Gold suffered a sharp pullback this past month, spawning bearish sentiment. Futures speculators fled on surging Fed-rate-hike odds and new stock-market record highs. That pounded gold lower despite strong investment demand. This healthy sentiment-rebalancing retreat has left gold ready to rally again. Both its technicals and seasonals are very bullish, and futures speculators’ selling overhang has considerably abated. Full Story
James Rickards makes his show debut, author of The New Case for Gold, the private placement, MERAGLIM and the James Rickards Project. As a key negotiator in the 1998 LTCM bailout and advisor to the DoD / CIA / Los Alamos, James Rickards outlines sophisticated analytical models. Bayes' Theorem, a conditional analysis method facilitates forecasting the tipping point / phase transition of highly complex systems. The global financial system nearly imploded in 1998, then again in 2008; his models suggest that by 2018 a new financial fiasco could materialize. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with an update on the Bitcoin phenomenon. For the first time in economic history, the masses have a chance to grab the reigns of the money supply, central banks are no longer required. While institutions such as JP Morgan spread negative rhetoric on the cryptocurrencies, many continue to secretly accumulate vast stockpiles. Full Story
Last week, both Janet Yellen of the Fed and Mark Carney of the Bank of England prepared financial markets for interest rate increases. The working assumption should be that this was coordinated, and that both the ECB and the Bank of Japan must be considering similar moves. Full Story
Since Trump was elected we noticed something interesting; economic news seems to have less of an impact than Geopolitical developments. Polarisation has had the effect it was intended to trigger; the masses and the markets are focusing on the wrong issues, and so we can expect a slew of legislation favouring the corporate world to be passed with little to no resistance. This, in turn, will help push stocks even higher as corporations will have even less to worry regarding being liable for using questionable methods to boost their earnings. Full Story
As the stock market continues to rise on the back of some of the worst geopolitical, financial, and domestic news, the U.S. Treasury has been quietly increasing the amount of government debt, with virtually no coverage by the Mainstream or Alternative Media. So, how much has the U.S. debt increased in the past few days? A bunch. Full Story
A series of eight articles covering the Chinese Gold Market has recently been added to BullionStar’s Gold University portal. This series is titled “Chinese Gold Market Essentials”. Links to all 8 articles can be found on the left-hand frame of the Gold University pages under Research on the BullionStar desktop site, and under the “Chinese Gold Essentials” section of the Gold University, under Research on the BullionStar mobile site. Full Story
Last week the XIV broke back over the previous all-time high of 96.91. This move came after the XIV experienced the largest corrective move since September of 2016. Although the previous highs were broken, the move up off of the August lows still has what can be viewed as an incomplete pattern. This potentially incomplete pattern is leaving the door open to several scenarios over the course of the next several weeks. Full Story
The late stages of financial bubbles are always tough for rational analysts. Focused as they are on the numbers, such analysts are relatively immune to the emotion that drives the action at market extremes, so they find themselves making predictions that turn out to be “wrong” for months and sometimes years. Full Story
With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble… In early 2013 we noted a progression that would go on to birth the current economic expansion and stock market boom (of course, I didn’t come close to envisioning the extent of the boom that followed). I’ve belabored it often since, but here’s the short version of the progression yet again… Full Story
James Rickards, author of The New Case for Gold, the private placement, MERAGLIM and The James Rickards Project, marks his show debut. As a key negotiator in the 1998 LTCM bailout and advisor to the DoD / CIA / Los Alamos, James Rickards outlines sophisticated analytical models. Bayes Theorem, a conditional analysis method facilitates forecasting the tipping point / phase transition of highly complex systems. Full Story
American manufacturers grew at their fastest pace since May 2004 in September, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Manufacturing activity, as measured by the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), expanded for the 100th straight month, climbing to a 13-year high of 60.8. The higher above 50, the more rapid the acceleration. Full Story
We now ask how much higher can the Dow go prior to seeing a significant retracement as we enter the final quarter of 2017? The past month has not been filled with good and or happy news. We have seen three major hurricanes make landfall on U.S. soil, terror attacks both in the U.S and in abroad, missile launches over Japan from North Korea, more failed attempts to pass legislation in Washington and an FBI raid on President Trump’s campaign manager. Any of these events could have very easily been used by the media as the “reason” for a drop in the markets. Full Story
