2011 was remarkable in many ways for the precious metals markets. Gold soared to new highs in early September, hitting at an intraday record of $1,920/ounce on the fifth. Silver screamed to within a hair of $50 on April 28. Corrections ensued, and the metals ended the year on a disappointing note for silver and an underwhelming note for gold. Equities for the sector were down, to way down for junior ventures, logging their worst annual return since 2008. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Alain-Jean Beauregard - 6 January, 2012
Well-structured deals, quality assets and high-octane management teams with "enough cash to get through the next year or two" are what Pathfinder Asset Management Limited's Associate Portfolio Manager Taylor MacDonald is looking for. Read more about why he is bullish about the market in the long term in this exclusive Gold Report interview. Full Story
By: Euro Pacific Capital Research - 6 January, 2012
2011 began as a year with much promise for investors. After losing nearly 40% in 2008, the S&P 500 gained nearly 20% in 2009 and 13% in 2010. These results convinced many that a long steady recovery from 2008 was ongoing. The first six weeks of 2011, which saw a healthy 6% gain in the S&P 500, seemed to confirm this expectation. Most attributed the stock gains to an overriding belief that the Great Recession was finally winding down. But then a new chapter set in. Full Story
During the 12 year history of this bull market in gold, only about 5% of the time did we see gold trading below its 200DMA, and each time it turned out to be a prime buying opportunity. (Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated). Full Story
Foreign Central Bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to Record lows, but, notwithstanding this Massive Central Bank selling, the (ostensible) demand for these U.S. Treasuries is so great that their Prices are near record Highs. A Conundrum!! The Solution to which reveals considerable Profit Opportunities and Wealth Protection Essentials described here, as well as the continuing disinformation published by Official Sources. Full Story
PAST PERFORMANCE is no guide to the future. But if you don't study history, just what will you track instead? December 2011 marked the fifth anniversary of the end of Ownit Mortgage Solutions – a small lender in the big scheme, but "maybe the canary in the coalmine," according to one mortgage-backed security manager back at the end of 2006. Full Story
Today, I’d like to focus on one important idea: the direct relationship between the rising price of gold and the rising levels of government debt that result in currency debasement. Since we measure investment performance in currencies a clear understanding of the outlook for currencies is critical. In order to understand gold’s relationship, it’s important to understand that gold is money. It is not simply an industrial commodity like copper, or zinc. It trades on the currency desks of most major banks—not on their commodities desks. The turnover at the London Bullion Market Association is over $37 billion per day, and volume is estimated at 5-7 times that amount – clearly, this is not jewellery demand. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 6 January, 2012
Gold had a tough December, falling 10.5% to grind along near its worst levels since July. This sparked hyper-bearish sentiment and end-of-gold’s-secular-bull talk. Naturally gold stocks fared even worse in this rampant gold pessimism, with the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunging 14.7%. But this selling was radically overdone, as compared to gold’s absolute levels gold stocks remain incredibly cheap. Full Story
The new year started off with a bang with precious metals out-shining the competition. Is this a harbinger of things to come? We think so and we are not alone. Forecasts for gold for 2012 include a price per ounce of $2,200 by Morgan Stanley, $2,050 by UBS, and $2,000 by Barclays. Full Story
About it every 35 to 40 days we have a major profit-taking event occur in the stock market. In bull markets that's all it is, a profit-taking event. In a bear market it is a resumption of the cyclical downtrend triggered by deteriorating fundamentals. It still remains to be seen whether or not stocks have rolled over into another cyclical bear market. Full Story
Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Philipp Hildebrand finds himself in the hot seat. SNB rules prohibit his family from trading based on non-public monetary and foreign exchange intentions of the SNB (c.f. §4). His wife netted a 60,000 Swiss franc profit buying, then selling U.S. dollars, all within a month; her husband’s intervention in the currency market was mostly responsible for the gain. Arguably, she traded to make a profit, publicly explaining, “what motivated me to buy dollars was the fact that it was at a record low and was almost ridiculously cheap”. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the Herd - 6 January, 2012
