It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Starting a few years ago, retiring Baby Boomers were supposed to downsize en masse, flooding the market with houses bought in the 1970s, 80s and 90s and producing a buyer’s paradise full of 70-year-old sellers on their way to Florida and eager to entertain any reasonable (or less than reasonable) offer. Based purely on demographics, today’s media should be full of stories about cocky Millennial buyers who feel no need to pull the trigger. Full Story
The above, from the Amigos to the Metallic Indicators like PALL/Gold are part of a macro picture that needs to be respected. For example, yields rose with the post-election bull, stocks out performed gold with the good times since 2011, the yield curve has flattened with the boom and Palladium rose vs. Gold on the positive cycle. If some or all of these trends continue to turn and/or start to turn you can rationally expect outcomes very opposite to the previous trends. Full Story
“Dad, I’m excited and ready for business. Mom made me sign an IOU when she gave me sugar and frozen lemonade so I have stuff to sell.” Timmy looked up at his father and smiled in anticipation. “Great job! This’ll be a learning experience. Here comes your first customer.” James, his father, wanted to be helpful, but expected Timmy to interact with customers. Full Story
Silver has been dead money over the past year or so, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower. That weak price action has naturally left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor. Silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, while speculators’ silver-futures positions are extraordinarily bearish. All this has created the perfect breeding ground to birth a major new silver bull market, which could erupt anytime. Full Story
With the open interest in Comex silver blowing out to a new alltime high yesterday, we thought it best to discuss again what this indicates and what it doesn't. As of yesterday's Comex close, the total open interest in Comex silver is at an alltime high of 241,135 contracts. This blows away the previous alltime high seen on April 20 of last year at 234,787 contracts. Let's first hit the basics... Full Story
Part II. of the discussion of Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A continues the intriguing dialogue on silver and Bitcoin. As a GATA.org colleague, Bix Weir notes that the silver market is rigged - manipulators have the upper hand, but only for the time being. JP Morgan holds over 134 million ounces of silver, up from zero ounces in just few years, but our guest thinks the actual figure is several fold the official tally, nearly 1 billion silver ounces. Full Story
As for trends, there’s none at work on the Daily chart as the chart pattern is one of a higher high and lower low pattern. The Weekly chart however stay’s bullish if 1306.6, the low of March 23rd is not taken out. Support on the Weekly chart is 1317.3, the 18-Week Moving Average of Closes while support on the Daily chart comes in at the 100-Day Moving Average of Closes, 1319.3. Therefore, how the market holds up if these levels are attacked will answer what if gold is going to breakdown and expand prices to the downside. Full Story
We have been here before – twice. The first time was in the late 1920s, which led to the dollar’s devaluation in 1934. And the second was 1966-68, which led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. Even though gold is now officially excluded from the monetary system, it does not save the dollar from a third collapse and will still be its yardstick. Full Story
To sum up, U.S. public debt has surpassed $21 trillion. Investors should remember that there is nothing special in that particular threshold. Default is still unlikely. The truth is that flows are more important than the stock – of course, the fiscal deficits are also rising, but as long as the expansion lasts, nothing wrong should happen. Having said that, a lack of any reforms during good times will take revenge in bad times. As a safe-haven asset, gold should benefit then. Full Story
Allan Flynn, who runs the "Comex, We Have a Problem" blog, this week posted a fascinating review of the traders who are the major targets of the recent investigation by the U.S. Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission of "spoofing" in the monetary metals futures markets. Full Story
Just two mines supply the United States with half of its silver production, and both are located in Alaska. It’s quite amazing that Alaska now produces half of the silver for the U.S. when only 30 years ago total mine supply from the state was less than 50,000 oz per year. The silver produced in Alaska comes from the Greens Creek and Red Dog Mines. One is a primary silver mine and the other a zinc-lead base metal mine. Full Story
Based on the gold/silver ratio one would expect silver to do better than gold even if both are rising. And based on the COT report, gold should fall while silver rises. Today the metals finally started to behave this way, with silver rising and gold falling. Full Story
Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace. Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future. Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports – especially because the mainstream media and most consultancy firms are in denial of these events. Full Story
