By: The Gold Report and Brian Tang - 6 February, 2009
Since 2003, Fundamental Research Corp. (FRC) has been focusing on companies not widely followed by brokerage firms, bringing investors and undervalued small and micro cap companies together. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, FRC founder Brian Tang and his crew forecast the primary driver of base metal prices in 2009, the future of gold and copper and the infinite upside of investing in finite resources. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 6 February, 2009
The intense scrutiny recently paid to my investment strategy in the immediate wake of the financial crisis of the last six months has unfortunately obscured the central element of my larger economic forecast. The standard line has been that although I was able to predict the crash, in the form of the housing collapse and the credit crunch, my expected fallout of a weaker dollar and global decoupling has been proven false. However, this assumes that the crash has fully played out. In reality, all we have heard thus far is the overture. Full Story
By: Marc Gugerli and Oliver Disler - 6 February, 2009
Gold has outperformed all major asset classes like bonds and shares. The Gold price calculated in South African Rand, Australian and Canadian Dollar, British Pound, EURO, Swiss Franc and some other currencies Gold just recently reached new highs. Rather disappointing is the performance of gold mining shares. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 6 February, 2009
Zero is a perfidious number. Nobody likes it. Nobody wants to be “a zero.” Nobody wants to get a zero on a test…or zero returns on his investments. It is a line that leads nowhere…with no substance in the middle of it. You can add a zero…or multiply by zeros; it gets you nowhere. And is a zero? Is it something? Or nothing? No one knows. Full Story
To identify Profit Opportunities in 2009 one must first seriously consider a variety of “Hard Realities” and daunting Forecasts in the linked Economic and Financial Arenas, and explore their Consequences. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 6 February, 2009
While wreaking its unbelievable destruction, last quarter’s financial-market panic certainly showed no favoritism. Launching from ground zero in the financial stocks, shockwaves of selling blasted out through the entire market landscape. Everything speculators once loved was left in ruins, including silver. Full Story
The year of 2009 started as how it ended in 2008. The inflation/deflation debate intensified and still there seems to be no agreement whether we're heading into a deflationary or hyperinflationary depression. I've stated many times that hyper inflation will be the tune of the day coming years. The deflationists can argue what they want but the simple truth is that the US government will default sooner or later on its inability to service its ballooning debt which makes the US dollar worthless overnight. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 6 February, 2009
There are several ways to play this sector, some more rewarding than the others, but the simplest way if you are bullish, would be to purchase shares in KOL, the coal ETF. As market conditions are currently far from normal, individuals should refrain from taking huge bites, but instead deploy their money in bits and pieces. Finally, one needs to take the long term view, for the short term ride is bound to be volatile. Full Story
If we actually had an honest money system, where the money supply was not increased, prices of almost everything would actually go down every year (this would be due to technology, know how, efficiencies of scale, etc.) and anyone with a job or savings would become wealthier every year. Full Story
The Bank of England fired the fifth shot in its series of panic interest rate cuts that have taken the base interest down from 5% in October 2008 to 1% today. This follows the crash in UK GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008 which contracted by -1.5% and is inline with earlier analysis that projects towards an additional 3% GDP contraction for 2009. Full Story
The battle continues within the US Government to gather the funds to spend our way out of problems. Just moments ago the Senate approved a $925 Billion Stimulus Plan. From what I’ve read, there seems to be a lot of “pork” in the bill, but I believe that very shortly, possibly with a modification or two the plan will pass. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Peter Grandich - 6 February, 2009
Uranium has seen its worst days in my view. I do believe we’ve seen the bottom and I believe it can tick up. The real factor will be how much the new U.S. administration is truly going to look at alternative energy. It’s one thing to say it during a campaign, but how much will Obama turn to alternative energy? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 6 February, 2009
The Harper’s Index had the interesting entry, “Percentage by which the $750 billion bailout exceeds the total U.S. GDP of a century ago, adjusted for inflation: 50.” Naturally, I am confused as to what in the hell this actually means since there are so many variables, including traveling through time, and it looks like it means that the GDP of a century ago was an inflation-adjusted $500 billion, but that involves math, and so I can’t be sure of anything. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 6 February, 2009
Hard to believe Obama is already knee-deep in ethical muck. Even Maureen Dowd has gone on the attack, albeit with 28-ounce gloves: “Obama [was telling schoolchildren] his favorite superheroes were Batman and Spiderman,” the New York Times’ third-ranking Bush-hater wrote on Thursday, but “his own dream of being the superhero who swoops in to swiftly save America was going SPLAT.” Is the honeymoon already over, the huge Inaugural throng on the D.C. mall just a faded memory? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 5 February, 2009