Mark Twain called the late nineteenth century the "Gilded Age” - meaning that the period was golden on the surface but underneath the thin veneer was a cesspool of greed and graft, shady business practices, scandal plagued politics and overt displays of upper class consumerism and materialism. Mrs. Stuyvesant Fish threw a dinner party to honor her dog who wore a $15,000 diamond collar to the event. A lucky dog was sporting diamonds while 11 million of the nation's 12 million families earned less than $1200 per year in 1880 - their average annual income was $380 which was well below the poverty line. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 6 January, 2012
One of the people who has most influenced my life is Doug Casey. Stumbling upon his writing somewhere around 2003, it was like a whole new world opened to me. He said a lot of the things I had been thinking... I just never knew it was okay to actually say them! Soon after, as I learned more about liberty, I came across another person who, it seemed, on a bi-weekly basis made clear how the economic world worked and made a big impact on the way I saw the world. He was saying things that I certainly never heard in the "mainstream".. a mainstream that never seemed to make any sense. His name is Steven Saville and he writes The Speculative Investor newsletter. Full Story
March silver has been flirting with backwardation since the end of 2011, and today it has moved more firmly into backwardated territory. This is extremely bullish for silver, and let me explain why. Backwardation means (and I am oversimplifying a bit here) that a futures contract is cheaper than buying the physical good in the cash market. To understand the meaning of this, the first question is this. Is it possible to warehouse the good? If not, then the futures market is simply the market's opinion of what the price is likely to be on the contract expiration. I am not going to discuss this case any further, as it is not that interesting and it is not germane to silver. Full Story
In the Rick’s Picks forum, Gary Leibowitz is a square peg in a round hole. A steadfast Obama supporter, his outlook for the economy is almost as annoying. He actually thinks we’ll muddle through 2012 without a global financial collapse and believes the U.S. economy is on the mend. Here’s Gary in his own words, posting to the forum yesterday: “As Obama is being bashed for his outrageous spending spree over these last three years, the economy is showing improvement across the board. The dollar has to do well in this scenario, which will place pressure on commodities. The corporate earnings picture is a bit more cloudy. Overseas exposure will certainly hurt the bottom line.” Full Story
2012 could be a dangerous year. There are too many areas where things could go wrong. But if this forecast is correct, the first few months of the year could see a short squeeze that pushes the market higher. The short squeeze would be based on economic numbers that show no recession on the horizon, Europe holding together, and the Iran/US sabre rattling to stay just that – sabre rattling. But the cycles in the second half of the year bode poorly, and that is when some unforeseen event could sideswipe the market. However, one thing is for sure for 2012. That it is not the “End Times” as some suggests the Mayan calendar predicts. Full Story
After all, in spite of some short-term fixes, there remains no real resolution to the sovereign debt issues in many European countries. We're certainly not spending less money in the US, and now we're bailing out Europe via currency swaps with the European Central Bank. Shouldn't gold be rising? Yes, but nothing happens in a vacuum. There are some simple explanations as to why gold remains in a funk. Full Story
All bull markets have to endure a plethora of corrections and all bull markets have to endure a handful of major corrections. The gold stocks are no different. In fact, due to the nature of the mining business and the high-beta status of these stocks, it is very easy for investors to forget that they (the gold stocks) are in a real structural bull market. Corrections and crashes are commonplace and yes, even in a bull market. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 5 January, 2012
For such a wonderful year for precious metals investors, the final calendar quarter left little to celebrate. Just as people now take for granted that their phones will also take pictures, play music, and surf the internet, many investors have come to expect gold and silver to move up in a straight line. Full Story
