happy about the political decisions fueling it. Read in this exclusive Gold Report interview how he would fix the federal deficit, what he looks for in gold stocks and why his gut tells him the gold price is headed for a fall. Full Story
Summing up, what we have seen recently was probably (slightly more probable than not) a major top for the previous rally. However, regardless of this being true or not, a short-term rally from here appears likely. Naturally, if the final top is not yet in, then the rally will take silver much higher. Full Story
Given all the Negative Fundamentals, and the recent Brutal Takedown of Gold and Silver, where are Investors to turn for Wealth Protection and Profit? This question is addressed here with the following Observations, and our conclusion: Treat the Takedown as an Opportunity! Full Story
Silver had/has become a driving force in the precious metal market, overtaking gold in terms of upside and downside momentum. The Gold/Silver Ratio Chart below shows that this ratio had moved dramatically in silver’s favor this year, as that ratio dropped from a high of 50 down to 32 just days ago. Today it is back to 40. Full Story
The inflation versus deflation arguments rage on in the financial news sector. The Goldsmiths XXVII (published in Oct 2008) and LXXIII (published on Apr 23, 2009) discussed the arguments in detail. This Goldsmiths will continue the discussion but highlight the fact that the position of this writer has not changed on the question since the Goldsmiths started in Aug 2008. Of course, many analysts have vacillated around on the issue, back and forth, but not the Goldsmiths. Full Story
Gold and Silver punished the faithful yet again on Thursday, demolishing the technical supports we’d thought would arrest the decline. The sturdiest of them barely evinced a bounce, a fact that telegraphed the onslaught that was to follow. Full Story
When it comes to supply and demand, what you’ve been told about gold jewelry is wrong. That’s a strong statement, but I’ve got a firsthand account to back it up. Most industry organizations separate jewelry from investment when they tally the numbers on the uses for gold. This makes sense, of course, because one is a coin or bar purchased as a store of value and the other is something designed to be worn. But what if large populations around the world view them as serving the same purpose? Full Story
The odds of a long-awaited precious metals correction increased this week. Gold and silver have been setting new high after new high. Gold is up $100 and silver’s up more than $10 since President Obama ruled out significant spending cuts in his mid-April budget speech and the Fed chairman noted inflation will be “transitory.” Full Story
Two years ago, in our Annual Report, we correctly predicted that 2009 would be the year of print-and-spend; that gold prices would soar; that government response to mounting debt would increase currency risk; and that inflation, not deflation, was an issue because the US Federal Reserve has an unlimited ability for currency creation. Over the past year, conditions have deteriorated as these events continued to play out, and once again precious metals prices were the beneficiaries. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 5 May, 2011
I have worked on Wall Street my entire life, and one thing I've learned is that large institutional investors, like pension funds and endowments, rarely veer from the herd. They manage too much of other people's money to stick their necks out alone - if their investments go bad, at least they can point to everyone else who fared just as poorly. Full Story
America’s founding fathers would not be surprised at the dire state of the nation they created in1776. America was then an experiment. No similar form of government had ever been attempted; and even at its birth the founding fathers had doubts as to whether the American experiment would succeed. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 5 May, 2011
MarketWatch and Wall Street Journal columnist Brett Arends lately has eased off his disparagement of gold, and with his commentary at MarketWatch yesterday he joined those who have been asking how there can be a bubble in gold when there's no retail public buying of it. But Arends predicts that gold will become a bubble, which may be less than fully satisfying to those whose aspirations for the metal are a bit higher than the next big trade -- whose aspirations for gold involve its becoming an independent currency trading freely, unmanipulated by central bank intervention. Full Story
Recent comments from Wal-Mart chief executive Mike Duke have investors on high alert. This time, though, the news spreads well beyond Wal-Mart. At a company event in New York, Duke reminded the crowd that retail is softening, “we’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” and later added that it was rising fuel costs, just another component of monetary inflation, that was driving the sales loss. Of particular interest to inflation watchers should be his comments that were mostly ignored. Full Story
By: The Gold Report, Malcolm Gissen, and Marshall Berol - 5 May, 2011
Party politics in America are pushing up the gold price, according to Encompass Fund Comanagers Malcolm Gissen and Marshall Berol. And that's playing right into their hands as commodities and other hard-assets plays in the Encompass Fund continue to outperform the broad market. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gissen and Berol discuss their long-term investment philosophies. Full Story
Although some technicians we respect think bullion’s correction will stretch into summer, we think it will be over within a week. In our experience, powerful bull markets recoup violent selloffs with rallies that are just as violent. Silver’s correction has been violent indeed, savaging quotes by 25 percent in just a few days. Full Story