Today, dear reader, we’re going to let you in on a big secret. Pssst…we’re in a depression, not a recession. As we explained yesterday, economists have no sure way of separating the two. But they are profoundly different. In the few words that follow, we’ll explain why…and why this one deserves the “D” and not the “R.” Full Story
The gold price has finally disconnected from its nemesis, the USDollar. This news should be read as the coming of spring after months of wintry torment, or as the sighting of land after 30 days adrift at sea in a derelict vessel. From 2002 to very early 2008, the gold price had risen from the massive speculative fervor that swept the United States and Europe, whose economies had been supplied largely by Asian factories. Full Story
Calling the situation a liquidity trap is a misnomer. America, and now the rest of the world, is in an insolvency (not liquidity) trap. Banks don't want to lend to bankrupt consumers and businesses any longer became for years there was too much liquidity, and they’ve already borrowed more than they can ever pay back. Full Story
OF SIX CENTRAL BANKS voting on interest rates this week, only the European Central Bank in Frankfurt failed to reduce its cost of money to either record or multi-year lows, holding rates steady at 2.0%. Full Story
For over 18 months most junior mining stocks have put in an absolutely terrible performance. The chart for the CDNX index, which best represents junior gold miners as it is made of about 500 stocks most of which are mining stocks, makes this abundantly clear - and many investors in the sector will not of course need reminding of this. Full Story
Let's take a look at one of the more popular gold market indicators, the HUI-Gold ratio, which is often a leading indicator for the gold sector. Because it is so popular, there are lots of people looking at it, which of course means that you and I are not the only geniuses trying to gain an edge in this market. We all see the same thing, but do we all interpret it the same? Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 5 February, 2009
Madame Speaker, I rise to introduce legislation to restore financial stability to America's economy by abolishing the Federal Reserve. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, middle and working-class Americans have been victimized by a boom-and-bust monetary policy. In addition, most Americans have suffered a steadily eroding purchasing power because of the Federal Reserve's inflationary policies. This represents a real, if hidden, tax imposed on the American people. Full Story
Some readers may ask themselves, “What has gold to do with protecting jobs? Gold hoarders are certainly not creating jobs, and hoarding more gold will not help at all.” Gold has everything to do with the loss of jobs in the US, and gold has everything to do with recovering jobs for the US economy. Full Story
By: John Browne, Chief Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 5 February, 2009
This week, seven major corporations announced major layoffs, adding 72,000 to the unemployed. At the same time, lending by the big banks fell. With falling demand for loans, it is little wonder that President Obama described the national economic situation as “worsening day by day.” Clearly, we are heading into a deepening and severe recession that is spreading worldwide. Full Story
The following conversation between two top U.S. economists was recently overheard at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. For obvious reasons, their names have been withheld - they will be referred to here as Lloyd and Harry. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 5 February, 2009
I’m a buyer when oil prices dip under $40. I’ve been an even bigger buyer when oil dropped below $35. I’m hoping – and patiently waiting – for oil to drop below $30 a barrel. That’ll be the time to really load up. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 5 February, 2009
Frank Holmes at USFunds.com writes, “When it comes to the global economy, there’s a huge surplus of bad news and there’s a good chance that more is coming” – so much so that “Positive indicators are in short supply” which he qualifies by saying, “but there’s a good chance that more of these are coming, too.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 5 February, 2009
We searched in vain for news that might have explained why Bank of America shares collapsed 15% from their highs yesterday. After a head-fake on the opening, the stock fell 67 cents to 4.68, bringing it that much closer to the vanishing point. We are predicting BAC will fall even lower in the days ahead, to at least 3.93. That would represent a decline of 90% since the stock was added to the Dow Industrial Average a year ago. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 4 February, 2009
Paris, France Today we turn our attention to the world’s most privileged outcasts. “Once envied, Wall Street bankers are now mocked,” says a headline at the International Herald Tribune. So many people are getting on the bankers’ case; we’re beginning to feel sorry for them. After all, what did they do wrong? Full Story
Gold stocks are supposed to have more leverage than the gold price – otherwise why own them? There is a generally accepted, unwritten rule that gold stocks should move 3:1 with gold – so if gold is up 1%, gold stocks as a group should be up 3%. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 4 February, 2009