In 2012, policy makers around the world may be driven by the realization that the theme of 2011 was not a Euro-specific crisis, but simply another stage in a global financial crisis. Central bankers may ramp up their printing presses in an effort to limit "contagion" concerns. As such, the currency markets may be the purest way to take a view on the "mania" of policy makers. Market movements may continue to be largely driven by political rhetoric, rather than company earnings announcements or economic data. We don't believe this trend will abate over the foreseeable future, especially given the likely leadership changes throughout several G-7 nations. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 5 January, 2012
Canada's National Post reports today that commodity market letter writer Dennis Gartman has admitted a mistake in his gold trading advice and has concluded that gold's bull market continues after all. While it's always encouraging to find that experts can admit mistakes, as only people who admit mistakes can be trusted, GATA's objective isn't to identify mistaken market calls in the monetary metals markets. Full Story
John Bogle is well known in the investment community. At Vanguard, he completely changed the way investors think about Wall Street. He has legions of fans, fans who label themselves as “Bogleheads,” reflecting their staunch acceptance of his main investment thesis: turnover kills. Full Story
Here’s a piece of advice for frustrated day traders: try night trading. While we’d be the first to concede that scalping at any hour of the day will never be easy pickings, many opportunities that we see in the middle of the night seem less challenging than the ones served up intraday. An obvious reason is that there just isn’t as much competition. To be sure, the predators who work the graveyard shift are not the kind of guys you’d want to sit down with at a poker table. They have special skills, like the adaptations of lizards and insects that live in the desert. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 4 January, 2012
If traders in the commodities markets were to check into a Psyche ward, the files would no doubt read “Bi-Polar” or Schizophrenic.” This is so, because commodity traders have a habit of fixating on a set of data one day, and then quickly forgetting about the data the very next day, and re-focusing on something else. Market sentiment often turns on a dime, and without notice. This shifting of sentiment in commodity futures is nothing new, of course. That’s why for decades, dabbling in commodities was considered too risky for most investors, since sentiment, by definition, is unpredictable and impossible to measure. Full Story
Doug, a lot of readers have been asking for guidance on how to know when it's time to exit center stage and hunker down in some safe place. Few people want to hide from the world in a cabin in the woods while life goes on in the mainstream, but nobody wants to get caught once the gates clang shut on the police state the US is becoming. How do you know when it's time to go? Full Story
For the first time in history, Silver Eagle & Maple Leaf sales will surpass domestic silver production in the U.S. and Canada in 2011. The demand for American Silver Eagles and Canadian Maple Leaf coins has increased tremendously over the past several years. 2011 will be the first year in which official coin sales will surpass domestic silver production in both countries. Full Story
So why gold and silver – so far, at least – for UK investors and savers since 2007...? Because they are physical property, rather than anyone else's financial promise, gold and silver cannot go bust, unlike Britain's ailing banks or even neighboring governments across the Channel. Silver and gold bullion are also rare and tightly supplied, unlike the flood of money from the Bank of England, franctically trying to prop up the UK's banking system. Full Story
If you haven’t yet cashed in your chips, you should. It’s almost midnight and the casino owners are worried. A run on the cashier’s window would show them to be bankrupt; the casino’s only assets being customer IOUs and banks upon banks of increasingly worn chip-making machines. The management’s recent offer of unlimited chips to the money changers still on the floor was done in the desperate hope it would convince the remaining gamblers of the house’s solvency. It won’t work. It’s too late. It’s 2012. Buy gold, buy silver, have faith. Full Story
The Dow is currently trading close to its all-time high, and it is my opinion that gold will step into the next phase of this bull market when the Dow starts to fall. A falling Dow, with weak economic conditions, will be the impetus for the next massive rally in gold, just like it was in previous bull markets. A falling and/or weak Dow will in some way represent the diverting of value from stocks to gold. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 4 January, 2012
It is now obvious to alert observers that the ECR’s new long-term refinancing program, LTRO, is an end-run quantitative easing program. The bankers and politicians would not dare call it what it really is. Who would not want 3-year loans at 1%? Then there is Target 2, where the Bundesbank has secretly but legally, lent the ECB $640 billion. That money will be shared as a bailout for the six euro zone nations, which are on the edge of bankruptcy. Full Story