I'm writing today after spending the last three days in Boca Raton, Florida, attending The Next Few Years: A Casey Research Summit. If you're not already familiar, the purpose of this summit was to bring together many of the world's top economic and investing minds to share with us where they believe we're headed in the months and years ahead. Full Story
So the cheapest money in history played no role in killing the century-long downtrend in commodity prices...? A LITTLE over three years ago, we published this chart here at BullionVault – now updated so you can see just how much mischief cheap money is causing... Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 May, 2011
Dollar weakness that has continued will continue. That is to make US goods cheaper and more saleable as exports, but the flip side is that imported goods are more expensive and that creates inflation. Such a policy is foolhardy versus foreign nations that have export advantages. Besides the US does not have the predominance of mass to compete on this level. If tariffs on goods and services were implemented that would be another story. Full Story
By: Nu Yu, Ph. D with Lorimer Wilson - 4 May, 2011
There are a number of different ways to look at what has been happening with the price of gold and silver of late and to anticipate what is next in store for this precious metal. One of the most unique ways of assessing past, present and future movement is by taking a look at the “Three Peaks and the Domed House” and “Bump and Run” chart pattern. Indeed, the “Three Peaks” pattern suggests that gold has peaked and will now decline by 17% to $1,290 per ozt. in June. Let me explain. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 3 May, 2011
U.S. demand for gas at the pump is starting to react to the rising prices. No wonder. U.S. consumers are seeing a 30% jump in oil prices over the past few months. U.S. motor fuel prices have become a heated political issue after pushing towards $4 a gallon. Gasoline futures hit 33-month highs on Tuesday. The rising prices at the pump are fueling voter discontent with Obama's leadership and could harm his re-election chances in 2012. Full Story
In our previous essay (Golden Rally with a Silver Lining) we described the current situation in gold and silver and today we would like to provide you with a follow-up. Sometimes, traditional technical (we don’t view all of our methods as traditional, though) or fundamental analysis isn’t enough to draw best conclusions in precious metals market; signals might be weak or contradictory, and sometimes. In all cases, it’s good to have some sort of confirmation. So, if we want additional information what would it be? Full Story
The maintenance margin to trade silver with leverage is now $15,000. If you bought at $4 an ounce, the cost to buy 5000 ounces, fully paid for, would have been $20,000. The value of 5000 fully paid ounces of silver is now almost $250,000. Full Story
After what should be a brief pause this week commodity markets will move into the greatest rally of the last decade. As usual I will stay focused on the precious metal markets. They have been the leaders during this entire move out of the `08 bottom and they will see the largest parabolic move of all commodities during the final leg up. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends newsletter - 3 May, 2011
One year ago, few traders were expecting a pullback of any significant degree, with the Dow Jones Industrials perched above the 11,000-level. Traders had become complacent after a year long advance, in which the Dow Industrials had risen +70% above its bear market low, while retreating only twice for minor pullbacks. Traders stopped thinking about potential dangers, and started believing the risk of another bear market had vanished. Yet simmering beneath the surface was the specter of a sovereign debt default, rivaling the size of Lehman Brothers’, and threatening the world economy with a “double-dip” recession. Full Story
I’d like to take a page from General McAuliffe and say ‘nuts’ to all those who are warning their readers not to buy gold and silver because they think that the ‘top is in’. Sure, silver may (or maybe not?) need a few weeks to climb above the magical $50.00 level, just as gold took its time to rise above $1,450.00; but $50.00 silver today does not mean the same thing as $50.00 silver in 1980. Full Story
It’s payback time for Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). In some ways, this should neither surprise, nor scare anyone. Unfortunately, however, it might do both. In any open market, information is absorbed rather quickly into asset prices, including exchange rates. Indeed, exchange rates may be the best pricing source to assess the impact of the relentless involvement of policy makers’ “print and spend” mentality in the markets. When trillions are spent, markets are likely to move. However, an unintended consequence has been that a broad range of assets are now moving more and more in tandem, giving investors fewer options to diversify. Full Story
And eventually this will grow into a panic. You should know and understand this as planning your portfolios effectively moving forward will depend on proper perspective, where although corrections will take place, deflation is not in the cards, which will surprise some pretty heavy thinkers. No, if anything stagflation will at a minimum worsen; and then conditions could possibly advance into shades of hyperinflation if a real panic out of the $ occurs. Therein, maybe prices will not be increasing 50% per month, which is the conventional definition of hyperinflation, but that won’t matter because most people would be financially destroyed at 10% given present debt levels and what such an outcome would do to the cost of money. Full Story