One man emailed me to express his dismay that his friend said that Gold has no intrinsic value; that it's value is only a "perceived" value. Well, no surprise, that's what they teach people in college these days. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 February, 2009
We say it is insane to target asset prices, rig all stocks, forex and commodity markets, to suppress prices in one area and increase them in another. It is insane to bailout banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies and select elitist transnational corporations. It is insane to borrow and print money and credit to support prices in the debt securitization marketplace. It is insane to try to bail out one quadrillion dollars worth of derivatives. There is no way you can reverse a black hole. $100 trillion won’t resuscitate the system. Full Story
In the debate about what went wrong with the economy and how to fix things, the topic of loose credit standards usually arises early in the discussion. And correctly so. Due to loose credit standards, people without the financial resources to own a home were practically carried across the threshold by predatory lenders. Full Story
By: James West, The Midas Letter - 4 February, 2009
This morning, the United States Treasury Department issued a press release that constituted the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee’s (TBAC) report to the Secretary of the Treasury. TBAC membership is derived from senior members of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. These would be the proverbial foxes advising the chickens - a favorite Midas Letter theme. Full Story
The recently launched DSAM Kauthar Gold Fund, seeded with $50 million by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre invests exclusively in the Tocqueville Gold Focus Fund. John Hathaway is the veteran portfolio manager of the top-performing Tocqueville Gold Focus Fund. Full Story
The only thing that is keeping this from creating mass inflation is the decision of commercial bankers to deposit the bulk of this increase with the Federal Reserve. The banks are not lending out this money. Neither is the FED. This money does not legally belong to the FED. Full Story
Hyperinflation in the U.S. hasn’t happened for quite some time. The last two instances that come to mind are confederate money in the 1860s and the continentals in the 1770s. In both these cases, governments used inflation to finance wars because their tax systems were weak. Full Story
Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks? Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Peter Grandich - 4 February, 2009
Breaking away briefly from his recent blogging, the veteran Wall Street watcher and investment advisor tells The Gold Report readers what he likes looking forward—gold (up to $1,000) and oil (between $35 and $40). Also high on his list: uranium (for the nuclear renaissance), junior miners (a select few), and Canadian banks (pretty much all of them). Full Story
I’m convinced that big profits are coming in gold and silver; and most likely in the precious metal and commodity stocks as well. Of the three, I consider physical gold to be the safest. $1300 gold this year is very doable. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 4 February, 2009
James Turk of GoldMoney.com has penned “Restoring Sound Money in America”, which makes me cry out in despair when one considers the fraud of the Federal Reserve’s constantly increasing amounts of fiat currency and credit, a corrupt and complicit Congress that condones it, a despicable Supreme Court which allows it all (by negating Article 1, Section 10 of the Constitution mandating that gold will be money), and the legions of people (Wall Street, Congress and the bankers) to whom a sound, non-inflating currency means the end of their loathsome, corrupt businesses and speculative excesses. Full Story
Here, I'll simplify it: your government, through Legal Tender laws, is forcing you to use dollars to navigate the economy in which you reside. It is then printing this currency with reckless abandon. Finally, the same government is issuing more debt than ever before in history, which it will loan to itself (or borrow from itself, depending on how you look at it) by employing the nearly innumerable dollars it has printed. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 3 February, 2009
“If you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit,” warned Sir Josiah Stamp, former chief of the Bank of England in 1927. Indeed, the world economy is now held hostage by an elite banking cartel, whose reckless pursuit of speculation and bloated profits, has precipitated a breakdown of the global financial system, and is plunging the world towards a “Great Depression.” Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 3 February, 2009
We have it from our usually unreliable source in Washington that Gideon Gono, now head of the Zimbabwean central bank, has been called in to aid the Obama Administration. In secret talks, Gono has agreed to replace the out-going Ben Bernanke, who is said to be going to work as a helicopter pilot. Gono will take over the Fed. And a new bill has already been designed – our source was able to sneak out a copy of the new note – for 1 million U.S. dollars. That’s Gideon Gono’s picture on it. Full Story
Further to last week's essay, gold-backed money retained its real value for 350 years all told in the United States and Great Britain. It's only just clawed back to that level for investors today. Full Story
By: Theodore Butler and Israel Friedman - 3 February, 2009
The prices lately are artificial, produced by the one or two big short sellers. As long they can satisfy the market with physical silver, they will be able to control prices with their paper short sales. But watch out when they will lose control and then you will become rich by holding silver. This loss of control can happen on any day with no prior notice. Don’t think you can predict it. Just prepare and be ready for it. Full Story