It’s more than just a daily phenomenon, though; any prolonged wave of uncertainty that hits the markets will push investors into gold. What’s happening on a small scale now will play out on a much bigger scale when sentiment shifts, especially in regard to our monetary system. And when gold and silver volatility really ratchet up, it’ll be a lot of fun, as you’re about to see. Full Story
Join Mike Maloney as he takes a light-hearted look at a very serious question - is there such a thing as a free lunch? The answer won't be a surprise to regular viewers of our videos, but if you are new - this may be a revelation. Full Story
Gold soared yesterday likely based on the escalation of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, but after several hours the rally was over. The tensions didn’t really subside, but the price of gold is already about $10 below the price at which it was trading when yesterday’s rally had started. Is gold trying to say something? No. It’s not saying – it’s screaming. Full Story
While we still await the crypto bottom, I want to start this week's article off with a personal narrative. I owe my current working life to ethereum. In 2016, I was a practicing design strategist for Samsung while trading as a hobby. In fact, I had already been trading for two decades when I decided to continue my study of the market by learning Elliott Wave Theory. Soon after that, I started using my new knowledge with ethereum (ETHUSD), then a new coin. Full Story
The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate. I am going to share a little bit about myself and my personal motivation. I want to help fix this problem. The alternative, if it’s not fixed, will be a repeat not of 2008 or the inflation of the 1970’s or 1929. It will be a repeat of 476AD, the collapse of Rome and the known world. Full Story
The head of Eagle Plains Resources Ltd., CEO Tim J. Termuende, makes his show debut. Eagle Plains Resources is a mineral explorer located in Western Canada that seeks key deposits of gold, base metals, uranium, rare earth elements, and industrial minerals. Eagle Plains Resources enhances shareholder value through the acquisition and development of early stage mineral exploration projects. Full Story
Junior resource sector speculators are often subjected to this or that company’s insiders and promoters informing us in no uncertain terms that this or that country, department, prefecture, province, state, or territory is the “fill-in-the-blank”-best jurisdiction in the world for mining investment. Full Story
You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages. The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms. Full Story
Since we were here last year some big changes have occurred in the international gold price suppression policy. These changes indicate growing tightness in the gold market -- indicate that governments and central banks are having to work harder to keep the price down. First, the Bank for International Settlements, the association of major central banks, has jumped back into the gold market. Full Story
After rallying on Friday, stocks tanked on Monday, dropping over 450 points. In fact, it was the worst first day of the second quarter since the Great Depression. Most analysts blamed the plunge on the escalating trade war, but Peter Schiff has a different take. He said it was just another bad day in a bear market. In fact, he said the market could have rallied because the Chinese response wasn’t as bad as it could have been. But when you’re in a bear market, all news is bad news. Full Story
Gold has a long history of being monetary asset behind it and the gold market is well established, very liquid and relatively stable. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is young, with small liquidity and high volatility. Investors buy Bitcoin and other alt-coins not as safe-havens, but rather as speculative vehicles. Hence, contrary to some commentators, the gold prices shouldn’t be affected by rallies and downturns in cryptocurrencies. Stay tuned! Full Story
With volatility returning to domestic equities, it might be time for investors to consider increasing their exposure to foreign markets, specifically emerging Europe. As I shared with you in January, emerging Europe countries, as measured by the MSCI EM Europe 10/40 Index, finished last year up more than 20 percent, and so far in 2018 they’ve returned 1.17 percent, compared to the SPX 500 Index, which is down more than 3 percent. Full Story
In the end, it is vitally important that you understand that "the markets" in 2018 are not the same as they were in 2008 or 1998. Instead, "markets" are primarily controlled by High Frequency Trading computers whose algorithmically-based programs swap positions at the speed of light. As this pertains to the precious metals, it's clear that fundamental factors such as physical supply and demand have little to no impact on price. Only a recognition of this basic fact gives you an understanding of what drives price on a daily or weekly basis. Full Story