The rising Aussie dollar is limiting the gold stocks at present in addition to hurting about half of the Australian economy. Exporters (manufacturing) are suffering, so are tourism & education. This article examines the recent history of the AUD gold price and gold stock valuations and profitability in this context. Full Story
Organic demand can only come from an increase in real personal income, especially those income groups that are more likely to increase its consumption expenditure as their incomes increase. This lies at the heart of the dominant causes of the Credit Crisis and a stuttering economy. Economic policy that in effect opposes real wage increases, does not give much hope for the future. Full Story
By: Karen Roche and John Williams, The Gold Report - 2 May, 2011
Economic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation. Full Story
It has long been my position that the peaking of the 6-year cycle scheduled for around the beginning of October this year will likely see the end of the recovery. The Fed ultimately won’t be able to halt the underlying forces of long-wave deflation but it can have a short-term impact on mitigating deflation, which is what we’re witnessing now in the commodities market. Unfortunately the short-term impact is also creating a potentially catastrophic distortion on retail prices that will ultimately inflict severe economic damage before deflation makes its presence known once again. Full Story
By: Scott Silva, The Gold Speculator - 2 May, 2011
There are better choices for investors seeking to maintain their wealth. Investors can choose to protect their wealth by owning gold and silver. Today’s pullback provides a good entry point. The bull market in gold and silver has a long way to run. Full Story
For the second time in a week the CME raised margin requirements on silver ... Thursday after the Comex close. While The Gold Cartel requests timed tactics such as these to assist their price-capping efforts, this move is very understandable as silver rose more in a single trading session than the old margin requirement the other day. Thus, it was very appropriate for the exchange to raise margins on silver… Full Story
By: Steve Saville, Speculative Investor - 2 May, 2011
Now, we aren't arguing that gold is money today (it isn't). Nor are we arguing that silver will not out-perform gold over the course of the long-term bull market that encompasses both gold and silver (we have always maintained that silver's reward potential was greater than gold's, but that the additional reward potential was offset by greater risk). What we are arguing is that gold is now a long way ahead of any other commodity (including silver) in terms of ability to fulfill the monetary role, an implication of which is that gold will very likely continue to out-perform silver by a wide margin during those periods when there is a surge in the demand for the safety/liquidity of "money" (2001-2003 and 2008, for example) and under-perform silver during those periods when there is a general shift towards riskier ventures. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 2 May, 2011
We are supposed to be two years into an economic recovery. Tell that to those with stagnant wages who have to fight against 10% inflation, which our government ingeniously tells us, is 1.9%. Some $900 billion or more will have been created out of thin air by the Fed and spent buying Treasury and Agency bonds, notes and bills and the $862 billion consigned to the economy in December will all have been spent. We are about to enter the next round in June. Will there be austerity or rampant inflation, the result of $1.8 trillion in spending, or will we get trillions more funding from the Fed? We think we will get the funding, because little help can come from Congress. If such events unfold you can expect an upward move in real interest rates to offset a negative rating and more injections of money and credit. Full Story
Two factors – developing countries urbanization and US$ weakness - are so overwhelming driving the global economy and their effects are so in-sync with each other that investments in two sectors - commodities and precious metals – should be on every investors radar screen. Is it on yours? Full Story
The "hot" money has made a boatload of cash in silver and there's likely still more to be made in this intermediate term run for the white metal. However, rotation of speculative money into Gold has likely begun and things could be just starting to heat up. As Sinclair has been saying, $1650 is in the bag for this run. However, could we also be looking at jumping the log scale trend line on this move like silver has done? Full Story
By: radio.GoldSeek.com - The Gold and Silver Review - 1 May, 2011
1st Hour:
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions.
In sum, longer term, all the aforementioned reasons for the Precious Metals Meteoric Rise to date still exist and will drive these Precious Metals higher.
Finally, consider that even with the recent Bull run, the Precious Metals Market is no where near overcrowded. Full Story
Finally, the Fed’s cheap money policy isn’t likely to end anytime soon. This week we got more of the same from the Fed. The Fed’s policies are pushing investors to take more risks – whether they want to or not.
All of this is coming together to create a solid, low-risk opportunity in high-quality large cap stocks.
In a market like this, it’s one of the few remaining spots with investors looking for a decent, risk-adjusted return. Full Story
I have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking. Full Story
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