Back in 2009 I began keeping track of those financial analysts, economists, academics and commentators who were of the opinion that it was just a matter of time before gold reached a parabolic peak price well in excess of the prevailing price. As time passed the list grew dramatically and at last count numbered 140 such individuals who have gone on record as saying that gold will go to at least $3,000 – and as high as $20,000 - before the gold bubble finally pops. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 4 January, 2012
It’s been 54 full revolutions since Ayn Rand wrote Atlas Shrugged – from whence the above quote comes. And, the evils that she felt were responsible for society’s downfall in the 1950s have only grown stronger. In fact, the military industrial complex was only gaining critical mass at the time. It had not yet become the murderous behemoth that has grown into a parasitic bureaucracy. Even the dollar was still linked to a makeshift gold standard under Bretton Woods – a system under which the US government pretended its currency was still gold redeemable, even though it had been a quarter of a century since American tax slaves (citizens) were last allowed to use gold as money. Full Story
You could almost wonder where the financial markets found their New Year cheer yesterday. It can’t last. The accumulation of negative factors by the end of last year was overwhelming and global trade is already in a slowdown. There is a horrible logic carrying this forward into 2012 with debts only growing bigger and bigger, Greece close to breaking point and plenty of geo-political problems to unsettle the Middle East and the all important oil price. Perhaps there is always a tendency to see the bright side of life after a holiday break but only a fool would invest money when feeling over-optimistic. Full Story
It’s days like yesterday that seem to suggest the central banks could keep stocks afloat more or less indefinitely. How can shares possibly go down as long as there’s a sea of digital dollars to support institutional players with no better use for interest-free money? Actually, it took relatively few dollars to push the Dow Industrials up 260 points at the apex of yesterday’s short-squeeze. That’s because the rally was all but over minutes after it began. Full Story
Central banks around the globe are increasing their gold reserves with the passing of each day. Before 2009 central banks were net sellers of gold with china, India and other nations as net buyers. Some are explicitly doing it while others are implicit. The reasons are political as well as financial. Just remember that central banks invest only for the long term, say five years or more. Full Story
2011 was both an amazing and disappointing year for silver investors. The most disappointed of all are those who bought in during the April highs, when silver almost reached $50. However, what these investors need to remember is that not too long ago, people were fretting over changes in prices of ten cents or less. Not too far down the road, the difference between $29 silver and $50 silver will also seem rather minimal. Full Story
Several Wall Street firms have recently published their gold price forecasts for 2012. Goldman Sachs predicts the price of gold will peak at $1,900 per ounce and average $1,810 per ounce in the coming year. Goldman attributes its bullish gold price outlook to further net buying by central banks and strong physical demand from investors, the ongoing negative real interest rate environment in the U.S., and continued European sovereign debt and global recessionary concerns. Full Story
The 2012 phase of the great gold war is underway. Click today's gold chart now, to watch gold start the year in winning fashion. A small band of dollar bug “snipers” sit in the $1600 price zone, but don’t expect them to draw much blood from our golden warriors. Note the solid positioning of the MACD here. The excellent action in gold is being mirrored by silver. You need a solid two month time frame between the two bottoms to have a real double bottom chart pattern. Silver has about three months between the bottoms in place, which is acceptable. Full Story
Of the legions of investors who are welcoming a fresh start to the year after the choppy and directionless market of 2011, perhaps gold stock investors are the most eager. Gold stocks had a volatile year last year with no progress made on the upside. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was rangebound between 500 and 600 for the whole year, with 3 failed breakouts above 600. As if to put a cherry on top of a depressing year for gold stock investors, the HUI closed down -14.7% for the month of December, which was the worst December for the HUI since the beginning of this gold bull market. Full Story