Peru is the nineteenth largest country in the world and is a diverse land, both in terms of people and geography. It is populated by over 29.2 million people (July 2008 estimate), largely descended from Spanish settlers, native Inca, and pre-Inca cultures. Peru has three national languages: Spanish, Aymara, and the native Quechua, reflecting the native Indian and Spanish roots that cultivated modern Peruvian society. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 3 February, 2009
I have recently had several opportunities on various news programs to discuss the economy and what is wrong with the so-called economic stimulus package. I have said over and over what we shouldn’t be doing, and now I’d like to explain what we should be doing. Full Story
Last week the U.S. Congress did us all a favor. $Gold rose by about $40 due to their efforts. What did they do? Well, the U.S. Congress voted to risk another depression by including a “Buy American” clause in what is mistakenly referred to as an economic stimulus plan. That clause bars the purchase of imported iron and steel. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 3 February, 2009
For many years we have been expecting inflation (growth in the supply of money) and nothing but inflation as far as the eye can see, but there have been times, such as the past 12 months, when we have felt more affinity with deflation forecasters than with most other inflation forecasters. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 3 February, 2009
It was a pretty brutal week for the markets. But here’s the thing, Dreman didn’t seem too worried. I’d even go as far to say he was upbeat. Why wasn’t Dreman too worried? You see, he’s the contrarian’s contrarian. Some call him the “dean” of contrarian investing. He literally wrote the book on contrarian investing – Contrarian Investment Strategy - back in the late 70’s. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 3 February, 2009
From census.gov we get the news that retail and food services sales were down a huge 2.7% in December compared with sales in November, and sales were down “9.8 percent below December 2007.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 February, 2009
We took on the conventional wisdom of Gary North here yesterday because we are living in unconventional times. This isn’t the Eisenhower era, for sure, and we don’t expect the dire economic troubles that have come to dominate the news, if not yet our individual lives, to simply melt away over time. Full Story
As world leaders gathered over this past week for their annual wine-and-cheese ski-fest in Davos, Switzerland – perhaps we, the little people, should all take-stock [or a forensic account, perhaps?] of the cards we’ve been dealt. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 2 February, 2009
On Friday, the Dow lost 148 points. But gold gained $20. The ratio of gold to the Dow tells us that either stocks have much further to fall…or gold has much further to increase. We’re looking for a ratio of one to one. At its peak in 2000, you needed 43 ounces of gold to buy the Dow stocks. Now you need only about 10. Still a way to go. Most likely, the Dow will fall …and meet the price of gold on the way up…at about 3,000. Full Story
Investment bankers smell a big run up in the gold price coming. They are raising money for gold companies like there is no tomorrow. Look at some of the money pouring into the sector right now: Full Story
I read in the newspapers that you want to stimulate the American economy. I know more than any of your economic advisors, and I can tell you how to stimulate the economy. I also read that you are a Democrat and that you favor change. This is a good start. The Democratic Party was founded by Andrew Jackson and Martin van Buren in 1828. They also favored change, and they wanted to stimulate the economy. This they did by abolishing the central bank (the Second Bank of the United States). Full Story
The prospect of the United States defaulting on its debt is not just likely. Its inevitable, and imminent. The regulatory black holes into which sanity and reason disappear on a daily basis are soon to collapse under the mass of their sheer size. The circle jerk going on among G7 governments has to end – the steady advance of gold, even in the face of a managed price, exposes the real value of the U.S. dollar, as opposed to its apparent value expressed in the dollar index. Full Story
The terrible price action in the stock market raises the question, ‘are we on the right track expecting seasonals and the multiple post-crash historical patterns that have proven reliable in forecasting higher prices moving forward from here to repeat; or, is the market condition so far advanced that these things are known by the investing population, potentially altering the outcome?’ Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 2 February, 2009
Presented by Ron Paul at "Our Enemy, Inflation," the Mises Circle in Houston, sponsored by Jeremy S. Davis. Recorded Saturday, 24 January 2009. Full Story
The Obama administration promises us a program of forced lending by banks. By this means, they intend to promote economic recovery. Amazing as it seems, our major officials do not understand that forced lending by banks severely undermines an economy. Subsidizing loans will destroy the market for bank credit. Bank credit will no longer be allocated by rational means of comparing real costs to real benefits. The results will be to harm many people and worsen the structure of the U.S. economy. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 2 February, 2009
