By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 6 January, 2017
The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again after suffering a rough few months. Following sharp selloffs on gold-futures stops being run, the Trumphoria stock-market surge, and a more-hawkish-than-expected Fed, this battered sector had largely been left for dead. But gold stocks’ strong fundamentals finally overcame the dismal herd sentiment last week, paving the way for this sector to shine again in 2017. Full Story
In December 2016 Chinese wholesale gold demand, measured by withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), accounted for 196 tonnes, down 9 % from November. December was still a strong month for SGE withdrawals due to the fact the gold price trended lower before briefly spiking at the end of the month, and the Chinese prefer to buy gold when the price declines (see exhibit 1). Full Story
The fiat money quantityi has now breached the $15 trillion level, standing at $15,108bn on November 1st 2016, the last calculable date. This is now $6.3 trillion above the pre-Lehman crisis trend-line, exceeding it by 72%. Instead of the Lehman rescue being a temporary fix, the increase in the quantity of fiat money has continued to grow over eight years later. Full Story
How can we summarize the last year in the gold market? First of all, it was a mixed year for gold. The first half of 2016 was excellent for the yellow metal. Actually, the several-month long bull market in gold started in December 2015, when the shiny metal found a bottom at $1,049, after the FOMC historical meeting and the first interest rate hike for almost a decade. Full Story
Gold is now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. Bearish sentiment at the recent bottom was among the most extreme readings we have seen in the past 40 years. This should be the fuel to drive a really big rally. Full Story
Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company says the recent correction has cleared the skittish, speculative crowd, presenting a valuation opportunity. In 2016, the PM sector performed solidly - silver added 14%, gold 10% and the XAU gold / silver shares advanced over 63%. Due to the marked improvement in the supply / demand environment, the PMs markets are primed for better performance. Full Story
With regard to the manipulation of precious metals, if you want to kill a snake, you have to cut off its head. Similarly, if you want to end precious metals manipulation, you need to destroy the BIS. The directive and authority to manipulate the metals comes from the mother of all Central Banks. JP Morgan is the BIS’ chief agent in executing the directive. Deutsche Bank was given explicit instructions to omit all references to JP Morgan from its superficial mea culpa. Full Story
The election of Donald Trump is what makes this year different. Many people are optimistic about the prospects for a major infrastructure program, tax cuts, and less regulation. Investors are ready to take on risk. Since the election, they have been mostly getting out of safe haven assets such as bonds and gold, while paying top dollar for stocks. The rub is that Trump has yet to assume office. The expectations are high and, frankly, something has to give. Trump might deliver a big infrastructure program and some tax relief. However, that would spell trouble for the current dollar rally as people anticipate ballooning deficits and borrowing. Full Story
Gold’s rally, which took off in earnest a week ago, signaled more to come on Thursday when it pushed above two prior peaks on the daily chart (see inset). This indicates a new and healthy trend, according to the proprietary Hidden Pivot Method that we use to trade and forecast the markets. Notice that with just a little more oomph, the March contract could surpass two additional ‘external’ peaks on the daily chart (see inset). That would put them within a few ticks of tripping a theoretical ‘buy’ signal, shifting our focus, if not yet our expectations, to the 1434.80 target. Full Story
Iron ore and zinc were the best performing commodities on the face of the planet in 2016. Iron finished up 81%, its first calendar gain in four years. Meanwhile, zinc shot up 65.7% on the year as major zinc mines shut down, and supply stockpiles dwindled. Not all energy-related commodities could be so lucky. Uranium continued its epic nosedive, losing -41.6% on the year. U3O8 now trades for $20.25/lb, a tiny fraction of its previous highs of over $100/lb in 2007. Full Story
Gold is 13 days into its daily cycle. At some point soon there will be a dip into a half cycle low. That will be the next opportunity to buy long. Full Story
Through it’s central bank, the People’s Republic of China holds the world’s 6th largest central bank gold holdings, with over 1800 tonnes of gold held in its official reserves of the People’s Bank of China. These gold reserves holdings are notable for having quadrupled since the early 2000s amid much secrecy. Since mid 2015, however, the Chinese government has embarked on a revised communication policy of releasing monthly updates on the size of its gold holdings. Although there is no official confirmation of gold storage arrangements, it is thought that the Chinese official gold reserves are vaulted in Beijing, China’s capital, and may be under the protection of the Chinese army. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 4 January, 2017
The problem is that gold, an international reserve currency, is powerfully connected to all other markets. Manipulate the gold price and you manipulate all currency values. Manipulate all currency values and you manipulate the price of everything valued in currencies. That covers just about everything except maybe your dog's affections. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 4 January, 2017