Gold stock enthusiasts who missed the most recent two-day pullback buying opportunity will have to wait for the next one to get in on the upside fun. Following that pullback, gold and gold stocks could be ready to surf an Akha Teej themed wave, right through $1370 and on towards my $1425 area target price! Full Story
Central bank and government archives are full of official plans and speculation about selling gold to suppress prices or spook the market. Further, the records of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission and CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, show that in recent years central banks and governments have been secretly trading all commodity and financial futures contracts in the United States. Full Story
Gold started the month with an upswing, silver soared and… Silver stocks declined. Yes, you read that right. Big upswings can be bullish developments, but it’s definitely not true in all cases. For instance, in this case, one could say that while it’s true that gold moved higher, it failed to move to the late-March high, let alone break above it. Why is gold not moving decisively in any direction? Full Story
A tech crash would be brutal but survivable. But if the markets lose faith in sovereign debt and fiat currency, that’s the end of the system as we know it. A plausible last act to bring this about might be a tech dislocation that pulls down the rest of the stock market, prompting central banks to respond with massive money creation and universally-negative interest rates. Then let’s see what happens to those fiat currencies. Full Story
So, what would a 60% selloff in the broader markets due to the gold and silver price?? That’s a good question. If just 1% of the $400 trillion in global assets moved into the precious metals, we could see some insanely higher prices. But, I don’t like to put out price targets because analysts who have done so in the past only frustrate themselves and their followers. Full Story
Precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on buy signals. Cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Short-term trend in gold is down, intermediate trend neutral, with long-term outlook very positive. On its latest 6-month chart we can that it has backed off again from resistance, this time from a slightly lower level, with the retreat predicated by the now bearish COTs, or rather it would be if it didn’t take three days for this information to be made public. Taking into account that the COT probably eased on Wednesday's and Thursday's drop, further short-term weakness look likely until this COT has moderated. Full Story
Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed for about five minutes this morning by Bernie Lo and Akiko Fujita on CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" program in Hong Kong, discussing the surreptitious daily interventions in the gold market by central banks and the Bank for International Settlements to suppress the monetary metal's price. Full Story
Let’s tie two topics we have treated, one in exhaustive depth and the other in an ongoing series. They are bitcoin and capital consumption. By now, everyone knows that the price of bitcoin crashed. Barrels of electrons are being spilled discussing and debating why, and if/when the price will go back to what it ought to be ($1,000,000 we are told). Full Story
For one, the U.S. has been a net energy exporter before, most recently in the 1950s. And two, America isn’t currently energy independent. But that could change very soon. As I told you in February, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by as early as 2022, and the agency recently shared fresh data that supports the narrative that America is on the cusp of taking the throne as the world’s leading energy powerhouse. Full Story
Last Monday, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched the first futures contract for crude oil priced in Chinese yuan. It’s a major step forward in the process of international de-dollarization. Now Chinese and other international traders can buy and sell the world’s most important commodity in a liquid market without using U.S. dollars. Full Story
The best performing metal this week silver, down 1.13 percent. Gold traders were split this week between bullish and bearish outcomes, according to the weekly Bloomberg survey. The yellow metal is on its best run since 2011 as it wraps up a third consecutive quarter of gains and exchange-traded funds backed by bullion are also near the highest in five years. Following two takeovers announced last week, Goldfields has entered into an agreement to purchase a 50 percent stake in Asanko Gold Ghana’s interest in Asanko Gold Mine for an upfront payment of $165 million. Full Story
Volatility has become the name of the game. As Lloyd Blankfein notes, just as you think everything is under control something erupts. It was always hubris and complacency to think that nothing was going to happen to the markets as they climbed relentlessly higher, seemingly oblivious to the potential “dark clouds” gathering around. But threats of trade wars, rising debt, global geopolitical tensions, chaos and turnover in the White House, and gathering storms around the U.S. President all eventually do take a toll. Full Story