We see this far more as a rebound from oversold price levels with hedge funds keen to get back into this asset class than a response to some bellicose statements from Iran or for that matter the new leadership in North Korea. Gold and silver’s fundamental appeal has not lost its shine. Indeed, the money printing by global central banks is lining precious metals up for some huge advances in the near future. Full Story
Gold and silver outperformed every commodity in 2011. This trend may or not continue this year. Silver once again was trailing behind on poor global economic fundamentals. Indian stock markets took a severe beating as foreign investors pulled away from the Indian markets. Full Story
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. GUESTS: Dr. Stephen Leeb, Leeb Capital Management Steve Forbes, How Capital Will Save Us & Forbes.com Full Story
According to faulty interpretations of Mayan calendars, 2012 is supposed to bring with it the demise of humanity. Fortunately for us, this apocalyptic myth, like so many, is based on a superficial interpretation of the Mayan calendar. Like many stories based on a lie, this one nonetheless gains traction in the popular imagination thanks to our fascination with anything apocalyptic. Full Story
The lovely Miss Puddy accompanied me to the latest Sherlock Holmes movie last night. In the movie a series of bombings supposedly by anarchist was terrorizing Europe. This begs the question, what is an anarchist? Webster defines anarchy as: a. absence of government, b. state of lawlessness due to absence of government or c. utopian society who enjoy complete freedom without government. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 2 January, 2012
Last week, as most Americans were celebrating the holidays with family and friends, the Obama Administration announced plans to seek yet another debt ceiling increase in the New Year. While some fiscal conservatives will try to block this increase, their efforts are designed to fail thanks to the procedure set up by the last debt ceiling negotiations. Congress would have to pass a joint resolution opposing the increase, which the president could simply veto. Thus, an additional $1.2 trillion on top of our already unsustainable debt is a foregone conclusion. Our Gross Domestic Product continues to contract and now stands at $14.5 trillion. The debt already far exceeds that and will soon hit the new ceiling of $16.39 trillion. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 January, 2012
We proved that, contrary to its many protests that it hardly has anything to do with gold, the Fed in fact has many gold secrets that it is determined to keep, and we pried two big secrets out of the central bank -- that it has gold swap arrangements with foreign banks and that it was represented at the secret April 1997 meeting of the G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee, at which central bankers conspired to coordinate their gold market policies: Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 2 January, 2012
Public institutions worldwide are fighting ratings downgrades foremost of which is France, the US and, of course, sovereigns and banks worldwide. Miracles of miracles finally the rating agencies are doing their jobs. The caper they pulled in collusion with Wall Street in rating mortgage securities should have put them all in jail for life. We’ll call these efforts makeup time for their previous sins, which they never were prosecuted for. Full Story
Now that my subscribers and I are fully into bullish positions in the precious metals sector, I hope they won't mind me telling you that I called for the bottom in Gold stocks on Thursday morning (12/29). I believe the bottom is in for silver, Gold and their respective stocks, although the metals may need a re-test of the bottom while I think Gold or silver stocks (as sectors) will only make higher lows on any corrective action. Full Story
Washington has borrowed more heavily than any planter ever dared to or could do. Why so much debt? To get more leverage today. What is being leveraged? Promises. Voters trade votes for government promises. This system requires an ever-increasing supply of slaves in order to pay the interest on the debt. Problem: the rate of population growth is slowing. There will not be enough slaves to pay off the debt. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 2 January, 2012
Which path will we take? If we could only grow our way out of our sovereign debt problems. But growing debt creates even more problems if not dealt with, making it even more difficult to deal with; yet getting the debt and deficit under control brings its own form of pain. As I keep pointing out, there are no easy choices left. Some countries must choose between difficult and very bad, and others are faced with either disaster or calamity. Greece simply gets to choose what it wants to be the cause of a depression. Long and slow or fast and deep? Choose wisely. Full Story
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