The cable reads: "The major impact of private U.S. ownership, according to the dealers' expectations, will be the formation of a sizable gold futures market. Each of the dealers expressed the belief that the futures market would be of significant proportion and physical trading would be miniscule by comparison. Also expressed was the expectation that large-volume futures dealing would create a highly volatile market. In turn, the volatile price movements would diminish the initial demand for physical holding and most likely negate long-term hoarding by U.S. citizens." Full Story
Last weekend, I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly. Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions. But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet. Full Story
I’m starting this at 8:30 PM MST Tuesday, in my eerily quiet house – as Sylvie is sleeping, Diana is teaching, and Giselle sits by my feet, waiting for her next snack. I’ll finish tomorrow morning, as I don’t want to miss a beat – in a rapidly changing world, chock full of Precious Metal bullish, everything-else-bearish headlines. Which I’ll simply start by saying – have no fear, I have not sold a single ounce of Precious Metals! Conversely, I hold more than ever before – at roughly 75% of my liquid net worth, a higher percentage than perhaps 90% of the world’s denizens; and likely, 99% of the Western world. To the contrary, I’ve simply re-organized my portfolio, as I’ve done dozens of times throughout my investment career. Full Story
Trump promised to “drain the swamp.” That was nothing more than a clever marketing slogan adopted by Trump’s team to galvanize the majority of Americans who felt betrayed by the Democrats, led by Obama, who beginning on day one back-pedaled and repudiated the policy platform on which he campaigned (anyone besides me recall these promises: “I’ll close Guantanomo in the first 90 days” and “I’ll eliminate the use of Executive Orders” and “I’ll repeal all of Bush’s surveillance Executive Orders”). Full Story
It has now been 42 years since The Global Bankers successfully alchemized gold through the advent of futures trading so we begin the new year by looking back at how we got into this position in the first place. To that end, let's start 2017 by going back to 1974. Over the past few years, you've often heard me reference the HISTORY and FACT of gold price suppression and manipulation. Full Story
“So what, who cares?”, you might be asking. Everyone should care, because this trend is ending. The USD/Yen currency pair is now at MASSIVE resistance. The odds of this trend continuing are now less than 20%. Which means… this move will be reversing, and stocks will be dropping, HARD. The last time this trend reversed was the early 2016 bloodbath during which stocks dropped 13% in the span of six weeks. Full Story
We have a fairy bullish setup with a weekly swing, right translated weekly cycle and a rally that should persist for a minimum of 5-8 weeks. Full Story
Gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have grown strongly in scale and popularity over the last decade and their combined gold holdings now surpass all but the largest central bank gold reserve holdings. However, its important to understand the mechanics of these gold-backed ETF investment vehicles and to appreciate what they can and can't provide to gold investors. Full Story
So, 2016 wasn’t the predicted Epocalypse, but it sure was weird! Globally, it was a year of continued economic malaise and increasing financial risks. Most notably, though, it was a year of political upheaval that pitted voters in the UK, Italy and the US in civil wars at the ballot box. Here are a few of the otherworldly highlights that typified the troubles of 2016... Full Story
So despite the fact that my actual gold portfolio, constructed in late 2015, has had a great year, it would have had an even better year if I’d taken my advice and hedged it in July with the Large Speculators at +340,000 contracts, versus Commercials short an equal amount. I did not follow my own trading advice and I took a few hits in the latter half of 2016—not big hits, but just enough to annoy me. The lesson I learned this year is just one of many I continue to learn after 40 years in the space: Trust the Commercials—they do not lose. (And listen to my own advice.) Full Story
The gold sector as represented by $HUI had a major buy signal early in 2016, but it was a price spike and no entries could be made. No consolidation with no trendline support has been established so far to set up for a long-term allocation. The copper sector also had a major buy signal in 2016. TECK went straight up, while FCX consolidated. We entered near the bottom of the consolidation range, with a 10% allocation for the long term. Full Story
In the early decades of the 19th century, a new cultural and philosophical movement emerged that embodies all that makes America great. Led chiefly by Ralph Waldo Emerson and Henry David Thoreau, American transcendentalism praises the purity of the individual and stresses the importance of self-reliance. Full Story
Although the trade initially went against buyers, subscribers who applied a simple rule avoided getting stopped out and subsequently got a ride to the 1165.50 target — precisely — for a quick gain of as much as $1400 per contract. Although the futures retraced moderately before the regular session ended, they looked poised for another leap to as high as 1174.20. That target will remain viable as long as the recent low at 1156.70 holds. Full Story