I gave a presentation to some corporate board members recently, and they had one primary question on their mind. Why is overall gold demand weak? These are smart people. They’re successful, both professionally and with their investments. They even believe in owning a little gold. But they’ve been puzzled by the significant drop in demand for physical metal. They had some ideas, which were mostly right, but their main concern was if they were overlooking some critical factor that was making other investors ignore gold. Full Story
Gold and the dollar are often referred to as safe havens in the same breath, but what these numbers tell us is that – at least for now – gold increasingly has become the safe haven of choice. It is too early to know whether or not the across-the-board uptrend in gold will continue, but it is worth noting and monitoring. Clearly, significant capital is finding its way to the gold market globally and we suspect that institutional investors and funds have played the dominant role. Full Story
So there you have it. A clear breakout to all-time highs confirmed by every measure everywhere with momentum charging ahead and high-fives and champagne corks flying about with reckless abandon and serial glee. To quote Chuck Prince, who left Citigroup in 2007 with an exit bonus of around $12.5 million, $68 million in stock and options, $1.7 million pension, an office, a car and a driver for five years during which time Citigroup shed $64 BILLION in valuation, "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." Full Story
The world’s Central Banks have finally succeeded in unleashing an inflationary storm. The first pickup has only just begun to be felt. But this time next year, when inflation is well north of 4% globally and the big price moves have already occurred, everyone will be screaming “INFLATION!” How did this happen? Full Story
Many of you have noted through the years that you simply do not understand how our analysis methodology works. Yes, it can be more complex than most other forms of analysis, but it is also often more reliable and accurate in identifying targets and trends. As an example, where we have used it at the end of 2015 to call for a drop in the market from the 2100 region down to the 1800 region, to set up a rally to the 2500 region. Yet, many still view it as a form of “voodoo.” Full Story
I will end with an offer. Monetary Metals has nearly 3 terabytes of data, containing every COMEX futures and spot metal price in both gold and silver going back 21 years. If you have another specific explanation of how JP Morgan manipulates the market (and which is not invalidated by the graphs above), let’s work to design an experiment. We are happy to query the appropriate data, and publish a graph or graphs that can confirm or disprove your hypothesis. Full Story
Last week, I got several calls asking me how U.S. tax reform will impact the price of gold. If you can answer this question, you might be able to answer how tax reform will impact other assets. Let me explain. If you were to analyze the impact of any tax changes on any asset, you have two sets of dynamics to consider: those of the tax reform and those of the asset. What makes the comparison to gold unique is that gold is, if I may call it such, the purest of all assets because it doesn’t change. It is the world around it that changes. Full Story
Many precious metals investors are starting to question whether gold and silver are still the best store of wealth in the future. The reason Alternative Media community is starting to have doubts about their gold and silver investments is due to the rapidly rising value of the cryptocurrency market. Also, a number of precious metals analysts have jumped ship and are now only supporting the cryptocurrencies as the next best thing since sliced bread. Full Story
Jacob Hornberger recently posted an article discussing his reasons why he considers the advent of the US national security state to be the worst thing the government has ever done. Bad as they are, the income tax, the federal reserve act, and government schooling don’t come close. His reason: The US national security state has “the power to kill Americans (and others) without risk of any criminal or civil liability. . . . All that US officials have to do is relate the killing to ‘national security’ and that’s the end of the matter.” Full Story
Twenty years ago Doug Noland was so worried about imbalances surrounding the dot.com boom that he began to title his weekly reports “The Credit Bubble Bulletin. Years later, he warned the world about the impending 2008 crisis. However a coming implosion, he says, could be the biggest yet. “We are in a global finance bubble, which I call the grand-daddy of all bubbles,” said Noland. “Economists can’t see it. They can’t model money and credit. However, to those outside the system, the facts are increasingly clear.” Full Story