Many of you have likely seen discussions in the media about the LIBOR-OIS spread. This spread is a measure of banking system health. It was one of Alan Greenspan’s favorite benchmark indicators of systemic liquidity. LIBOR is the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate, which is the benchmark interest rate at which banks lend to other banks. The most common intervals are 1-month and 3-month. Full Story
If these trendlines break (as I expect they will in the coming weeks) it will mark the beginning of the end for The Everything Bubble. All told, there is over $199 trillion in debt outstanding and an additional $500+ trillion in derivatives trading based on these bond yields. So when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) we will experience a crisis many magnitudes worse than 2008. Suffice to say, the opportunity to make MASSIVE gains from this trend is HUGE. Full Story
Just like the weather, the world economy and financial markets go through cycles. Most years, they don’t change suddenly. We get some transition time between the colder and warmer seasons. I fear we may be in an economic transition right now, and it may not be in the direction of the springtime or summer we would prefer. But let’s look at these charts and see what they tell us. Full Story
Last week we noted that Gold’s quarterly close would be a key marker for Gold’s immediate breakout potential. Gold was seemingly on course for its highest quarterly close since 2012 until it reversed back below quarterly resistance at $1330/oz. Hence, an imminent break to the upside is unlikely and gold watchers will have to remain patient. It’s not yet Gold’s time. It will be soon enough. Full Story
After our recent article debunking manipulation, we got a phone call from a man whom we will call Jim Bailey (all names have been changed to protect the innocent and the guilty). Jim worked on the London gold desk at a major financial institution. He told us that a lot of what we said was spot on. However, he said in no uncertain terms that manipulation does occur. Here is Jim’s story, as related to us by phone on Friday. Full Story
In the context of relative performance, silver could easily assume the role of Terry Malloy (Marlon Brando in "On the Waterfront" [1954]) when he looks at his older brother and says: "I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let's face it." And make no mistake, silver has behaved like a bum, without class, never in contention, and a complete "nobody." Full Story
You don’t have to be a chartist to discern the weight of supply sitting on the stock market right now. The steep pitch of early February’s plunge tells us that many investors were caught completely by surprise. Although some undoubtedly expect shares to binge anew to untold highs, it’s possible that even more are waiting for a strong upswing that would allow an exit with less-than-stellar gains. That is the nature of the supply overhang mentioned above, and it will tend to limit the rallies. It will also exacerbate the downdrafts, with each new wave of selling persuading more and more investors to exit on the very next show of strength. Full Story
Part I of the discussion of Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A includes comments on silver and Bitcoin. While gold remains the de facto king of currencies, Bix Weir outlines his highly bullish case for silver. The duo agree, silver represents an ideal safe haven as a hedge against the Echo Bubble, which threatens to ignite the Great Recession II. Full Story
The silver miners’ stocks have really languished since mid-2016, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower. With gold out of favor, silver and its miners have largely been left for dead and forgotten. This sector is deeply mired in universal apathy and bearishness. But since silver stocks can skyrocket when silver decisively rallies again, it’s important to keep an eye on silver miners’ fundamentals like their recent Q4’17 results. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being names America's best fund manager by the Mining Journal. He's also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. And is a regular guest on CNBC Bloomberg, FOX Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast. Full Story
While silver investment demand is totally off the radar, certain indicators, including the Gold-Silver ratio, suggest that interest in the poor man’s gold will likely increase significantly over the next few years. The rising interest in silver will also occur as the broader markets continue to meltdown towards more realistic valuations. Full Story
Surmounting Impediments to Profit and Wealth Protection in increasingly Volatile Markets requires Understanding and Surmounting Threats to Freedom, though these Threats to Freedom are not always obvious. Here, we expose several Main Freedom Threats and indicate how to help Surmount them and thus enhance Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection, and Privacy. Full Story
In Chris Powell’s recent response to my article, he has again done what GATA does best – massage the facts to fit their narrative. So, while GATA admittedly will be unable to tell you where the market is heading next, they certainly know how to spin what people say to try to explain why they have no clue where the market is going. Full Story
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