And in the opening days of 2017, the cryptocurrency has already gained a head start on other global currencies. It passed the vital $1,000 mark in the first days of New Year trading, and could be poised to three-peat for the title of best-performing currency of the year. To do it again, bitcoin prices would likely need to rise at least 30% on the year, closing in on the $1,300 mark. Will it be another extreme for 2017 – or will the bitcoin price finally settle for middle ground among other global currencies? Full Story
Quietly, while all attention was riveted on the U.S. election, gold made a notable comeback in 2016. The gain was not spectacular at 8.7%, but it was respectable, and it came after three straight down years. (Silver had an even better year with a 15.2% gain.) In addition and perhaps even more importantly, global investment demand registered its fourth largest increase since the 2011 post-crisis peak. That resurgence suggests that down years for gold did not temper the global inclination to own it. Full Story
I’ve been pretty emphatic that the $18 area is for buying GDX and $22 is for selling. From both a technical and fundamental perspective, it’s logical that gold stocks pause here ahead of the US jobs report. This pause will help them launch a second and more successful assault on the $22 - $22.50 resistance zone, after the report is released! Full Story
Precious metals are enjoying a year-end rally, with gold rising above $1,150 per ounce earlier in week and finishing above that level by Friday, snapping a three year losing streak with an 8.56 percent gain. As shown in the chart above, gold prices track very closely with real interest rates. What turned out to be a test of wills a couple days after the Fed interest rate hike in December, real rates jumped to 71 basis points, yet gold held on at $1,130 support, and real rates finally backed off below 50 basis points by year end. At the start of the year, 71 basis points of positive yield had gold pinned down almost $90 lower. Full Story
So, I have no idea how so many major countervailing forces will play out in the short term; i.e., which will hit first or hardest. What I am sure of is one very chaotic year that makes 2016 look like an opening act because the forces that oppose Trump are not going to retreat, and similar anti-establishment forces in other countries aren’t going to either. In the US, the forces opposed to Trump are greater in size (raw vote count) than the forces that put him in power, so they are also not going to retreat. When the winning side has the least actual supporters, you can probably expect a pretty fierce and weird battle from the opposition. Full Story
Today, banking regulations enacted after the 2008 financial crisis are about to be repealed as Trump and his coterie of Goldman Sachs bankers—Steve Mnuchin (former Goldman Sachs partner), now Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Bannon (former Goldman Sachs managing partner), now Trump’s chief strategist and senior counselor, and Gary Cohen (president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs), now Trump’s top economic advisor—give Wall Street’s criminal cabal even greater access to what remains of America’s wealth, bringing the nation and the world closer to a catastrophic financial collapse. Full Story
In part 2 of this Weekend Report we’ll take an indepth look at gold and especially the long term view. Again, this is just for entertainment purposes only until gold can close below a very important trendline. I’ve been following this potential scenario since shortly after the US elections. Up until the elections this pattern I’m about to show you didn’t show its self, but now it’s one of the most important chart patterns for gold that I’ve posted in several years. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 3 January, 2017
If we thought 2016 was an interesting year, 2017 will certainly top it and be even more tumultuous. With President-elect Donald Trump to head the White House in a few weeks, many in the precious metals and alternative media community believe the “WORST IS OVER.” This is one hell of a lousy assumption. Matter-a-fact, President-elect Trump will likely precipitate the collapse quicker than a Clinton regime. Why? Because Trump has no idea just how much the U.S. financial and economic system are propped up. When Trump starts to open the massive “CAN OF WORMS” in the U.S. government, this will likely cause serious dislocations in the entire system. Full Story
Goldseek.com begins the 12th consecutive year on the digital airwaves with Bob Hoye, of Institutional Advisors. US equities have reached frothy levels during the end-of-year rally making a correction likely in the New Year. Dr. Martenson from PeakProsperity.com outlines the factors sending the crude oil market skyward. Reports indicate that OPEC members agreed with non-OPEC nations to curtail output. Full Story
In accordance with the current blame-game promoted by the “fake news” diversions: We can blame Russia for HRC losing the election, releasing scandalous emails that the Democratic National Committee desperately wishes had remained private, the election of Trump, NSA spying on everyone, global terrorism, excess debt in the western world, the failure of hope and change, Federal Reserve monetary policy, unemployment, weak silver prices, strong stock markets, global bond market correction, the coming recession, derivatives disasters, slowing retail sales, Italian banking, cold weather, one brutally assassinated reindeer no longer able to pull Santa’s sleigh and a tardy delivery of goodies from the Easter Bunny next year… Full Story