At one extreme, when the GSR hits 15 at the climax of a multi decade silver bull market (as in 1964-1980) it is time to seriously think about selling. When the other extreme is hit and silver is suffering in a deflationary bust, it is nigh on time to buy such as 1993 when the GSR hit 100 (only the second time in 200 years that such an event occurred). At a current value of 73 things may seem oversold for silver in GSR terms and one would have a justification for that looking at the 14 year chart below (silver price in red). Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 2 February, 2009
If anyone had any doubt about the enormity of the financial crisis gripping the world, look no further than at the amazing conversion of Canadian Prime Minister Stephan Harper and his Finance Minister Jim Flaherty from small c, small government, fiscal conservatives to big spending, big government, deficit hawks. This is not a comment on the actual merits of the budget; merely a note that Harper and Flaherty have joined the bailout world, even if it seems to be with some reluctance. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 February, 2009
In the Inflation vs. Deflation debate, Gary North has come up with this grabber-of-a- headline: “If Deflation Is Coming, Sell Your Gold,” he writes at LewRockwell.com. If North is trying to scare deflationists into abandoning their arguments, giving banner play to such bad advice should only make them snicker and hoot. For in fact, deflation is already here in spades, in the form of a financial implosion that has wiped at least $80 trillion dollars worth of “wealth” from the world’s books. And in the midst of this, of course, gold has performed superbly for investors. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. 2nd Hour: Kevin Kerr, Kerr Trading International Full Story
The governments around the world are trying to take initiative while private capital is sitting on the sidelines, preferring the safety of government bonds and precious metals. Investors typically do not trust the governments to implement any effective economic solutions. Moreover, this lack of faith in central planning continues to grow since the US government has no other plan of action than to save the old, compromised and untrustworthy financial system. Full Story
The past few months have been absolutely crazy in the financial markets. Financial advisors and banks are taking a beating from both the market condition and clients as individuals around the world are losing 30+ of their investments. We have seen oil prices drop over $110 per barrel from the high (73% decline), and the US dollar tumbled down to 71 and rebounded to 88 (23% gain) all in the mater of months. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 1 February, 2009
The banking sector continues to deteriorate at a rapid pace and you’d think by talking to banks, insurance companies and Wall Street that nothing was wrong. We may have a new National Bank financed by $200 billion from TARP and $300 billion from the Fed, which would create those funds out of thin air in the furtherance of the Ponzi scheme. The government may take common stock rather than preferred stock, or they may take convertible bonds. It is now evident all the legacy money center banks are insolvent. Full Story
The debate over inflation versus deflation has been going on in hard money circles since about 1973. The debate has gone on within academic circles for well over a century. The economists are as confused as the general public, but they are confused in a far more sophisticated way. They turn confusion into a science. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 1 February, 2009
This week we are going to do something a little different. I am in Bermuda taking a little weekend R&R after a speech, as well as working on my book. There is not the time for the usual letter this week, but I have asked Barry Ritholtz to write about his new trading program, FusionIQ, for reasons I will talk about below. Full Story
The below article beautifully illustrates a concept I have highlighted for years, in other words the horrific outlook for future gold production. Before reading the article, which shows how gold production has been in decline for decades with little (read: no) hope for improvement, look at this graph, which shows that, amazingly, despite a now ten-year bull market, global gold production has fallen nearly every year since its commencement! Full Story
This January was one of the worst on record for financial markets. US Treasuries crashed after enjoying a recession-beating run in 2008. Gold and silver were the only major asset class to end the month higher. Hedge funds that previously ignored precious metals have become converts, with hedge fund star Greenlight Capital buying the yellow metal for the first time. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 1 February, 2009
Basically, if (or when) the Senators play the hero role and arbitrarily increase the amount of infrastructure spending in the bill, there could be another pop in infrastructure stocks. At that time, it’d probably be a good opportunity to stand up and say the market’s wrong. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 February, 2009
The AP news service reports that “The federal government already has run up a record deficit of $485.2 billion in just the first three months of the current budget year”, which is “more than four times the $108.8 billion in red ink recorded during the year-ago period.” Full Story
Gold was up $30.70 to close at $928.40 (continuous contract) for a +3.42% weekly gain. This was impressive considering the dollar continued to rally (ever so slightly +0.43%). Full Story
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