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By: David Haggith - 21 July, 2019|
News of significant recessionary drops in the US became as relentless this past week as the ping, ping, pang of drips from a leaking ceiling hitting pans in the New York Stock Exchange. I’ve been saying you would hear the sounds of recession everywhere as soon as the second-quarter earnings reporting season began this summer. Here we are, and here’s a list of the week’s downbeat economic news that quickly terminated the S&P 500’s rally … right where I said it would end … slightly above its previous summit.
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 21 July, 2019|
Longer and Weaker
New York, New York, Maine, and Montana Full Story
By: Willem Middelkoop - 18 July, 2019|
Last year 22 central banks, situated largely to the east of Germany, bought the largest amount of gold since 1967, the year the London Gold Pool collapsed. The gold repatriations by many European countries of the last few years are another sign that we are reaching the end of four decades of monetary calm. This could bring about the largest monetary changes since the closing of the gold window by U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1971.
The United States wants its fiat dollar system to prevail for as long as possible. It has every interest in preventing a "rush out of dollars toward gold," as happened in the 1970s. Since then bankers have been trying to exercise control over the precious metal's price. This war on gold has been ongoing for almost 100 years but gained traction in the 1960s with the forming of the London Gold Pool, whose members included the US, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and Switzerland. Full Story
By: Stefan Gleason, Money Metals Exchange - 17 July, 2019|
President Trump moved recently to nominate an avowed sound money advocate, Judy Shelton, to the Federal Reserve Board. That triggered a flurry of superficial and derisive references in the controlled media to Shelton’s past support of a gold standard.
For example, CBS News described her as “a believer in the return to the gold standard, a money policy abandoned by the U.S. in 1971.” According to the story, “mainstream economists believe it's a fringe view.”
As the “mainstream” media portrays sound money advocates, we apparently are nostalgic for the monetary system that existed all the way up until 1971. Full Story
By: Dave Kranzler - 16 July, 2019|
It was reported by Bloomberg that Deutsche Bank clients – mostly hedge funds – are pulling $1 billion in capital per day from the collapsing bank. Still no details have emerged on the how the “bad bank” holding company will be funded or what will go into it. What we do know is the original proposal for a bad bank was for $43 billion in bad assets. That number has bubbled up to a proposed $74 billion. In truth, no one knows for sure the degree to which DB’s derivatives holdings are radioactive. Disgraced former CEO, Anshu Jain, admitted that near the end of his failed tenure. Full Story
By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals - 16 July, 2019|
However, we abandoned this approach due to a problem that the falling interest rate—which is going on just about 40 years!—causes assets to rise in value. The Fed cannot print real wealth of course (though people certainly feel richer!) But its falling interest rate causes asset prices to rise. And this gain in nominal dollar value is misleading, the perceived gain in wealth is illusory.
Unfortunately, belief that this is real wealth is reinforced by two factors. One, is simple confirmation bias and wishful thinking. Everyone sees the rising value of their properties or shares and wants to believe they are richer. Two, the purchasing power paradigm encourages them to think of the liquidation value of their assets divided by the cost of living. They think to measure the dollar as the inverse of consumer prices. So if consumer prices are not rising too much, but asset prices are skyrocketing, they feel richer. Full Story
By: Clint Siegner - 16 July, 2019|
Any public debate over increasing the federal debt ceiling will be especially awkward for Republicans. Getting caught voting for trillions more in borrowing is not a good look – especially after years of screeching about deficits when the Democrats were in control.
However, regardless of what happens in the weeks ahead, the size of Federal deficits and debt probably can’t be swept under the rug for too much longer. America is one recession away from serious trouble. Full Story
By: SRSrocco - 16 July, 2019|
After gold broke above a critical resistance level, held for the past five years, precious metals’ investors are now wondering, “what’s in store for silver?” While gold surged from $1,340 to $1,440 in just one week last month, silver only went up a mere $0.70. Thus, the Gold-Silver ratio increased from 89/1 to 94/1, in the same five-day period.
So, the BIG QUESTION many precious metals investors are asking, “Is silver going to follow gold’s move higher?” And, in several price trends in the past, silver does follow gold higher but also outperforms the yellow metal in the later stage. Full Story
By: David Chapman - 15 July, 2019|
Once again Fed Chair Jerome Powell was in the spotlight with his testimony before congress highlighted by his ongoing feud with President Donald Trump. The feud is unprecedented. Deutsche Bank was also in the spotlight this past week and is featured in our Chart of the Week.
The markets soared once again to new all-time highs even as it is occurring against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, trade wars and more. Divergences are popping up everywhere. We feature the broadening top and even a huge ascending wedge that appears to be forming in the market. The peaks may have been achieved as we push along the top of the channel. Our recession watch spread widened this past week as 10-year yields rose and 2-year yields fell.
Gold and the precious metals all rose as expectations rise for a Fed rate cut at the July FOMC. And finally oil prices rose with tensions in the Gulf and a hurricane threatening the Louisiana coast. Full Story
By: Ted Butler - 15 July, 2019|
The 4 big concentrated silver longs, which I have been writing about for nearly a month, further reduced their net long position by 3882 contracts to 62,707 contracts. The only reporting category to have liquidated enough (or any real) number of contracts in the reporting week were managed money traders, proving conclusively that managed money traders held a significant percentage of the very strange concentrated net long position in COMEX silver. How else could I have expected managed money long liquidation by the 4 concentrated longs on Monday? Full Story
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