I sat down with David Morgan, The Morgan Report, to get his take on this forever changing oil/yuan/gold contract story that seems to have taken on life of it’s own. We have reported, on multiple occasions, that we can not find anything of substance to support this idea/concept/contract. The implications of this contract being a reality would change the monetary world over night. The implications of this contract coming to fruition could possibly spark World War III – it’s that serious. Full Story
Since I issued my “book profits now” call for gold several weeks ago, the price has declined relentlessly from the $1360 area high. Investors want to know if I see signs that a fresh rally could begin. The good news is that gold/silver stocks and silver bullion look better than gold bullion. Some stocks are rallying strongly while gold oozes lower. Full Story
Though Comex metal "delivery" remains a sham and circle jerk where The Banks simply shuffle paper warehouse receipts and warrants, we thought the latest totals for September were noteworthy enough to bring them to your attention. Again, we've written about this on countless occasions and this post is not meant to imply that "the Comex is about to break" or that "there is a run on The Banks". Instead, September saw the continuation of two trends of which you need to be aware. Comex "deliveries" are up dramatically in 2017 and JPM continues to stand down. Full Story
The U.S. Mint is on track for the lowest sales of American Eagle coins in almost a decade. The 2008 financial crisis began a historic ramp up in sales that lasted for years. 20,583,000 silver American Eagles sold that year, more than double the 2007 total of 9,028,036 coins. Full Story
There are five identical bags of gold, and each contains ten gold coins. However, one of the five bags contains fake gold. The real gold, fake gold, and five bags appear identical, except the coins of fake gold each weigh 1.1 ounces, and the real gold coins each weigh 1 ounce. You have an accurate digital scale and CAN USE IT ONLY ONCE. Full Story
Summer closed in a whirlwind of weather chaos for the United States and its territories. At the start of the summer, the US economy began to show signs that it was flying apart. The two most obvious were the big blowouts in the auto industry and in retail, not all of which could be attributed to a shift to online sales. Full Story
The precious metals sector started September with a bang. Gold, which had already eclipsed $1300/oz, pushed to $1360/oz while Silver broke its downtrend line (from its late 2012 and 2016 peaks). Unfortunately, precious metals would soon reverse course and more. Gold ended September down nearly 3% and below $1300/oz. Silver lost 5% and its breakout. The gold mining indices (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) lost 7% to 8%. The monthly charts argue the major breakout from multi-year bottoming patterns will have to wait until 2018 at the soonest. Full Story
The stock markets are just beginning their vertical phase of this bull market. The SPX has broken above its intermediate trend channel. Weekly charts of the DJIA, Russell, Transports, Banks, and the Dollar are featured. Full Story
All the different stock market indexes have now broken out above the top rail of their rising patterns except for the two tech indexes. The IWC, micro caps, continues to be the strongest sector. I know it may not feel like it, but rising wedges and flags that slope up in the same direction of the uptrend tells us the uptrend is very strong. Full Story
The biggest problem of all, though, is that the Laffer Curve is downright dangerous to the extent that it seemingly removes the need to implement cuts in government spending to fund cuts in taxes. Thanks to the support provided by this bogus curve, unscrupulous and/or ignorant politicians can promote tax-cutting plans that have no offsetting spending cuts based on the idea that lower tax rates will eventually bring about a counter-balancing increase in tax revenue. The potential result is a tax-cutting plan that quickens the pace at which private-sector savings are siphoned to the government, that is, a tax-cutting plan that leads to slower economic progress. Full Story
As I’ve explained before, our firm uses quantamentals in our gold investing process, combining old-fashioned, bottom-up stock picking with big data and machine learning. This allows us to screen for the best possible producers with the most attractive balance sheets. We prefer miners that have a proven track record of sustainable profitability even when precious metal prices are down. Full Story
I caught a good interview by Charlie Rose on Bloomberg TV the other night of Ray Dalio, founder and head of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with some $150 billion in assets under management. Dalio has been making the rounds recently in promoting his new book, “Principles”, in which he lays out his beliefs for the investment business and the business of life. Now in book form, Dalio previously offered his work for free and which was downloaded more than three million times. For very good reason, when Dalio speaks, he is listened to even more than EF Hutton. Full Story
We have watched for years as China grew in strength economically, financially and militarily. They have pre positioned themselves by making trade deals, setting up credit facilities and even an alternative clearing system to the West’s “SWIFT”. We also know China has been gobbling up global mine supply of gold for going on 10 years now. As I’ve written in the past, just using the back of a napkin, it can be surmised they now have hoarded 20,000 tons or more compared to the “supposed” 8,133 tons held by the U.S. Full Story