The globalists want to install Chinese style communism in America, and all around the world, as they are convinced authoritarian control of the proletariat will sustain ‘the party’ – the status quo. At least they want to believe that, because conveniently such a manifestation might maintain their ‘materialistic world’ slightly longer, which is of course why this movement has the support of the statist (global) corporate estate. Full Story
One of life’s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you’d like them to. That’s where the sayings “Being too early is the same thing as being wrong” and “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” come from. A current case in point is gold. After the metal’s decade-long bull market, a correction was inevitable. But when it finally came, rather than being short and cathartic it was long and grinding, stretching from 2012 through 2015 and causing many who got back in prematurely to eventually walk away in disgust. Full Story
In the past month, I’ve espoused many beliefs of what 2017 will bring – deeming it to likely be a year of money printing and draconian government actions. In fact, following an historic year of political, economic, and monetary change, the best possible description for what I anticipate in the next 12 months, is “monetary revolution.” Which, in turn, may catalyze the most dramatic status quo changes of our lifetimes, for anyone born in the post-War era. Full Story
We’ve reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we’re at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight. I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017 – optimistic, meaning I think we Muddle Through – but that’s a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. And since my annual forecast has been “Muddle Through” for about six years now (which has been turned out to be the correct forecast), then, given all the speed bumps in front of us, this could be the year where I’m spectacularly wrong. Midcourse corrections may be warranted. Full Story
As it often has done before, Germany's Bundesbank has released news at Christmastime to avoid critical examination and discussion, this time news about its repatriation of the nation's gold reserves. The repatriated tonnage volume reported -- "approximately 200 tonnes," bringing the total of gold repatriated to approximately 1,580 tonnes or 47 percent of Germany's gold reserves -- is OK, not spectacular. And this month there was far more important news about Germany's gold, though it was overlooked. Full Story
I can’t imagine substitute silver sellers stepping forward to replace them except at very high prices. As it stands now, eight commercial traders, many of them banks, hold a net short position of 85,000 contracts or 425 million ounces. There’s nobody to take their place at these low prices. JPMorgan figured all this out long ago and that’s one of the reasons they bought so much physical silver. There was no other way for them to cover without sending silver into orbit. You’re truly looking at the opportunity of a lifetime with silver. You just have to relax and let it play out. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 January, 2017
Let’s put the CBO ten-year budget forecasts into perspective. According to their 2008-2017 budget made in 2007, they forecasted the total pubic debt would fall from $4.995 trillion in 2008 to $4.274 trillion in 2017. It didn’t. Instead it is forecasted to jump by $10 trillion to $14.743 trillion in 2017. Again, the CBO understated the rising public debt by $10 trillion. Full Story
Europeans must have been delighted to discover that one thing is working as well as it has since the start of the Great Recession. Behemoth banks that are failing are still able to pay their Christmas bonuses to their top executives and give nice dividends to their shareholders thanks to Super Mario Draghi. Full Story
None of these, not even China, are by themselves enough to destabilize a global financial system that’s still awash in new credit. But all three at once? Maybe. And of course there are more potential eruptions waiting in the wings, what with the Italian bank bail-out getting harder as deposits flee those sinking ships and US stocks at record levels and thus (if – an admittedly big if – history is still a reliable guide) due for a correction. So whether or not these current dramas amount to anything memorable, they clearly represent limits on the global financial bubble. More such limits will emerge shortly. Full Story
Most people regard governments and their central banks as forces for the good. Financial crises and suchlike are therefore blamed on capitalism, and people believe our leaders do their best to pick up the pieces from market failures, because they are elected to promote the public good. The reality is very different, with governments acting not in the interests of their electors, but in the interest of the preservation of the administration. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 2 January, 2017
Gold’s poor performance during the second half of 2016 was consistent with what I refer to as the true fundamentals*. This means that it wasn’t the result of downward manipulation. That being said, the great thing about believing that market trends have almost nothing to do with “fundamentals” and almost everything to do with manipulation is that you never have to be wrong. If any market goes against you it was due to the distortive effects of manipulation rather than a fatal flaw in your analysis. Full Story
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