Last month, we warned about the upcoming decline in gold and while there were many factors pointing to a decline in September, there was one development that stood out in terms of significance and clarity – the record monthly volume in gold. In today’s analysis, we are going to discuss the monthly gold chart once again as the analogy just became even more important. In order to check what’s in store for the gold price in October 2017, let’s take a look at the details. Full Story
Up until this point, Central Banks have been rigging the markets indirectly by attempting to corner the bond market via QE and interest rates. In the simplest of terms, these policies forced investors to put capital into stocks and other risk assets in order to seek higher returns. As such these were indirect market rigs in that they didn’t involve Central Banks actively funneling money STRAIGHT into the financial markets. Full Story
The best performing precious metal this week was palladium, up 1.67 percent. Palladium prices rose above platinum prices on expectations there may be a surge in gasoline engines from China before clamp downs on their use comes into effect. Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg maintained their bearish bias for a third week despite North Korean tensions escalating after our military show of force last weekend with fly-by of their airspace. Full Story
By: Mike Gleason and David Morgan - 2 October, 2017
Too much optimism. Sentiment really changed from ... and especially in the silver market. There's a small market. It seems as if, from my experience, which is 40 years, that the silver folks are a little more volatile than the gold folks, just like the metals themselves. And so you can go from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism in silver, very rapidly. And that's what took place, generally speaking, over the last few months. We saw, gold unable to breach the $1,300 level. Once it did, it was a quick trade, if you were nimble enough. And if you could only capture $50, then so be it. Full Story
We have covered many reasons why bitcoin is unsound and not money. It’s a ledger of unbacked liabilities. It is designed to have finite quantity but therefore indeterminate and hence volatile value. This makes it unusable for borrowing or lending and hence savings, but a great a vehicle for conversion of one person’s wealth into another’s income. It is not a commodity—discussion of the usefulness of the network notwithstanding—nor is it backed by a commodity or any asset. Full Story
Nick Barisheff of Bullion Management Group (BMG) and author of $10,000 Gold: Why Gold's Inevitable Rise Is the Investor's Safe Haven (2013) returns. Our guest shares positive comments on the precious metals sector. Martin Armstrong was once a US based trillion dollar financial advisor, developed a computer model based on the number pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy. In the early 80s he established his financial forecasting and advising company Princeton Economics. Full Story
Donald Trump has dominated the headlines since he announced he was going to run to become President of the United States. Love him or hate him (there seems to be little in between), there is no doubt of his dominance in the headlines. From “grab her by the pussy” to “fire those sons of bitches” to “totally destroy” another country, whatever he says (or tweets) grabs headlines with both cheering and derision. There is little doubt about his impact today on the USA and the world for that matter, both good and bad. He is and has become the “Great Divider”. His approval rating quickly fell below 40% and has remained there ever since. One has to go back to the brief Presidency of Gerald Ford to find such a low approval rating so early on. Full Story
Today we’ll continue to size up the bull market in governmental promises. As we do so, keep an old trader’s slogan in mind: “That which cannot go on forever, won’t.” Or we could say it differently: An unsustainable trend must eventually stop. Lately I have focused on the trend in US public pension funds, many of which are woefully underfunded and will never be able to pay workers the promised benefits, at least without dumping a huge and unwelcome bill on taxpayers. And since taxpayers are generally voters, it’s not at all clear they will pay that bill. Full Story
Featuring charts produced by the GOLD CHARTS R US market chart website, the BullionStar chart series focuses on a number of the world's most important physical gold markets including China, Russia, India, Switzerland and the London gold market, and provides background and commentary on the selected charts. Full Story
While Americans continue to believe that the U.S. will become energy independent, the county’s second largest shale oil field is seeing a drop in production due to a rising decline rate. The Eagle Ford Region in Texas experienced an increase in production as the oil price, and drilling activity increased since the beginning of 2016. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
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